Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season doesn't really perk up until late Sunday afternoon.
The Thursday Night Football matchup pits a surging Jacksonville Jaguars team against a Baltimore Ravens squad forced to start an undrafted rookie at quarterback. The early slate Sunday includes a backup extravaganza between the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles
as well as mismatches like Jets-Chiefs and Lions-Dolphins.But 4:30 p.m. Eastern? That's when we get to see which erstwhile contender might be for real when the Green Bay Packers face the New England Patriots. Sunday night brings the new-look Chicago Bears against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that didn't need to complete a single pass last week (OK, a bit of a stretch but should still be fun). And on Monday,
Josh Allen takes on the league's best, most aggressive defense.
That's made Week 9 a bit easier to predict, but it's not chalk across the board on our end.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, who is THRIVING this year, and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 9 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Houston Texans (-4.5) over the Los Angeles Chargers
We haven't burned Houston yet in my quest to turn what should be the easiest pick of the week into a coin flip. Now the Texans are coming off a bye and facing the shattered remnants of the Chargers on a home field that will be even more listless than usual in Los Angeles. DeMeco Ryans has a path from 2-5 to 6-5 over the next four weeks (against the Chargers, Browns, Colts and Ravens). He's not going to collapse on the first step.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 4-4
Hardest favorite to back: New England Patriots (-3) over the Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady returns to Foxborough, which Fox would like you to believe is a momentous occasion but isn't the first time he's been back to Gillette Stadium. The bigger story is two 5-3 teams have stabilized after iffy starts and a Drake Maye-Jordan Love shootout could be the best game of the year. Or, the Patriots' injuries could finally sink them back to "pretender" status.
Why I like this pick:
The Patriots have only lost once at home in the last 58 weeks (to the Buffalo Bills). Maye has been able to make adjustments on the fly, elevating targets like Eli Raridon, Pop Douglas and Kyle Williams the last few weeks with A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins all missing time due to injury. That includes a comeback effort in Week 8, albeit against a bad Miami Dolphins team.
The Packers have the same problem many Matt LaFleur teams have had; they struggle to close out games. The run attack is a disaster. No one trusts Trey Smack with an end-of-half field goal at this point, let alone one that could decide a game in the fourth quarter.
Why I don't like this pick:
New England has yet to play a game without committing a turnover. Green Bay forces them more than all but one other team in the NFL. That leaves a top 10 defense to clean up a Patriot offense potentially missing its top three wideouts, its 1b running back and both its starting guards.
The Patriots defense is solid, but not spectacular. Jordan Love is playing the best football of his life, taking shots downfield with incredible touch and accuracy. Granted, far too many of those throws wind up dropped, but that hasn't deterred him from taking risks capable of paying off in a massive way.
- Last week: 0-2
- Season to date: 6-2
Upset pick of the week: Atlanta Falcons (+3) over the Cincinnati Bengals
Last week's upset pick failed to account for a monsoon in Tampa. Still, it was worth it just to see Michael Penix Jr. throw more interceptions than the Buccaneers had pass attempts. AND YET, I AM ON THE FALCONS FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK.
Well, let's unpack just how dumb I am.
Why I like this pick:
The Bengals keep touching the stove. Cincinnati just gave up 121 yards and two touchdowns to Tony Pollard and now has to face Bijan Robinson. That defense was the backdrop for the biggest game of Cam Ward's career and now has to face an angry Michael Penix Jr. who goes from rainstorms to the cozy confines of Madrid, which... huh actually I don't know how that's gonna affect things.
The Falcons have quietly engineered a borderline top 10 defense and have only allowed 11 passing touchdowns this fall. That will place some of the onus on a run game that's underwhelmed behind the average efforts of Chase Brown. The Bengals' best win this season is over... the Buccaneers? The Lamar Jackson-less Ravens? The Dolphins or Titans? Ooooof, that resume.
Why I don't like this pick:
It's the Falcons. Joe Burrow just racked up about 1,000 yards on his own to fend off the Titans last week. The Cincinnati secondary is capable of shutting down a top-heavy receiving corps. It's the Falcons.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-7 (yeeeesh)
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 9: Packers-Patriots has us torn in otherwise chalky week
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