Through six weeks of the season, it's not a surprise that the most underachieving teams in the NFL are the ones with frustrating quarterback play. What is surprising, however, are the quarterbacks who dot that list.
Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert lead teams with a combined 4-14 record one-third of the way through the 2026 regular season. All three dropped below well below their standard in Week 6 losses that landed them in this week's gross quarterback rankings. Hope has already vacated the Los Angeles Chargers' locker room. It's draining quickly for the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams.
How do we quantify that disappointment? I've got a system.
There's no perfect metric for a quarterback's impact, but expected points added
(EPA) helps measure their ability to swing the outcome of a game through the air, on the ground and through avoiding negative plays. Last year, EPA told us Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford were a cut above the rest of the league's quarterbacks in the regular season, netting 151.3 and 120.3 EPA, respectfully. No one else in the league topped triple digits. Unsurprisingly, those two led playoff teams and finished second and first, respectively, in MVP voting.
We can use EPA to help dissect which quarterbacks underwhelmed the hardest in their debut. By comparing their Week 6 EPA across their early 2026 season averages, we get a better idea of whose fans should be most annoyed. And so, we end up with a "worst QBs" list that doesn't include Cam Ward or even Bo Nix, simply because their starts to the season have been so disappointing we've been moderately conditioned not to expect more this fall. You have to be at least decent in 2026 — or otherworldly awful on a given week — to wind up in the gross QB rankings.
We'll also look at completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which gives you a good idea of which quarterbacks are making tough throws (and, in some cases, being bailed out by exceptional catches). All data come from NFL Pro.
We'll also keep a running tally of the times each quarterback lands here. We'll score that placement track meet style — 10 points for first place, then eight, six, four, two and one — in order to figure out who was truly 2026's grossest passer.
Honorable mention: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
- 2026 EPA/game: 11.1
- Week 6 EPA: 2.0
- Difference: 9.1 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: 5.5 percent
- Week 6 CPOE: 3.2 percent
- Difference: 2.3 points worse
Purdy is a victim of his own success for the second straight week. His brilliant start to the season lifted his EPA to astronomical levels. He's been sliding back to earth since, particularly in the second half Monday night after losing Mike Evans to injury against the Washington Commanders.
San Francisco's receiving depth has been shredded by injury. If Purdy can keep his team afloat, he'll earn MVP votes even if he can't match his pace from Weeks 1 through 4.
5. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- 2026 EPA/game: 4.0
- Week 6 EPA: -6.0
- Difference: 10 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: 1.8 percent
- Week 6 CPOE: 3.0 percent
- Difference: 1.2 points better
36 dropbacks. 194 net yards. Puka Nacua had 80 of those yards, but it will be much easier to limit his impact now that Davante Adams is out for an extended period with a serious hamstring strain. No one else on the roster had more than 31 receiving yards last week. Konata Mumpfield, next man up with Adams out, had two catches for 15 yards.
Stafford was efficient in a way that didn't matter. Only four of his 25 completions came more than 10 yards downfield. Zero came on deep balls. On an afternoon where Sean McVay confusingly abandoned an effective run game, the Rams were left to squeeze blood from a stone and get beaten by a team that could only score via field goal.
The veteran's average air yards per attempt have declined in each of the last four weeks. It's hard to imagine they'll go lower than the 4.7 he put out Sunday, but that was also against theleague's 31st-ranked passing defensecoming into Week 6. The Rams lacked splash plays and eschewed a grinding style that could have overwhelmed a division foe. It was a failure on multiple levels, and Stafford was one of them.
4. Jameis Winston, New York Giants
- 2026 EPA/game: -3.0
- Week 6 EPA: -15.4
- Difference: 12.4 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: -3.9 percent
- Week 6 CPOE: -18.3 (!) percent
- Difference: 14.4 points worse
Things were bad enough that John Harbaugh replaced Winston with J.J. McCarthy Sunday. Then, McCarthy played well enough to keep that audition rolling, though New York hasn't tipped its hand in one direction or the other when it comes to its QB1 (it's gotta be McCarthy).
