Todd Bowles wasn't the Tampa Bay Buccaneers first choice when he took over the franchise's head coaching role in 2022. He didn't even have to be part of a coaching search; Bruce Arians' sudden offseason retirement that March led the team to promote him from defensive coordinator rather than roll the dice in a picked-over marketplace.
Bowles used the opportunity to help erase the failures that marked the end of his New York Jets tenure. He won three straight NFC South championships, albeit with a 27-24 record in his first three years. But the Carolina Panthers broke his serve in 2025 (at 8-9) despite starting the season 6-2. The franchise retained him, hoping for a rebound in a winnable South this fall.
Instead, the Buccaneers are 0-4. Their postseason
odds are scant. Bowles' odds to be the first coach fired in 2026, however, have continued to rise.
What's gone wrong for the Buccaneers in 2026?
It's quicker to bring up what's gone right. Bowles remains a steady defensive architect. Despite the 0-4 start, Tampa Bay's -0.066 expected points added (EPA) per snap rank fifth in the NFL. The Buccaneers rank fourth in yards allowed and second whilst giving up a meager 3.2 yards per carry. Unfortunately, that may only serve to drive up the trade value of veterans like Vita Vea or A'Shawn Robinson before this year's in-season deadline.
The offense has been a disaster. Baker Mayfield signed a three-year, $165 million contract extension in the preseason. Through three games, his -0.189 EPA per dropbackranks dead last among starting quarterbacks. Losing Mike Evans was supposed to create opportunities for veterans and young wideouts to step up. Instead, Chris Godwin is limping through his least productive season since 2017. Emeka Egbuka has failed to reclaim the potential that made him a rookie of the year candidate in the first half of 2025. Tampa Bay is turnover prone (nine in four games) and inefficient even when protecting the ball.
It may not get better anytime soon. Mayfield dislocated his thumb in a Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. That made Jalon Daniels the first undrafted rookie free agent to start a game in the first four weeks of the season in modern (post-1970) league history. Key defensive players Antoine Winfield Jr., Rueben Bain and Benjamin Morrison are all dealing with injuries of their own.
While the rest of the NFC South has risen, the Buccaneers have sunk to the bottom. It's difficult to envision them fighting back to the top, even with a healthy Mayfield. And since there's no way to reasonably part ways with the quarterback before 2028, team executives will be itching to find a coach who can restore him to his previous luster once more.
Will Bowles be fired before the regular season ends?
Barring an unlikely turnaround, there's a very good chance. But Bowles is respected enough and has had enough success in his Tampa past that ownership may give him the chance to finish out the season, all while mapping out its next head coaching hire in the waning weeks of the year. But even if Bowles makes it through 17 games, he's likely out the door on Black Monday (the day after the regular season ends) unless the Buccaneers pull off one of the biggest comebacks in league history.
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This article originally appeared on For The Win: Is Buccaneers Todd Bowles the NFL's most fireable head coach?
