Through two games of the opening week of the 2026 NFL season, it looked like our "everyone is rusty, take the unders" strategy would bear fruit. The New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks engaged in an injury-riddled rock fight. The preseason Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams failed to break double digits.
Then Sunday came, and we were buried in a landslide of our own smugness. It turns out, only the defenses were behind the curve. A Chicago Bears-Carolina Panthers game nearly racked up 100 total points. The Houston Texans staunch defense got roasted in a track meet with the Buffalo Bills. In the end, the Rams were the *only* team not to score at least 10 points in Week 1.
While our resident fantasy and betting expert (and Rhode Island Scumbag)
Mike "Yaj" Boyajian was able to salvage a .500 record, I went 1-4 to dig an immediate hole. We were 0-2 on shared bets, which is bad news for our Rhody dirtbag instincts but an interesting start to a "FADE THESE GUYS" philosophy. That leaves work to be done and a small sample size of data from which to make our picks.
All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes. My non-Scumbag bets follow.
Damn. Another vanilla start to the year for me. 2-2 isn’t terrible, but it sure isn’t fun for anyone. At least I didn’t pull a 2024 and put myself in a six-unit hole to dig myself out of (spoiler alert... I did!). With all the uncertainty going into Week 1, I’ll take the .500 record and look to build. Let’s look at some intriguing games for Week 2.
Scumbag Lock of the Week I: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Tennessee Titans (one unit)
The Eagles started off hot last week, only to see Washington come roaring back before falling short of victory (partially in thanks to Stefon Diggs forgetting you can’t use the goalpost as a fire pole). Still, the new offense looked promising, and the defense did their part for three quarters of the game.
The Titans… stunk. There is simply no other way to put it. They got smoked by the Jets last week, and this week isn’t looking much different. Breece Hall had his way with the Titans D last week. This shouldn’t change with Barkley and Hurts.
Scumbag Lock of the Week II: New England Patriots (-4.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (one unit)
Full disclosure. Yes, I have a pair of eyes. Yes, I watched the Patriots struggle last Wednesday against the vaunted Seattle defense. Yes, I’m still taking the Patriots to cover this week with the Steelers coming to town.
Pittsburgh barely beat a team that trotted out Cooper Rush, a man who looked like a season ticket holder that had won a contest to start behind center. Sunday is supposed to be an absolute slog in Foxboro, which should lead to some bully ball. Keep in mind this is a revenge game for the Pats and Rhamondre Stevenson in particular. To recap, last season the Pats had FOUR fumbles (two from Stevenson) in a brutal loss to Pittsburgh. I like the potential for the Pats to get themselves in order and shut down Grandpapa Rodgers and co.
Scumbag Lock of the Week III: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (one unit)
This one is pretty simple. As long as the Browns are starting Deshaun Watson, I’m betting against them.
He looked HORRENDOUS last week, despite the upgrades the Browns made with their pass catchers. He also seems very apathetic in his interviews, leading me to believe he doesn’t give two [expletive]s about winning, or the Browns, or his teammates, or anything else besides his paycheck and Deshaun Watson.
Let’s add to the fire that this is the man the Browns chose over Baker Mayfield, who is hellbent on proving Cleveland made a mistake letting him go. Cincinnati was able to take advantage of Tampa’s lackluster defense last week. Watson certainly won’t do the same. Bucs by a landslide.
Scumbag Lock of the Week IV: Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (one unit)
I had to take at least one underdog here, and the Raiders are the pick. This is just as much of a testament to how awesome Ashton Jeanty looked as how brutal the Chargers looked against the Cardinals last week.
Maybe they just haven’t nailed down Mike McDaniel’s offense yet. Maybe Omarion Hampton is a bad match for what McDaniel wants to do. Maybe they just weren’t up for last week’s opener. Either way, if Jeanty runs wild again, the Raiders have a great shot, especially if LA looks as bad as it did last week.
- Last week: 2-2 (.500), +0 units
- Year to date: 2-2 (.500), +0 units
My non-scumbag bets: Green Bay Packers -3.5 at the New York Jets, New England Patriots -4.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans -2.5 over the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys OVER 49.5 points (one unit each)
The Packers are a team that famously plays with its food and allows big comebacks. But the Jets are getting more respect than they deserve for beating a very, very bad Tennessee Titans team. I need more evidence before I confirm this isn't just the 2025 team all over again.
Like Green Bay, New England has plenty to prove after its own collapse. The Steelers beat Cooper Rush last week, but Aaron Rodgers needed 40 passes to get to 220 yards. The Patriots' iffy pass rush won't be as big an issue with a quarterback averse to taking hits and unable to consistently scramble in his old age. Drake Maye, good for three quarters against the Seattle Seahawks, gets an easier matchup and a chance for redemption.
I don't understand what happened to the Houston defense in Week 1, but there's too much talent for it to remain that way. Joe Burrow is dealing with tightness and was unable to maximize his receiving talent in a relatively drama-free win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Now the Texans remain at home and are getting value with this number.
2025's two worst defenses clash in Dallas. 50 is a high total, but neither of those units looked particularly fixed in their season openers.
- Last week: 1-4 (.200), -3 units
- Year to date: 1-4 (.200), -3 units
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Best NFL Bets, Week 2: Patriots revenge, Raiders rise and a bunch of bad teams
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