For 59 minutes, C.J. Stroud went toe-to-toe with an NFL MVP and found the scales between them just about even. The fourth-year quarterback kept his Houston Texans in position to win repeatedly against Allen's Buffalo Bills. He battled back from 3-0, 10-7, 24-14 and 30-28 deficits before getting the ball back with 91 seconds to play in a 36-31 game.
A game-winning drive would be a statement to the rest of the AFC. Stroud once looked like a surefire franchise quarterback, winning rookie of the year honors in 2023. The intervening years were a frustrating reminder that growth is neither linear nor guaranteed. The Texans remained a playoff presence, but the leap from good to great was too much ground to be covered by an inconsistent quarterback.
But in Week 1, Stroud looked like the kind of player who could finally bridge that gap. On third and 8 in the first quarter, he showcased perfect placement and downfield awareness to set up Houston's first touchdown.
oh CJ Stroud might be good again
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T17:29:12.962Z
Trailing by 10 late in the second quarter, he stepped up in the pocket to rifle a pass through a closing window downfield, giving Nico Collins his first touchdown of the year.
CJ Stroud with the laser through a rapidly closing window. this game is fun as hell
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T18:31:03.441Z
Stroud proved he was ready to take risks. 11 of his 38 passes went at least 15 yards downfield. Nine of his 26 completions were at least 10 yards downfield. On a day where his defense fell well short of expectations, the young veteran was on his way to proving he could be the difference between winning and losing. Unfortunately, with the game on the line, he leaned into the latter.
CJ Stroud with 1st and goal with the game on the linesackoverthrow on a jammed WRstrip sack, game over
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T20:18:50.460Z
After driving Houston to first and goal from the Buffalo nine-yard line, Stroud's protection cracked. Deone Walker hit him for a loss of nine, soaking up the team's final timeout in the process. His next play was a worthy shot to the end zone, but Nico Collins got jammed along the sideline, leaving it to fall to the turf. Finally, Stroud stepped up in the pocket a split-second too late. Greg Rousseau strip-sacked him, ending the game and dooming the Texans to an 0-1 start.
More importantly, it ignited more debate about Stroud, providing viable data for both pro and con camps. Stroud was an opportunistic lightning strike, balancing risk and reward and backing those bets with perfect touch. He was also the jittery mouse in the pocket, shrinking under pressure when it mattered most. If you thought he was ready to make the jump to greatness, you saw evidence to back up your hypothesis. If you thought he was destined to be a journeyman replacement level QB, you saw supporting arguments there as well.
What's the right answer? There isn't one. Stroud's talent remains remarkable. His flaws are unignorable. Until the balance shifts to the former long enough to cancel out the latter, he'll be stuck looking up to guys like Allen the rest of his career.
Let's talk about the rest of Week 1's ups and downs.
Best: The Bears' offense
The New England Patriots had 2025's most efficient offense. They averaged 0.155 expected points added (EPA) per play. On Sunday, Chicago mounted four touchdown scoring drives... in each half. The Bears put up 59 points, setting a Week 1 franchise record. They gained 552 yards and averaged more than 4.2 points per possession. Their EPA? 0.36 per play.
In Week 1, against a defense that ranked 23rd last season, the Bears offense was 232 percent more efficient than last year's most efficient offense. Caleb Williams had 334 total yards and four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) on 41 dropbacks. The Chicago run game net 294 yards and found the end zone six times, averaging a ludicrous 7.5 yards per carry.
.@kylemonangai GOES THE DISTANCE
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 13, 2026
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/SCNBVRgxUZ
A top-10 offense showed off every capability of becoming a top three unit, even if it recedes significantly from Week 1. Young players like Kyle Monangai, Cole Kmet and Rome Odunze came up with huge plays. The blocking left Williams to be sacked only twice at a cost of eight yards. Ben Johnson told us he wanted to have the highest scoring offense in NFL history. Looks like he's going to have a decent shot.
Worst: The Bears defense
A big reason why the Bears might average 35 points per game is because they sure seem primed for 16 more games of shootouts. The Carolina Panthers ranked 26th in offensive efficiency last season at -0.025 EPA per play. On Sunday they hit 0.13 — a number that would have made the the fourth-best offense of 2025, just ahead of the Green Bay Packers.
hoooo buddy, great route from Coker, perfect deep ball from Bryce Young
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T18:01:55.151Z
Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns, a number somewhat influenced by garbage time, but not as much as you'd expect — this game was 31-all in the third quarter. Chicago gave up 7.7 yards per play. Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan had 13 catches on 17 targets for 213 yards and two touchdowns. There will be plenty of Bears games this season decided by who has the ball last.
