Bo Nix, Matthew Stafford and the grossest NFL quarterbacks of Week 1

One week does not make a season. If it did, Baker Mayfield would have a 2024 NFL MVP on his mantel.

Lopsided matchups, rosters still rounding into form and the ebbs and flows of the gridiron make one game entirely too small a sample size to judge. But it can give a good idea of which passers lived up to their standard to open the 2026 campaign, which rose above and which ones struggled the most.

There's no perfect metric for a quarterback's impact, but expected points added (EPA) helps measure their ability to swing the outcome of a game through the air, on the ground and through avoiding negative plays. Last year, EPA told us Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford were a cut above the rest of the league's quarterbacks in the regular season, netting

151.3 and 120.3 EPA, respectfully. No one else in the league topped triple digits.

We can use EPA to help dissect which quarterbacks underwhelmed the hardest in their debut. By comparing their Week 1 EPA across their 2025 averages, we get a better idea of whose fans should be most annoyed. And so, we end up with a "worst QBs" list that doesn't include Deshaun Watson or Cooper Rush, simply because their standards are subterranean. You have to be at least decent — or otherworldly awful — to wind up in the gross QB rankings.

We'll also look at completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which gives you a good idea of which quarterbacks are making tough throws (and, in some cases, being bailed out by exceptional catches). All data come from NFL Pro.

We'll also keep a running tally of the times each quarterback lands here. We'll score that placement track meet style — 10 points for first place, then eight, six, four, two and one — in order to figure out who was truly 2026's grossest passer.

Honorable mention: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

2025 EPA/game: -1.4
Week 1 EPA: -15
Difference: 13.6 points worse
2026 CPOE: -0.9 percent
Week 1 CPOE: -0.8 percent
Difference: 0.1 points better

Love handled pressure well, until suddenly he didn't. The Packers collapse was embarrassing (and familiar), but wasn't enough to crack the top-five disappointments of Week 1.

5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) fumbles the ball as he runs in the second quarter of the NFL Week 1 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026.

2025 EPA/game: -0.2
Week 1 EPA: -13
Difference: 12.8 points worse
2026 CPOE: -1.7 percent
Week 1 CPOE: 15.4 percent
Difference: 17.1 points better

Mayfield had a sterling CPOE, but his first game after signing a $165 million extension in Tampa was a clunker. He struggled to spread the field, either completing short passes toward the sideline or intermediate throws over the middle with little in between. Eleven of his 23 completions came behind the line of scrimmage, which placed a governor on his impact despite a 23-for-28 performance.

His 4.7 air yards per throw was a steep decrease from his 2025 average (8.1 yards). There was a connection here to a revamped Cincinnati Bengals pass rush; Cincy sacked him four times and generated pressure on nearly 40 percent of his dropbacks, with new arrivals Jonathan Allen and Boye Maye each notching one apiece. Ultimately, Mayfield wound up here not just because of low-impact passing, but because he fumbled thrice, losing each one.

Ball belongs to us. pic.twitter.com/INCwEqLY4x
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 14, 2026

Those three turnovers — one that resulted in a defensive touchdown and one into the Bengals' end zone, created -17.9 EPA all on their own. It's safe to say that luck won't persist, but Mayfield's misadventures against pressure bear further observation.

4. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

2025 EPA/game: -1.4
Week 1 EPA: -15
Difference: 13.6 points worse
2026 CPOE: -0.9 percent
Week 1 CPOE: -0.8 percent
Difference: 0.1 points better

This number is at least a bit unfair to Rodgers. He did what the Steelers needed to do to beat an overmatched Atlanta Falcons team. His 9.5 air yards per attempt were his highest in a black and yellow uniform. When Atlanta blitzed — which was, remarkably, only FIVE TIMES, per NFL Pro — he stood in the pocket and unleashed throws downfield (a 14.4-yard average target distance, resulting in four receptions and 72 yards).

Despite dialing up more downfield throws, Rodgers still needed 40 attempts to reach 220 yards. He led a single touchdown drive. In the second half, with a chance to ice the game, he converted a single third or fourth down through the air.

Rodgers was a steady veteran presence. He minimized negative plays. He attempted to stretch the field. But only one of his seven throws that covered at least 20 yards was completed. Bigger challenges than the Falcons await.

3. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

2025 EPA/game: 3.9
Week 1 EPA: -15.8
Difference: 19.7 points worse
2026 CPOE: 3.6 percent
Week 1 CPOE: -2.4 percent
Difference: 6.0 points worse

The Jones roller coaster continues, but it's difficult to extrapolate whether he can reclaim his early 2025 glory from his first game back from last year's torn Achilles. He was a dynamic runner, especially near the goal line, where his 45 carries resulted in five touchdowns — all of which came in the first 10 games of the season before a broken leg slowed his momentum.

