As expected, the high scoring of Week 1 cooled off a bit the second week of the season, with 10 of the 16 games going under the total. And with that, we have a bigger sample on what each team brings to the table, which means we can really start locking in on who will or won't contribute to high-scoring outcomes.
I was a game better in Week 2, going 7-6 on my picks, though I whiffed by a lot on my biggest miss. Even if Caleb Williams didn't get hurt, the Bears-Vikings game wasn't coming anywhere close to a 48.5-point total that was the second-highest of Sunday's games. The final was 9-3, though to be fair to me, weather played a big part in that.
In Week 3, I'm just hoping to avoid another whiff like that.
Week 3 over/under picks
Week 2 record: 7-6
2026 record: 13-12
Favorite over: Chargers at Bills over 50.5
2026
record: 2-0
Look, we're all down on the Chargers at the moment, and rightfully so. I'm not sure how much they'll actually contribute to this total. But I don't think they'll need to add much considering what the Bills will likely do on their own as a team averaging a league-best 38.5 points per game. Just in case the Chargers do need to chip in, though, it helps to be playing a team also allowing more than 30 points per game.
Favorite under: Cardinals at 49ers under 48
2026 record: 1-1
These teams are a combined 3-1 to the under this season, and this is the highest total of any game either has played. But the biggest reason I'm doubting their collective ability to hit this number is because San Francisco's defense as been extremely good. As likely as I think it is for the Niners continue their strong offensive play, I don't see the Cards keeping up enough to threaten this total.
Least favorite pick: Jets at Lions under 48
2026 record: 0-2
If my quick scrub through the Covers.com database is accurate, the Jets haven't played in a game with a total this high since the 2021 season. Of course, I'm taking the under. That said, his bloated total didn't come from out of nowhere. We already know how dynamic Detroit's offense is, and Geno Smith has New York looking competent enough to exploit the Lions' bad defense. This could truly go either way.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL over/under predictions for every total in Week 3
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