Week 2 saw a return to normalcy in the NFL -- as long as you weren't a rising young quarterback or a fan of the Los Angeles Chargers.
The high-scoring laser show of the opening weekend dulled down to your typical planetarium journey through the stars. Defenses make adjustments. Film gets absorbed and gameplans begin to reveal themselves. And, if you're the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders or New York Giants, your rising franchise quarterback gets hurt.
Injuries to Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Jaxson Dart threw a wrench into this week's lineup. Are the Tennessee Titans down so bad they can't handle travel vlogger Jameis Winston at quarterback? Can Case Keenum make Nick Sirianni an even bigger target of talk radio rage in eastern Pennsylvania?
Is Marcus Mariota about to get smashed into tiny pieces by the Seattle Seahawks defense?
We've got some bets to take advantage of the opportunities created by either injury or, in the Bills' case, a showdown against a rapidly disassembling Chargers team. Joining me is our fantasy and betting expert and Rhode Island Scumbag Mike "Yaj" Boyajian. All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag bets follow.
Welp, here we are sitting at 4-4 so far. Very boring if you ask me. I was realllllly wrong about the Browns-Bucs showdown (c’mon Baker!), and the Titans surprisingly hung with the Eagles, but the other two games were on point. Let’s try to actually make a profit this week!
Scumbag Lock of the Week (tm) I: Buffalo Bills (-7) vs. LA Chargers (one unit)
Let’s keep this one simple. The Bills are playing great football right now. Josh Allen looks like dad strength has added another layer of greatness to his game.
Yes, they will certainly be short on receivers this week after injuries to DJ Moore and Keon Coleman, but has anyone WATCHED the Chargers this season? WOOF. They look AWFUL right now.
The offense is an absolute mess. The defense hasn't been a world beater in its own right. With ugly losses to the Cardinals and Raiders the past two weeks, the young season is looking bleak for the powder blue and gold. I don’t think a cross country 1 p.m. game against the offensive wagon that is Buffalo will help them get back on track. Josh Allen’s march to the MVP continues in Week 3.
Scumbag Lock of the Week (tm) II: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (one unit)
Let’s keep it rolling against the Steelers again, this time hosting the dangerous Bengals. Joe Burrow and Co. got back to their bread and butter last week, utilizing the elite duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins en route to a road victory against the Texans. Now they head into Pittsburgh to face off against the shell of Aaron Rodgers and the hapless Steelers offense.
After what we saw last week against the Patriots, it’s a shock to me this spread is only 3.5. Pittsburgh could barely muster the three points they put up last week. Now they have to keep up with the Bengals and their high powered offense? Let’s keep in mind the Bengals’ defense is much improved this year as well. Combine that with the injuries to the Steelers’ running backs, and I believe we have a no brainer here.
Scumbag Lock of the Week (tm) III: Tennessee Titans (+2.5) at New York Giants (one unit)
Tennessee showed gumption last week, although the offense still hasn’t looked great. Lucky for them, they get to face a Giants squad that just lost their starting QB for the remainder of the regular season, and their best WR is very banged up (still recovering from last year's knee injury, plus a new shoulder concern).
Jameis Winston looked completely out of sorts in relief of Jaxson Dart last week. This may carry over to this Sunday as well (Winston is like a box of chocolates… you know the rest). We also get a little taste of a “revenge” game as well, as Titans assistant Brian Daboll makes his return to MetLife after his dismissal as Giants head coach last season. I’ll take a chance on New York still reeling from their Monday night debacle and allowin the Titans to steal one in the Meadowlands.
Scumbag Lock of the Week (tm) IV: Seattle Seahawks (-7) at Washington Commanders (one unit)
Although I typically like to avoid west coast teams playing 1 p.m. east coast games, this one is too good to pass up. Washington is dealing with significant injuries (offensive line, Jayden Daniels, etc.) and now has the pleasure of facing off against the NFL’s best defense. Yes, Seattle may still be without Sam Darnold, but Drew Lock is more than serviceable, and generally understands the assignment (throw to Jax Smith-Njigba). I’m not deterred by the touchdown spread here.
- Last week: 2-2 (.500), +0 units
- Year to date: 4-4 (.500), +0 units
My non-Scumbag bets: Carolina Panthers -2.5 over the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 over the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions -6.5 over the New York Jets (one unit each)
I didn't think I'd ever back Bryce Young as a road favorite, but I also never thought he'd be fantasy football's second-highest scorer in any capacity in his career, and here we are. The Browns beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, but that felt more like a treatise on the franchise's ongoing slide into irrelevance than proof Cleveland was figuring things out (not you, Denzel Boston, our precious big bodied baby boy).
The Browns beat Tampa with an average throw distance of 3.7 yards downfield. The Panthers are coming off a game in which they bounced back from allowing 59 points to the Chicago Bears by holding the Atlanta Falcons, with a garbage quarterback of their own (Cooper Rush), to three. Carolina has the better team. Cleveland has Deshaun Watson, a man formerly accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as "predatory behavior," clamoring for fan support he is not going to get.
As a Patriots homer, picking against them feels wrong. But I am also a Rhode Island chunk of garbage, which means I also support fellow Rhode Island high school football legend (tm) Liam Coen (he went on to lead UMass to the I-AA title game, I quit after one season to run cross country. We're basically the same!). Coen's offense has enough playmakers to test New England's secondary depth beyond Christian Gonzalez (though Carlton Davis III's return is a concern). The Patriot defense has looked great, but that was against Drew Lock and a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
Factor in homefield advantage and Drake Maye's sudden lack of competence against pressure and you've got enough for me to predict a Jaguars win.
The Lions have the offensive firepower to run with anyone, putting up 31 points in each of their first two games. The Jets have improved, but catching up to Detroit is a big ask. Aaron Glenn's defense limited the Packers last week for three quarters, but that was against a lineup depleted by injury and Josh Jacobs' terrible decision-making. After hanging on to beat the Saints and getting stomped by the Bills, Dan Campbell needs a statement win at home.
But, given the Lions' secondary, it should be a good day for Adonai Mitchell, kiiiiiiiid (I look forward to his seven target, two catch afternoon).
- Last week: 2-1-1 (.625), +1 unit
- Year to date: 3-5-1 (.389), -2 units
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL best bets, Week 3: For whom Jameis Winston tolls
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