The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' disappointing (and rain-delayed) loss to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday had a bigger impact on survivor pools than even the Chargers' Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. Circa Survivor announced Monday that 36 percent of its $25 million contest was eliminated by Tampa's loss.
However, I stand by my recommendation of Tampa as last week's most strategic pick. When accounting for 18 weeks, and attempting to save better teams for later in the year, taking the Bucs at home against Cleveland the second week of the season wasn't a bad pick.
It didn't work out, because this is football and there are risks with every game (five underdogs won outright last week). But I at least warned about the risks with Tampa before taking the Eagles
as my official Week 2 pick (and watching them nearly lose to the Titans). Keep those potential pitfalls in mind as we move into Week 3.
The Week 3 survivor pick most likely to win
- Kansas City Chiefs (at Miami Dolphins)
Record: 2-0
The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL for my money, and the Chiefs have proven themselves to still be one of the best. KC's offense is especially scary, averaging a league-best 457.5 yards per game and 32 points through two weeks. Even at home, Miami doesn't have the firepower to keep up.
The most strategic Week 3 survivor pick
- Detroit Lions (vs. New York Jets)
Record: 1-1
I don't think the Jets are the cupcake team people might've expected coming into the season, but I do think the Lions are better and have a clear advantage as 6.5-point home favorites. Not to mention, some of the other favorites people might've considered this week are either playing on the road or against a divisional rival, including the Bengals, Panthers, Texans and 49ers.
Detroit doesn't get another home game against a team projected to be bad until Week 14 against the Titans. So, now actually isn't a bad time to burn through a team with a bad defense that leaves a high variance for results.
My Week 2 survivor pick
- Lions
For the first time this season, I'm taking my own advice on strategy and rolling with Detroit. Like I said, this game won't be a walk in the park for Detroit. The Jets are just an overtime loss to the Packers away from being 2-0, and their offense has been surprisingly competent. Which could present problems for the Lions, who are giving up 35 points a game. But Detroit is still really hard to stop, and the Jets haven't seen a back like Jahmyr Gibbs yet this season.
Record: 2-0
Already used: Jaguars, Eagles
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL survivor pool Week 3 picks: Lions among safest of teams on upset alert
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