The Minnesota Vikings got a major quarterback upgrade by freeing Kirk Cousins from the Las Vegas Raiders' latest rebuild. The Green Bay Packers got a major quarterback upgrade by letting Jordan Love wing passes downfield with impunity. Now the two clash -- and they're backed by the two hottest defenses in the NFL.
Cousins' re-introduction to purple and gold will bring him back to the unfriendly confines of Lambeau Field, one win from a season sweep that could have massive postseason implications in the NFC North. It could be a shootout. It could be a rock fight. And that variance has our panel torn when it comes to picking a winner in Wisconsin.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s
top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, coming off a perfect Week 9, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 10 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Baltimore Ravens (-4) over the Los Angeles Chargers
You're not going to have many chances to feel confident about the Ravens. A showdown with the Chargers, however, provides a speck of light at the end of their tunnel. Jacoby Brissett just has to be competent to win a shootout against a Los Angeles offense armed solely with NES zappers.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 5-4
Hardest favorite to back: Detroit Lions (-3) over the New England Patriots
The Patriots got pantsed at Rob Gronkowski's (franchise) Hall of Fame ceremony by an NFC North team last week. Now they head to Munich, where they'll be fighting jet lag and the injuries that continue to destroy an offense doomed to never get to full strength. But the Lions just struggled with the Miami Dolphins and their 32nd-ranked defense so...
Why I like this pick:
Even on a day where Jahmyr Gibbs was bottled up and Jared Goff had one of his worst performances of the year, the Lions still pulled out a 10-point win. Now Gibbs gets to face a New England defense that just made the Packers' run game look competent.
The Patriots' run game may hinge on Corey Kiner behind an offensive line starting backup guards. The passing game will be without Romeo Doubs and potentially A.J. Brown. Drake Maye has been able to elevate his lesser-known receivers in the past, but that only really worked for Demario Douglas last week. And Christian Gonzalez got torched repeatedly on deep balls vs. Green Bay. Now he has to run with Jameson Williams.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Lions secondary is very bad, and while Andre Cisco is a useful and inexpensive addition, he alone won't fix the a unit that's allowed a bottom-10 passer rating in coverage. Drake Maye needs a bounce-back game and he's bounced back already this season. Kiner has been surprisingly efficient, averaging0.7 rush yards over expected (RYOE)per carry in limited usage and could thrive under a larger spotlight.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 6-3
Upset pick of the week: Carolina Panthers (+2.5) over the Atlanta Falcons
Well, I've learned my lesson about backing the Falcons the same way every Falcons fan has since 1966; by being repeatedly battered by failure. Time to pick another inscrutable NFC South team!
Why I like this pick:
Bryce Young needs a get-right game. He's facing the league's 26th-ranked defense. Tyler Shough remains forever perched at the threshold of trustworthiness, barred from entering like an uninvited vampire. As long as Carolina can avoid turnovers -- it had eight in a three-game losing streak -- it should be OK. New Orleans ranks only 20th in turnovers created.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Panthers have a bottom five defense. New Orleans just boosted its receiving corps with the debut of top 10 draft pick Jordyn Tyson. Bryce Young's -0.081 expected points added (EPA) per dropback over the last three weeks ranks 27th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, relinquishing the goodwill generated by his explosive start to 2026. It's the NFC South, where logic means nothing and reasonable analysis somehow leaves you worse off than random guesswork.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-8 (ye Gods)
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 10: A chalky week, except for Vikings-Packers?
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