The Kenneth Walker III mutual respect game is upon us. It's not a revenge game, because I doubt he has negative feelings about his departure from the Seattle Seahawks after winning a Super Bowl.
The dynamic running back broke free of his platoon in Washington state after being deemed expendable despite the Seahawks' $700 million in contract extensions to keep its core intact. That made him the balm in a terribly burned Kansas City Chiefs backfield, where he's put up an Offensive Player of the Year pace across the team's 5-0 start. Now he faces his former team in his former home in primetime.
That game has us torn in Week 7. It's not the only one.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s
top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 7 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: New York Jets (-4.5) over the Miami Dolphins
Cool, I've murdered you once again. While I appreciate some Indianapolis Colts schadenfreude, I'm truly not enjoying this year's survivor slate. Ah well, time to back another flawed team with a quarterback working through yet another redemption arc. The Dolphins are coming off a bye and scored 24 points their last time out, but that was also the only week this season in which they've topped 13.
New York's defense is competent. The Jets offense just got a boost with Omar Cooper Jr. returning to the lineup. Geno Smith faces the league's second-worst passing defense. If he can't thrive here, it's time to fade back into "high value backup" status.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 3-3
Hardest favorite to back: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) over the Cincinnati Bengals
Oh, friends, do I ever hate this pick. We're writing this on Wednesday and don't know what Lamar Jackson has planned for the week. If he's playing? I'm in. If not? This flips to Joe Shiesty and company. But, for now, let's assume we get an 80 percent Jackson behind center.
Why I like this pick:
The AFC North isn't defined by logic and answers only to the gods of chaos and violence. Baltimore has fielded the slightly better defense, and an emerging Ja'Kobi Lane brings an important fallback option. The Ravens find an extra gear against Cincinnati, beating the Bengals five of their last six tries and scoring at least 24 points in each of those wins.
Why I don't like this pick:
Even if Jackson plays, he'll have to face a revitalized and suddenly viable Bengals pass rush that has a strategy beyond "throw Trey Hendrickson at them, hope it works." The Bengals have the manpower to blitz effectively and the defensive backs to stand up in single coverage. Baltimore's top-heavy receiving corps will be put to the test, and it may take a Lane or a Devontez Walker to lift this team up in a high-scoring affair.
Those Ravens wins came under Jim Harbaugh. Jesse Minter might be able to take up his mantle, but those are big shoes to fill seven weeks into his rookie season. Even worse, Cincinnati is coming off a bye.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 5-1
Upset pick of the week: Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) over the Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III's respectful revenge game! The reigning Super Bowl MVP has been masterful at unclogging a previously stagnant Chiefs offense. Now he faces a defense he knows well. Will he leave Lumen Field with yet another win?
Why I like this pick:
The Chiefs are rolling right now. The Seahawks are not. The Super Bowl mainstay has rebounded from its uncharacteristic 2025 falloff by letting Walker cook. Kansas City has a top 10 passing offense in terms of expected points added (EPA) but is No. 1 by a wide margin when it comes to the run game. The Seahawks' run defense ranks third, which means this game is probably gonna be a pleasant reminder why we love this dumb sport so much.
But Kansas City can counter with Patrick Mahomes. The Seahawks have Sam Darnold, who appears adrift without former coordinator Klint Kubiak, now head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. Darnold's -0.050 EPA per dropback ranks 28th in the league. He's struggled to connect with anyone not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the Chiefs have fielded a top four passing offense this season.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Seahawks are at home and facing a breaking point when it comes to the NFC West race. Dropping under .500 could give the San Francisco 49ers a four-game lead in the division, and while there are still 10 games to be played for both teams, that's a deep hole to dig out of. Seattle's fans understand that, and they're going to be LOUD as evening descends on the Emerald City.
The Chiefs have gotten better returns than expected from their receivers, but asking Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals to shine against the Seattle secondary is a monumental ask. Even in a 3-3 start the Seahawks defense ranks second only to the Minnesota Vikings in overall efficiency through six weeks.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-5
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 7: Torn on Chiefs-Seahawks, doubting the Lions
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