Despite averaging only 4.0 yards per touch in that span, he was averaging four runs per game. His 18.1 EPA on those carries was the second-highest of his NFL career.

In his Week 1 debut, he had a single carry for four yards. It was a third quarter scramble in a 31-13 game. The Colts trailed, in part, because of a short-field touchdown drive set up by a first quarter throw that didn't have the space to clear Roquan Smith.

ROQUAN SMITH INTERCEPTION!!!!

Tune in on @NFLonCBS and @ParamountPlus! pic.twitter.com/S81LbyNErB
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 13, 2026

His lack of mobility wasn't just apparent through a lack of designed runs. He was blitzed nine times in Week 1, per NFL Pro. He completed two of seven pass attempts for 17 yards. He was sacked twice for a loss of 17 yards. Having done a little bit of work in statistics, I can say with some confidence that every time the Baltimore Ravens blitzed the Colts, the average result was zero yards of progress.

That's brutal, and it helps underscore how important his mobility is to his game. Pure pocket passer Daniel Jones is an easy target for an aggressive defense. A dynamic, healthy Jones can get away, make a read to single coverage and flip a deep ball to Alec Pierce. We'll see how long it takes the latter Jones to show up this year — if he does at all.

2. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

2025 EPA/game: 7.1
Week 1 EPA: -13.1
Difference: 20.2 points worse
2026 CPOE: 2.0 percent
Week 1 CPOE: 2.5 percent
Difference: 0.5 points better

All it took to deflate the Rams' hype balloon was a 16-hour plane ride. Stafford looked like a 38-year-old dad who'd been on a transcontinental flight 24 hours earlier across Los Angeles' Australia opener against the San Francisco 49ers. He completed only 15 of 25 passes, all but four of which came within five yards of the line of scrimmage (one of those four was about 6.5 yards downfield).

While he escaped the day without a sack, San Francisco was able to generate pressure with and without blitzing, greatly diminishing the deep and intermediate range throws that made him last year's MVP. But even when he looked downfield with a clean pocket, he looked like a player still shaking away the off-season rust.

We'll take thaaatt 😤

📺 Netflix pic.twitter.com/nNOOUhrnyi
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 11, 2026

The issue wasn't just his low-impact passing. He managed to generate -4.4 EPA on the ground, which is stunning considering he only ran the ball once in a non-kneeldown situation. Unfortunately for the Rams, it was a go-nowhere quarterback sneak that snuffed out a goal line scoring opportunity on fourth down.

TURNOVER ON DOWNS‼️

📺 Netflix pic.twitter.com/c6o4dlBHvs
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 11, 2026

It's too soon to issue a verdict on Stafford, just like any of these quarterbacks. But his high perch from which to fall gave him an early lead in the gross quarterback rankings. The weirdness of a Thursday night game in Australia lends him a little more grace, but he was only saved from the ignominy of the top spot by a different primetime collapse.

1. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Sep 14, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis (56) hits Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

2025 EPA/game: 2.0
Week 1 EPA: -18.9
Difference: 20.9 points worse
2026 CPOE: -2.0 percent
Week 1 CPOE: -9.1 percent
Difference: 7.1 points worse

A slow start isn't new for Nix. In 2025, his Week 1 ended with just 176 yards on 40 pass attempts and a pair of interceptions against what would be a three-win Tennessee Titans team. He rebounded from that to take the Broncos to the brink of the Super Bowl, which is encouraging. But that's about the end of the silver linings for Nix.

Bo Nix with the kind of play that suggests he might not have beaten the Patriots in the AFC title game. fortunately for him, L'Jarius Sneed was out of bounds when he touched the ball, negating a turnover
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-15T02:17:00.114Z

Nix turned 35 dropbacks into 117 total yards. He completed only four passes that traveled more than six yards downfield. A quarter of those were to Kansas City Chiefs. Despite trailing much of the game and in clear pass-first mode, he seemed baffled by the constant pressure defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo brought.

George Karlaftis is straight-up rude
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-15T03:05:01.561Z

It wasn't supposed to be this way. Week 1 could have been Nix's triumphant return after a broken ankle kept him from an AFC Championship Game slopfest in Denver. The Broncos were proactive in boosting his targets as well; despite a deep roster of young prospects with receiving chops, the team sent a first round pick to the Miami Dolphins to make Jaylen Waddle WR1a or WR1b to Courtland Sutton.

Waddle's debut line? 27 routes, three targets, one catch and two yards. Nix and brand new offensive coordinator Davis Webb's attack was so inefficient it made the 2025 Miami Dolphins offense look like the Greatest Show on Turf in comparison.