NFL Gross Quarterback Ranks: What do we think about Michael Penix Jr.?

How much stock can you put in a quarterback stuck in a constant downpour? That's the question NFL fans are asking after Michael Penix Jr. continued his roller coaster career with a gruesome performance in swampy Tampa Bay.

Penix had more interceptions Sunday than the Buccaneers had pass attempts, clearing the way for him to surge to the top of this week's Gross Quarterback Rankings. But at least he can blame the weather. Jacoby Brissett, on the other hand, was playing the league's worst defense in a dome.

There's no perfect metric for a quarterback's impact, but expected points added (EPA) helps measure their ability to swing the outcome of a game through the air, on the ground and through avoiding negative plays. Last year, EPA told us Drake

Maye and Matthew Stafford were a cut above the rest of the league's quarterbacks in the regular season, netting 151.3 and 120.3 EPA, respectfully. No one else in the league topped triple digits. Unsurprisingly, those two led playoff teams and finished second and first, respectively, in MVP voting.

We can use EPA to help dissect which quarterbacks underwhelmed the hardest in their debut. By comparing their Week 8 EPA across their early 2026 season averages, we get a better idea of whose fans should be most annoyed. And so, we end up with a "worst QBs" list that doesn't include Cam Ward or even Bo Nix, simply because their starts to the season have been so disappointing we've been moderately conditioned not to expect more this fall. You have to be at least decent in 2026 — or otherworldly awful on a given week — to wind up in the gross QB rankings.

We'll also look at completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which gives you a good idea of which quarterbacks are making tough throws (and, in some cases, being bailed out by exceptional catches). All data come from NFL Pro.

We'll also keep a running tally of the times each quarterback lands here. We'll score that placement track meet style — 10 points for first place, then eight, six, four, two and one — in order to figure out who was truly 2026's grossest passer.

Honorable mention: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

• 2026 EPA/game: -9.3
• Week 8 EPA: -19.7
• Difference: 10.4 points worse
• 2026 CPOE: -3.5 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: 2.2 percent
• Difference: 5.7 points better

The Chargers continue to find ways to make things worse. Herbert emerged from the bye week and played roughly as badly as he had in Week 6. He's thrown zero touchdowns but three interceptions in his last two games. His average pass distance dipped to a season-low five yards downfield against the Los Angeles Rams, allowing offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel to further his groundbreaking research into destroying the Chargers.

5. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

• 2026 EPA/game: 1.6
• Week 8 EPA: -10.2
• Difference: 11.8 points worse
• 2026 CPOE: 0.5 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: -3.1 percent
• Difference: 3.6 points worse

The big-armed Bryce we saw early in the season has faded back to untrustworthy thanks in large part to an offensive line that's struggled to keep his pockets clean. He was pressured on roughly half his dropbacks against the Buccaneers and Packers the last two weeks despite only being blitzed 27 percent of the time. The play-action snaps that helped generate space early in the season -- his 32.6 percent play-action rate is fourth-highest in the league -- have lost their efficacy despite a useful run game.

And in obvious passing downs, well...

SWARMED

📺: Prime Video pic.twitter.com/CT4vF4IaUk

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 30, 2026

He threw a single deep ball in Green Bay Thursday night. His 4.7 air yards per throw were his lowest of the season by a significant margin. His lone interception was a case of poor timing and unblocked blitzers screaming toward him.

HOP!

📺: Prime Video pic.twitter.com/UKq78KbUGa

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 30, 2026

This is concerning! Young is nearing his breaking point with the Panthers alongside head coach Dave Canales. He has yet to guide Carolina to a winning record. His hot start to the season provided hope for a lucrative contract extension and possible repeat as NFC South champion.

Both remain possible, but his light is dimming behind an offensive line that's blunted his downfield passing and forced him into a diet of short, rushed passes and the occasional downfield prayer. Defenses have caught up to Young. In order to prove he and Canales can be legitimate cornerstones, they'll need to adjust on the fly.

4. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

• 2026 EPA/game: -7.8
• Week 8 EPA: -20.5
• Difference: 12.7 points worse
• 2026 CPOE: -2.1 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: -0.3 percent
• Difference: 1.8 points better

Jones has been truly lousy this season, so for him to make this list he has to have a notably terrible day. Behold!

TRICK OR TREAT 🎃@rayuanlanelll | #INDvsJAX on CBS pic.twitter.com/2zeQtKd5wx

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 1, 2026

That accounted for -11 of Jones' -20.5 EPA Sunday, even if it wasn't entirely his fault. That pass bounced off Tyler Warren's hands. Rain made getting the ball to his already depleted receiving corps more difficult. But Jones has regressed to the risk-averse, yet-still-turnover-prone version the New York Giants once regretted extending. His average pass has traveled fewer than six yards downfield in half his starts this season, even as he's been forced to play from behind for a 2-6 team.

That's probably a smart thing. Per SIS, Jones has only completed four of his 23 deep attempts in 2026. That's as many deep completions as Jalon Daniels, who has effectively only played three full games and is, notably, an undrafted rookie.

Help is not on the way. There's no reason to speed Alec Pierce back from injury. Josh Downs has been misused and mostly ignored as his average target distance has risen. He's likely to be traded before the deadline next Tuesday. Jonathan Taylor, the only reliable threat in the offense, has been roughly average from an efficiency standpoint and could also be on the move.

