The 2027 Academy Awards are still a little under six months away, so we've got a long, long way to go until we start handing out the little gold men.
However, most of the big fall festivals are behind us, with the New York Film Festival ongoing as you read this.
What's coming down the road for Best Picture from what we know and what we speculate on the films we haven't seen yet? Well, we've ranked the 10 films we think are in the conversation for Best Picture nominees right now.
While, yes, this is a flawed process and destined to look bad in mid-September for mid-January results, it's still fun to put on the guessing hat and predict what the Oscar race may look like right now.
If you want to get really nerdy with us, let's do some silly prognostications
for what the Best Picture race may look like right now.
1. The Odyssey
Could Christopher Nolan defy Oscar history and become the first filmmaker to win back-to-back Best Picture Oscars on consecutive projects? With the way his Greek epic dominated at the box office, won over critics and audiences and cemented itself as one of the de-facto movies of 2026, don't count the Oppenheimer director out. The Odyssey is a cultural behemoth that checks all the Academy boxes, from showy performances to stellar crafts. It's the frontrunner right now. However, a long season can shift people's perspectives and make some films stand out over others when you least expect it. Universal will need to keep the pedal to the metal with its campaign.
2. La Bola Negra
Passion can go a long way at the Oscars. The more people see La Bola Negra, the more they love it. The Cannes breakout won Toronto's audience award this past weekend and seems to be gaining even more momentum as it reaches new audiences. Filmmakers Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi (Los Javis) bring an ambitious, widely-loved international contender to the Oscar table with the Netflix awards machine behind it. It's going to take a huge push from any film to dethrone The Odyssey atop our rankings, but La Bola Negra should linger throughout the season.
3. Wild Horse Nine
Martin McDonagh's last two films (Three Billboards, Banshees of Inisherin) registered real support from the Academy, the former winning multiple acting Oscars for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell. Could Wild Horse Nine repeat that film's success? Early speculation out of the fall festivals pegs John Malkovich as a possible Best Actor frontrunner, while Rockwell could angle for his second Academy Award in Best Supporting Actor. The Chile-set CIA satire feels like one of the few locks we have right now to get a Best Picture nomination. The buzz is high.
4. Project Hail Mary
We're pretty confident that Phil Lord and Chris Miller's blockbuster space dramedy will still loom large come Oscar time. Even though it's going to be nearly a year between this film's release and the next Oscars broadcast, Sinners proved last year that a beloved hit can stand the test of the overlong schedule. Amazon/MGM will have this and I Play Rocky as its big awards contenders this fall, which will make for two films where "Rocky" is a character. Weird.
5. Digger
Look, despite the wildly polarized reactions from the first screenings, we're still convinced Digger is going to factor in heavily during this awards season. Alejandro González Iñárritu literally won Best Director back-to-back for Birdman and The Revenant in 2014 and 2015. Digger is his first English-language film since those two Oscar heavyweights. This politically-charged movie is about climate change and stars Tom Cruise. Just look at Don't Look Up for a recent, star-studded apocalyptic satire directed by an Oscar winner with mixed critical response that still registered strongly with the Academy. Digger might be even more Academy-friendly than that. Don't ignore Iñárritu's (and Cruise's) pull with this voting body and this film's odds. Even a tepid box office response may not matter all that much. If the Academy falls for it, it'll register in plenty of categories. We're eager to finally see it.
6. Club Kid
Jordan Firstman's Cannes hit, being compared to Adam Sandler's Big Daddy in plot and the best rave of all time in vibes, feels like it's going to be a stronger Oscar contender than previously assumed after its France debut. A24 backing this magnetic a crowdpleaser (complete with some of the year's best reviews) hints at a real snowball effect. If you ask us, this sounds like A24's strongest Oscar player. If the love keeps building with the Academy screenings, don't be shocked if A24 moves all its chips in on Club Kid. Never discount a feel-good movie at the Oscars. The preferential balloting system in particular may help this one thrive on Oscar nomination morning.
