The AFC West is in the midst of a strange year. The Kansas City Chiefs' resurgence resulted in a 5-0 start before a no-show in Seattle last week. Sure, that makes sense.
But the Denver Broncos have regressed on both sides of the ball as Bo Nix throws his future into doubt (that throw went two yards downfield). The Los Angeles Chargers have disintegrated, not even doing their fans the service of raising their hopes before inevitably dashing them. The Las Vegas Raiders started the season 3-0. Please do not ask what came next.
Thus, we've got questions about Sunday afternoon's showdown between the Chiefs and Broncos. About half of us think the Seahawks laid a blueprint for containing Kenneth Walker III and forcing the action to Patrick Mahomes' wideouts.
The rest have concerns about the Denver defense, which pale in comparison to concerns about Nix. So who's going to win?
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 8 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Cincinnati Bengals (-10) over the Tennessee Titans
This is supposed to be the easiest game to pick each week. And yet, I am less accurate than a coin flip. I understand if that immediately makes you stop reading these breakouts. So here, let's roll with what should be a get-right gimme instead of meticulously walking a knife's edge and picking bad teams who manage to lose to worse opponents.
The logic? I have watched the Tennessee Titans play football in 2026. It looks quite a bit like the Tennessee Titans of 2024 and 2025. What head coach Robert Saleh is doing to franchise ownership may technically be theft.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 3-4
Hardest favorite to back: Seattle Seahawks (-3) over the Chicago Bears
Flipping my pick from the Ravens once Lamar Jackson was ruled out paid off last week, and we'll talk about that a little more below.. I had some other choices I'm a bit iffier on this week -- Raiders-Jets promises a groundbreaking expedition into the world of awful football -- but I really want to talk about the beautiful conjoined storms that is a Ben Johnson offense taking on the Seahawks defense.
Why I like this pick:
The Bears offense is a force, but the Seahawks defense is second only to the Minnesota Vikings this fall. The Bears played them and scored three points while losing to Carson Wentz.
Seattle should have the opportunity to stifle Caleb Williams and force havoc, and it gets the raucous home environment of a primetime game at Quest Field. Opponents have averaged only 3.5 yards per carry against the Hawks this fall, which suggests the play-action passes that have been such a big part of Williams' offense the last two games won't have the same efficacy.
The Seahawks have the league's third-highest pressure rate and the second-lowest blitz rate. They can crumple the pocket like Minnesota without sacrificing members of one of the league's best secondaries. Chicago counters with an above-average, but still not great, defense that will provide chances for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a hopefully healthy Zach Charbonnet to thrive.
Why I don't like this pick:
Week 7 could have been a peak that gives way to a letdown game after riding high in Kenneth Walker III's return to Washington. The Bears just handled the other half of Super Bowl 60 by fending off the Patriots in primetime and continue to improve as the season wears on.
Seattle has fielded an offense thatbarely cracks the top 25 in terms of expected points added per snap. That's significantly worse than the New York Jets, who Chicago held to seven first downs and 157 total yards in Week 4. Sam Darnold has had flashes of his past as a medium between spirit worlds. A glitch in Week 8 could be all the Bears need.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 6-1
Upset pick of the week: Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Look, I was originally all chalk this week, furthering my credibility as a truly boring and ineffective picker. I'd like to back the Ravens over Buffalo, but Lamar Jackson's lingering ankle issue and Josh Allen coming off a bye suggests that's not going to happen. The Raiders at Jets line is volatile, so New York may qualify here by default. Instead, let's dive into the NFL's most inscrutable division.
Why I like this pick:
The Falcons beat an injury depleted 49ers team last week, but also did so despite minimal returns in the run game. That's big news, because Tampa Bay has the personnel to limit Bijan Robinson.
Knowing Michael Penix Jr. can throw his way to key road wins adds an extra layer of competence to this team that it didn't have back in September. Penix struggles when opponents bring pressure without blitzing. The Bucs have the league's 25th-highest pressure rate and the fifth-highest blitz rate, which suggests he'll have time to make big-armed throws to the sideline and downfield.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Buccaneers defense is really good, even despite a lack of consistent pressure. Baker Mayfield's return in Week 7 didn't shift things -- he threw the ball only 11 times and Tampa still put up 43 points -- but his presence allows for a viable veteran downfield attack in case his offense doesn't run for more than 250 yards this week. Atlanta probably isn't going to force four turnovers again like it did in Week 7; the Falcons only generated five turnovers in their 2-4 start.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-6 (yeesh)
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 8: Can you trust the Chiefs OR the Broncos?
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