The good news is stacking terrible performances will drop his baseline EPA and make it tougher to qualify for these rankings. The bad news is, that's not really good news.

3. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

• 2026 EPA/game: -2.8
• Week 8 EPA: -16.4
• Difference: 13.6 points worse
• 2026 CPOE: 5.4 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: -6.1 percent
• Difference: 11.5 points worse

Here's how you get demoted from starter to third string. There was a more than 25 point swing in EPA between Brissett and Gardner Minshew II even though Minshew only played the final 20-ish minutes of the game. While this created the opportunity for an incredible Dallas Cowboys meltdown, it also cast doubt on Brissett's reputation as a viable short-term starter for rebuilding teams.

This, for example, is the kind of play you'd expect from a rookie Shedeur Sanders, not someone who has been in the league more than a decade.

.@VonMiller with a 16-yd SACK 🔥

📺: #AZvsDAL on FOX
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/XM2vIx7C1d pic.twitter.com/MB5jsimQOf

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 1, 2026

Brissett was baffled by the Cowboys' pressure which, fair enough. Dallas only blitzed on 17 percent of his dropbacks but generated pressure 55 percent of the time, particularly on third down. He completed four of nine passes on third down, converting only three of those opportunities and throwing an interception in the process. His seven drives gained just 145 yards, scoring three points.

Brissett has reached the point of his career where he should be regarded as the quarterback teams thought they were getting in late-stage Jameis Winston. He's willing to air the ball out, but his once-steady risk mitigation is failing him -- his 2.3 percent interception rate is the highest of his career so far.

He won't get the chance to fix that in 2026, barring injury. Minshew tops the depth chart, while rookie third round pick Carson Beck will likely get the opportunity to stake his claim on the Cardinals' future before the season is up.

2. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

• 2026 EPA/game: 9.8
• Week 8 EPA: -5.2
• Difference: 15 points worse
• 2026 CPOE: 1.7 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: -1.9 percent
• Difference: 3.6 points worse

We're at the point in the rankings where context matters. Goff had to face the shaken hornet's nest dropped into the back of his locked limousine when he faced the eternal blitzes of the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota sent extra defenders toward the pocket nearly 90 percent of the time in Week 8.

Dan Campbell countered with the highest concentration of play-action he'd called all season and the embattled Lions offensive line held up better than expected. But Goff was still limited largely to a diet of short passes. He only threw five attempts that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, and while he completed two of those for 60 yards (minus 15 for a dumb Jameson Williams taunting penalty), it's also how he threw his lone interception.

Jared Goff throws his first interception of the season and the Vikings have the football

📺: FOX/FOX One pic.twitter.com/C1a5RHBXoX

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 1, 2026

That was his first interception of the season. The fact it didn't happen until a Week 8 showdown with the league's most vicious defense says a lot. He was also sacked four times on only 29 dropbacks, twice on drive-killing third downs.

Still, he adjusted, avoided losses in the second half and led the Lions to a comeback win. He'll be fine. And if he's stuck throwing short passes again, well, there are worse places to be than a lineup with Amon-Ra St. Brown in it.

1. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

• 2026 EPA/game: 2.9
• Week 8 EPA: -24.9
• Difference: 27.8 (!!!) points worse
• 2026 CPOE: 0.1 percent
• Week 8 CPOE: -22.6 percent
• Difference: 22.7 points worse

Full caveat: Penix was trying to throw his team back into this game in a rainstorm. Still, it's concerning that Baker Mayfield threw three passes, completed none and still had a quarterback rating more than three times higher than the Falcons' 12.0 in Week 8.

It's raining picks ‼️ Hallelujah 🙌

📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX pic.twitter.com/qcKaGBEVKp

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 1, 2026

Tampa Bay did what most teams have this season; blitzed consistently in hopes of forcing an increasingly statuesque passer to rush throws in the pocket. Penix is averaging -0.10 EPA per dropback when faced with extra defenders up front versus -0.02 against a four-man rush or less. He's responsible for a 100.9 rating and 0.13 EPA per snap from a clean pocket and 60.9 and -0.51 under pressure. Factor that with incredibly sloppy conditions and you've got the makings of a perfect storm (of crappy play).

WIDE OPEN JACOB PARRISH ‼️

📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX pic.twitter.com/LcZ3BpvEul

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 1, 2026

Penix attempted 10 passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He completed five -- two to his teammates and three to Tampa Bay defenders. This left us with the indelible stat that the Falcons completed more passes to the Buccaneers than Baker Mayfield did. Hell, Penix threw more interceptions (four) than Mayfield had pass attempts (three).

We'll see if this lasts outside monsoon conditions.

Still too-early FTW Gross QB rankings after Week 8

t-1. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 20

t-1. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 20

3. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 19 points

4. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 18

5. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 15

6. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 14

7. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 13

t-8. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 12

t-8. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12

t-8. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: 12

t-11. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 10

t-11. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins: 10

t-11. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 10

14. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 9

t-15. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 8

t-15. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 8

17. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 7

t-18. Geno Smith, New York Jets: 6

t-18. Kirk Cousins, Las Vegas Raiders: 6

t-20. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 4

t-20. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 4

t-20. Jameis Winston, New York Giants: 4

23. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 3

24. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2

t-25. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 1

t-25. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 1

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL Gross Quarterback Ranks: What do we think about Michael Penix Jr.?