Best: Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers' leap
Lamar Jackson didn't sign a new contract this offseason. He's only got one year remaining on the $260 million extension he signed in 2023. That means 2026 could be an extremely lucrative year for him.
So far, he looks like a lock to sign the richest contract in NFL history next spring.
Lamar Jackson is a wizard
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T17:30:06.836Z
Jackson only needed 25 passes to throw for 324 yards — all but 23 of which came in the first 45:15 of the game. He ran for the first touchdown of the game and added 40 more yards on the ground. He looked like his prime MVP self. He also had help.
ARE YOU KIDDING?!?!?
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 13, 2026
ZAY FLOWERS WITH A 54-YARD TOUCHDOWN!!!!!
Tune in on @NFLonCBS and @ParamountPlus. pic.twitter.com/rWxOm3QUZV
The Ravens have a depleted receiving corps. Rashod Bateman remains inconsistent. Ja'Kobi Lane had a touchdown catch erased by a holding flag and then left the game due to injury. Mark Andrews is old and Isaiah Likely is a New York Giant. Flowers, on the other hand, turned six targets into 150 yards and a touchdown. This could be his Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakthrough in progress.
Worst: The Browns (all)
Deshaun Watson made it all of five plays before throwing his first interception. He didn't lead Cleveland to the end zone until the Browns trailed 34-3 in the waning minutes of the game. 62 of his 205 passing yards came in the final 2:45, when the Jacksonville Jaguars were mostly interested in getting to the locker room without getting hurt.
A once dominant defense got roasted by an offense that scored on each of its first four drives, then sealed Cleveland's coffin shut with a touchdown to open up the second half. Trevor Lawrence was only sacked once and hit thrice in 24 dropbacks; Myles Garrett averaged more sacks per game last season (1.35) than the Browns earned in their first game without him. Even worse; Lawrence nearly had more touchdown passes (four) than incompletions (five) as he finished the day with a nearly perfect 150.8 passer rating.
Best: D.J. Moore's revival
Moore was a reasonable pickup at a curious price. The Buffalo Bills dealt a second-round pick to the Chicago Bears for him, even though he was coming off a down year, looked to be aging out of his prime and then necessitated a four-year, $110 million extension after arriving in western New York. That's a lot for a 29-year-old wide receiver!
But Moore looked capable of being the WR1 for which Josh Allen has been searching since Stefon Diggs' departure. Moore turned eight targets into 100 yards and a touchdown. His work on the outside crated more space for slot receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid to thrive, resulting in nine catches and 180 yards between them. On a way where the Bills needed every yard they could get to outlast the Houston Texans, Moore proved a game-swinging addition.
Worst: Tyler Shough's first half
It looked like Shough's rookie year magic wouldn't carry over to 2026. Through 40 minutes, he was a disaster. His eight drives led to five punts, two interceptions and a strip sack.
Chuck picks Shough! pic.twitter.com/kdLBQzDgX0
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) September 13, 2026
This passing chart pretty much sums it up.
-10.7 EPA for Tyler Shough in 27 minutes
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T18:26:49.977Z
And yet!
Best: Tyler Shough's second half
The best part of Shough's rookie campaign wasn't quantifiable in passing yards or rating. It was his composure late in games — a benefit of being a rare 26-year-old rookie. He led two different fourth quarter comebacks and three game-winning in nine 2025 appearances. 39 quarterbacks took at least 100 first half snaps last season. Shough's -0.03 EPA per snap ranked 35th. 42 QBs took at least 100 second half and overtime snaps. Shough's 0.106 EPA ranked 22nd.
We got to see that dichotomy on full display in Week 1. Shough trailed 21-0 when he got the ball back with a little under nine minutes to play in the third quarter. Four drives later, the game was tied 24-all. Detroit was a missed 62-yard field goal at the buzzer away from blowing a three-possession lead in regulation.
Shough's stats in that stretch?
25-32, 315 yards, three touchdowns and zero turnovers. He was at his best when he turned downfield — against a depleted Lions secondary, but also one that knew exactly what New Orleans' game plan would be in the midst of a late rally.
Tyler Shough on passes that traveled at least 13 yards downfield vs. the Lions:10-12, 241 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-14T00:53:08.943Z
Is Shough a franchise quarterback? Not until he can do stuff like that for four full quarters. But this felt like a pretty good start.
OLAVEEEEEEEEEE
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 13, 2026
📺 #NOvsDET on FOX pic.twitter.com/QtFiuW5GEL
Worst: The Titans' battle against competence
The Jets got through the entire 2025 season without a single win by double digits. The quarterbacks they beat that year were Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel and Kirk Cousins. On Sunday, Cam Ward outdid them all.
His Titans averaged four yards per play against a rebuilt defense with nowhere to go but up. Tennessee spent significant assets to improve his wide receiving corps. While Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate were the team's two leading receivers, they combined for nine catches and just 78 yards.
