Well, well, well. The first week of the NFL season is finally upon us. If the Vegas total of 44.5 points for the season opener between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks is any indication, there's an opportunity to place some bets while no one's quite sure about anything.
Thus, we're back with another season of Scumbag Bets here at FTW. Why does it have such an unfortunate name? Because I've teamed up with our resident fantasy expert and self proclaimed Rhode Island Scumbag Mike "Yaj" Boyajian to pool our best recommendations (and compete with a couple bottles of fine brown party liquors on the line). Last year, we went a combined 87-75-1, finishing the season with a profit of 15.5 units. In 2024? 79-62-1, netting 20.5 units on the year.
I'm hopefully we can get back to these lucrative heights. It all starts with some exploitable lines in Week 1 and some bold predictions that will make us look stupid. Scumbag bets are below, with Yaj's comments in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag bets follow.
Alright, we are back for year three of this current iteration of best bets. Christian and I have been relatively close in our competition the past two seasons. Let’s see if we can finally get over the hump and beat him outright. Week 1 is always tricky, but let’s try to find some value here and come out on top this week.
Scumbag Lock of the Week I: Houston Texans (+1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (one unit)
Houston’s defense was unreal last year. There’s no reason to think they won’t be again. Yes, I know I’m betting against Josh Allen and his new shiny toy (DJ Moore), but the MVP has historically struggled against the Texans.
I’m betting on the offenses to come out of the gate slow due to lack of preseason play. I’ll take a chance on Houston’s defense to take care of business and pull off a close one here.
Scumbag Lock of the Week II: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans UNDER 38.5 points (one unit)
Let’s not overthink things. We have two teams with QBs that struggled in 2025 and haven’t really shaken those sentiments for 2026. Both teams also boast defensive minded head coaches in Aaron Glenn and Robert Saleh.
Tennessee especially struggled with getting their offense on the same page throughout the preseason. This has the makings of a low scoring affair. I’ll make an educated guess here and say there won’t be too many fireworks in this Nashville showdown.
Scumbag Lock of the Week III: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 46.5 points (one unit)
Yes, I’m once again taking another under (borrrring), but I’m seeing another close game here and am gong to err on the side of caution in a week of uncertainties. Green Bay’s offensive personnel looks a lot different than it did last year. Minnesota replaced their quarterback.
Both offenses might take a while to get going, and with both teams boasting good defenses (especially Minnesota), this could very well be a low scoring affair. I’ll take my chances with some early season offensive struggles driving the score down in this one.
Scumbag Lock of the Week IV: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (one unit)
Originally I was going to stay away from this one, but with the news that Tua is VERY questionable after suffering an oblique injury this week, I’m okay with taking the Steelers at home here. I still worry that Bijan Robinson’s talent is enough to keep this one close, but ultimately think the Steelers pull this one off at home. I have faith in Pittsburgh’s defense handling a hobbled Tua, or the alternative…(checks notes) Cooper Rush.
My non-scumbag bets: Houston Texans -2.5 over the Buffalo Bills (alternate line, one unit to win 1.25), Bills-Texans UNDER 45, Tennessee Titans -1.5 over the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings UNDER 46.5 (one unit each)
Let's start the season with a five-pick slate. I believe in the Texans defense, because I have eyes. I am also skeptical of the Bills offense under Joe Brady, for similar reasons. I expect a lower scoring affair and a Houston home win to make a statement after finishing strong in 2025.
The Titans raised their floor by bringing in competent veterans and Robert Saleh, who may not work wonders for Cam Ward but should improve Tennessee's defense. Aaron Glenn's first season as head coach was a disaster even before the Jets began selling off players, and I don't think he's got the personnel to make a rapid turnaround.
The Bengals have avoided their typical September lull recently, at least when Joe Burrow is healthy. Zac Taylor has given his starters some preseason run and a revamped defense should give them a home win. The Packers, on the other hand, look depleted and have a lot of offensive question marks against a perpetually furious Vikings defense. I'm not sold on Kyler Murray just yet, and while I think this will be a close game I also believe it will be an ugly one.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL best bets, Week 1: Grimy games, unders and... Cooper Rush?
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