7. Dune: Part Three
Can Denis Villeneuve's Dune trilogy-capper pull off a Return of the King-style Oscar sweep? While we still think Villeneuve's big Dune finale can earn a Best Picture nomination and do well in the crafts, Dune: Part Two's tepid Oscar response makes us a little leery to put it higher. Dune is much darker than The Lord of the Rings and a bit less accessible. The Return of the King was a triumphant ending that also capped a years-long momentum at the Oscars. The industry was ready to crown Peter Jackson king after pulling off this three-year journey. The Dune films don't have the feel-good narrative that Jackson and company had back in the early 2000s. The Dune films, while still quite popular, haven't broken through fully to the zeitgeist so far like the Lord of the Rings did. If you ask us, the Dune films are as good as the Lord of the Rings trilogy, but we're less certain it'll have a similar moment with the Academy for its third installment. Maybe this one is just so good it can't be denied, but it may have a built-in ceiling.
8. I Play Rocky
If I Play Rocky strikes with the right force within the Academy, the Rocky making-of movie from Green Book director Peter Farrelly can absolutely make it into the Best Picture field. In an old-school Oscars race, a crowdpleaser about Hollywood could go the distance and win the whole kit-and-kaboodle. In this era? It's probably just limited to making the field of 10. However, we think the older Academy will fall headfirst for this one. Anthony Ippolito's portrayal of Sylvester Stallone could land him in Best Actor if all falls this one's way. Even in this new Academy, actors still go gaga for their contemporaries playing famous people well. We're very curious to see how this one does this fall, particularly after it was the runner-up for the Toronto audience award behind La Bola Negra.
9. Fjord
The 2026 Palme d'Or winner has apparently been a tough sell stateside after a more supportive reception in Europe. However, a more international Academy can absolutely rally around a film that isn't necessarily hitting with American audiences. Cristian Mungiu is a widely-respected filmmaker who has been biding his time for a big Oscar moment. Even though Fjord hasn't traveled as well as planned with its thorny morality questions, it's not out of the conversation. NEON is one of the best campaigners in the business; this is still its biggest contender right now.
10. Artificial
While Luca Guadagnino's OpenAI drama with Andrew Garfield playing Sam Altman doesn't premiere for another week now, if this hits, expect it to hit. The anti-AI sentiments only grow stronger with each passing day; the political potency of AI at an all-time high. A timely drama studying one of AI's biggest luminaries from a past Oscar nominee that gives you real Social Network vibes? Artificial could be Guadagnino's biggest Oscar contender in nearly a decade. Plus, Amazon/MGM dumping it over possible political pressure will only help NEON make a stronger case for why Academy members should support it. Votes are statements; don't discount Artificial's attraction to be one.
12 other contenders to consider: The Invite, Obsession, The Debut, Tender Loving Care, Behemoth!, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, Possible Love, Michael, Elsinore, You Can See Everything, Paper Tiger
The Invite is a tough one to leave out, but we do wonder if a surging Club Kid could make A24 prioritize it over Olivia Wilde's excellent chamber piece. It's our 11th nomination and could easily end up in this top-10 group if it keeps itself in the conversation throughout a long awards season. We're not as sure about Curry Barker's breakout Obsession getting in Best Picture; it feels like a Weapons scenario where it gets a lone acting nomination... and maybe win (Best Actress for Inde Navarrette). The Debut should position Julianne Moore for frontrunner status in Best Actress, but Jesse Eisenberg's latest feature sound a little out-of-the-box (exciting for the quality of the movie, maybe not quite as potent for its Oscar chances). Tender Loving Care is reportedly Mike Leigh's swan song; could the Academy honor him after decades of strong work?
Behemoth! is a Tony Gilroy movie that takes place within the world of movies; it could play. The Social Reckoning is a true wild card; the trailers haven't been great, but if this breaks right with the Academy, it could be a force. Aaron Sorkin striking lightning in a bottle twice with this script will probably tilt this one where it goes. Can Ryusuke Hamaguchi return to Oscar prominence with All of a Sudden after 2021's Oscar darling Drive My Car? We ponder. Can Lee Chang-dong finally get into Best Picture with Possible Love, which is backed by Netflix? Is Michael the next Bohemian Rhapsody? Is Elsinore more than an Andrew Scott Best Actor vehicle? Can Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim's Elizabeth Holmes quasi-documentary break tradition of non-fiction work making it in Best Picture after rave reviews? Can a James Gray movie in Paper Tiger finally get in Best Picture with NEON behind it?
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 2027 Oscar Best Picture predictions for September 2026
