Week 1, per tradition, threw a whole bunch of our preseason premonitions right out the window.
The Los Angeles Chargers seemed on the brink of a breakthrough. Then they failed to get anything going offensively and were shredded by Jacoby Brissett in an uncompetitive loss against an Arizona Cardinals team with one of the league's least reliable rosters.
The Los Angeles Rams were Super Bowl favorites. Australian weirdness aside, they wound up being the only team in the NFL not to score double-digit points in the opening week. The New England Patriots couldn't find a way to beat Drew Lock in a Super Bowl rematch Sam Darnold exited after his first drive.
Still, some August intuition held true. The Chicago Bears offense was as good as could have been
hoped. Their defense was every bit as sloppy as expected. The Miami Dolphins looked overmatched, albeit in an entertaining way. The Minnesota Vikings were buoyed by a tarnished former top-two draft pick at quarterback, even if it wasn't the one we expected.
What lessons can we apply to Week 2? Let's take a look at the 16-game slate.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 2 picks.
and:
and, finally:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) pair of .jpgs:
and:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) over the Cleveland Browns
I'm not especially optimistic about the Buccaneers after last week's deflation in Cincinnati. Which means it's a great time to pick them against the Browns and burn them for the rest of the survivor season.
Last week: 1-0
Hardest favorite to back: Denver Broncos (-2.5) over the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars passed their Week 1 test with flying colors, albeit against the desiccated husk of the Cleveland Browns. The Broncos went in the other direction, giving plenty of reason to doubt Bo Nix and, more surprisingly, a once-mighty defense. Even in Week 2, this game has postseason implications.
Why I like this pick:
Denver is playing at home and, almost certainly, has spent the week replaying every single missed tackle or blown blocking assignment that sunk the team in Kansas City. Bo Nix knows how poorly he played. Rookie offensive coordinator Davis Webb understands Jaylen Waddle, acquired for a first round pick in the offseason, had three targets and two yards in his Bronco debut. All these things have to have gnawed away at a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
The early schedule remains tough. The Jaguars were a machine in Week 1, but it came against Cleveland, which tempers the excitement a bit. The Broncos were undone by Kenneth Walker III's dynamic runs on Monday. The Jaguars counter with one ofthe league's least accomplished tailback rotations. Trevor Lawrence's dynamic passing attack is going from lowland Florida to mountain peaks.
Why I don't like this pick:
Jacksonville had Week 1's highest sack rate at 17.4 percent. Sure, that was against Cleveland's largely theoretical offensive line, but Deshaun Watson was fully invested in throwing as many checkdowns as possible and he still got brought down five times. Meanwhile, the Broncos gave us this last week.
George Karlaftis is straight-up rude
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-09-15T03:05:01.561Z
Concerning!
Lawrence has only played one game at Mile High Stadium, but it was a 274-yard, four touchdown, zero-turnover performance in a 34-20 win... nine months ago.
Last week: 1-0
Upset pick of the week: Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) over the Los Angeles Chargers
Well hey, I picked all chalk this week. But if I had to switch one pick (and it wasn't the Jaguars, as discussed above), I might be tempted to roll with another extension of the Chargers' misery.
Why I like this pick:
The Chargers don't have much of a homefield advantage most games, but especially not when a former Los Angeles team comes to town. Kirk Cousins was able to execute a competent offense in Week 1, directing most of his passing traffic through Ashton Jeanty and Michael Mayer. Jeanty and Mike Washington combined for 143 rushing yards on 30 carries, which gives them a good chance to keep the offense on schedule even against a stingy LA run defense.
Las Vegas recorded five sacks last Sunday with a 44.4 percent pressure rate. The Chargers just gave up three sacks and a 26 percent pressure rate last week, but that was against a Cardinals team that blitzed only five times. Justin Herbert averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt under pressure in that game. He could have a similarly muted impact if Maxx Crosby and company can rattle him early and often.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Chargers got lit up by a journeyman quarterback last week, but Jacoby Brissett plays a very different game than late stage Kirk Cousins. The Raiders largely dinked and dunked their way to prosperity in Week 1, but that was against an overmatched Miami Dolphins team. Los Angeles has a much better roster and, truly, should not be as bad as it looked in the season opener.
Last week: 0-1 (Argh,C.J. Stroud, so close)
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 2: An 0-2 start for the Broncos?
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