A defensive front loaded with new additions failed to sack Geno Smith and hit him only once in 24 dropbacks (and 19 completions). The secondary allowed Adonai Mitchell to have a 100 percent catch rate. Tommy Townsend averaged 46.6 yards per punt but nearly half his kicks resulted in touchbacks. Pretty much everything the Titans did ranged from "below average" to "active disaster." It looks like it will be another season at the top of the draft order in Nashville.
Best: Jordan Love against the Vikings relentless pressure... for three quarters
Per Next Gen Stats, Love completed 11 of 19 throws against the blitz in the first 45 minutes, covering 220 yards with a pair of touchdowns. He didn't take a sack until the final minute of the third quarter. He stepped up through pressure and took a beating in the process. But he still managed electric throws through tight windows:
WATSON TD!
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 13, 2026
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/NVEU4ikenf
And some classic Jordan Love [expletive] that would get a high school quarterback screamed at in practice.
standard Jordan Love no-no-no-no-yes play
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T22:17:50.003Z
It worked. The Packers took a 22-17 lead into the fourth quarter and looked well on their way to a 1-0 start. And then...
Worst: Green Bay's discipline in the fourth quarter
It started with an offsides penalty. A Vikings offsides penalty, ironically. That turned a fourth-and-6 Trey Smack field goal into a fourth-and-1 that convinced head coach Matt LaFleur to keep his offense on the field. But with Josh Jacobs exempt as investigations into his domestic violence arrest continue, MarShawn Lloyd was left to average 2.8 yards per carry. Without a reliable run game, LaFleur called a weak quarterback sneak that failed to gain a yard.
Then, the wheels came off. Back-to-back sacks seemed to put Minnesota's comeback in neutral, but an illegal contact call gave the Vikings a free first down. Carson Wentz, playing in place of an injured Kyler Murray, had his brain break in the red zone... but it was negated by a defensive hold.
Carson Wentz has now had a third-and-long sack and a third down interception negated by Packers penalties
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T23:12:27.892Z
A touchdown shifted the lead to the home team. Suddenly, with the game on the line, the Packers had no answer for Minnesota coordinator Brian Flores' constant blitzes.
Green Bay, your blocking, woof
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T23:21:20.649Z
A 22-10 lead became a 39-22 loss, and all the come-from-ahead losses that sank Green Bay's 2025 emerged from the ether to remind us they aren't going anywhere. After falling behind, the Packers gained 38 yards in three drives, turning the ball over on a strip sack, then an interception to seal the game. With that, both teams expressed their intent to run back last season — a time where the Vikings had a defense made entirely of angry hornets and an iffy quarterback situation, and Green Bay existed solely to increase the per-capita beer consumption on Sundays across Wisconsin.
Best: Season-opening Nick Sirianni
Sirianni improved to 6-0 in season openers as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles — something only two other NFL coaches have ever done. Despite entering Week 1 as a six-point favorite against the Washington Commanders and their rebuilt defense, Philly still needed to stop a late two-point conversion to hold off its division rival.
Still, there was plenty to like here. Dallas Goedert remains a mother moose charging through the wilderness looking for its calf. A defensive line loaded with fairy tale monsters gave up only 3.7 yards per carry against the Commanders running backs. Jalen Hurts, as is tradition, made a statement about his ability to throw over the middle by firing an early touchdown pass between the (college) hashes.
That first score feeling >>> pic.twitter.com/WpOA9mI0Ky
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) September 13, 2026
It was a perfect Eagles performance; an anxiety building win that was closer than it needed to be and destined to be dissected in unhushed tones on talk radio for the next week. What did we learn from Philadelphia in Week 1? That it's another standard Nick Sirianni season for the birds.
Best: This Sonny Styles sack
Saquon Barkley is one of the NFL's strongest running backs. And the Washington rookie turned him into a Ludacris song.
every NFL offensive coordinator, quietly making the note to never block Sonny Styles with a running back
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T22:21:39.617Z
I thought you should see that.
3 unexpected fantasy studs
- QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (13 percent owned): 361 passing yards, three touchdowns, 10 rushing yards, one touchdown, one interception, two sacks taken
- WR Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints (seven percent): seven catches, 69 yards, one touchdown
- TE Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals (one percent): five catches, 78 yards, one touchdown
3 bewildering fantasy duds
- WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (100 percent owned): four targets, two catches, 29 yards, six rushing yards
- TE Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears (100 percent): two targets, zero catches
- WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (100 percent): four targets, two catches, 12 yards
This article originally appeared on For The Win: C.J. Stroud collapsed at the precipice of greatness, and the best/worst of Week 1