Winston's entire NFL persona has been built around massive risks and massive rewards downfield. But he didn't throw a single deep ball against New Orleans. He had nine passes travel between 11 and 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. More of those were caught by the Saints than his teammates.
BLACKMON INT#Saints | 📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/9MMtuH9lSx
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 18, 2026
Winston was sacked four times on only 30 dropbacks despite facing his second-lowest pressure rate of the season. His 64.7 accurate pass rate is by far the lowest he's recorded in a season in which he's made at least one start. McCarthy entered the game and blew the doors off the Saints because they'd gotten used to a quarterback who wasn't taking big shots downfield and, when he was, wasn't putting them in places his wideouts could get them.
Now we see if McCarthy can keep that up, or if the element of surprise was vital to his shocking Week 6 output.
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
- 2026 EPA/game: -7.2
- Week 6 EPA: -19.9
- Difference: 12.7 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: -2.8 percent
- Week 6 CPOE: -6.2 percent
- Difference: 3.4 points worse
Herbert has largely avoided these ranks thanks to an underwhelming 2025 season and an unpleasant start to 2026 that knocked his baseline and expectations way below his perceived value. But even the lowest of standards couldn't cover up his clunker in Kansas City.
Caveats exist. There was almost no run support behind him. His tailbacks averaged 2.7 yards per carry and posted a 20 percent success rate. His receiving corps has been hamstrung by injury and the healthy players are struggling. His offensive line is more of a theory than an actual NFL unit.
Brought the pressure to the pocket yesterday 🫣 pic.twitter.com/MAxaJlM3d1
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 19, 2026
Things have been grim in 2026, but Week 6 was a spelunking expedition to find a new low. In that, at least, the Chargers finally found success.
Cochrane caught his second-career interception yesterday 🙂↕️ @jacko_cochrane pic.twitter.com/eIsml3Y1Ka
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 19, 2026
Herbert has faced pressure on a career-worst 42.1 percent of his dropbacks this season. He has no reliable bail-out option. His throws are getting tipped or redirected as defensive linemen get their hands in his passing lanes.
There is nothing unpredictable or sneaky about Mike McDaniel's offense. He continues to lean into play action concepts even when his run game stinks, doing nothing to create openings downfield but leaving room for his quarterback to turn around and stare into immediate pressure.
FURIOUS GEORGE BREAKS IT UP ❌ pic.twitter.com/wSa874fp9q
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 18, 2026
Herbert has always been a player whose tape painted a better picture of him than his stats. But this year's box scores are revealing. He's thrown at least one interception in every game this fall. He's only found the end zone five times, and never more than once in a game. His 71.1 percent on-target throw rate is the lowest of his career and 25th-best in the NFL.
Whatever curse that haunts the Chargers franchise has seeped into his bones. Los Angeles doesn't need a new coach, it needs an exorcist.
2. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
- 2026 EPA/game: 7.3
- Week 6 EPA: -13.4
- Difference: 20.7 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: Three percent
- Week 6 CPOE: -5.2 percent
- Difference: 8.2 points worse
Things could have been even worse for Prescott. He had a fourth quarter interception wiped off the board thanks to a questionable roughing the passer penalty (the Packers had at least three other roughing flags that were well deserved).
Lukas Van Ness gets called for roughing the passer, Dak Prescott gets an interception taken off the board
— Christian D'Andrea (@trainisland.bsky.social) 2026-10-19T03:17:39.117Z
Prescott was tasked with fighting from underneath after Green Bay took a first quarter lead and extended it to 17-0 at halftime. That meant moving away from an effective-if-uninteresting run game -- the Cowboys had a 47 percent success rate on the ground -- and dropping back into obvious passing situations. Dallas faced third-and-eight or longer six times. The only conversion came via an illegal contact penalty on Packer linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper.
Green Bay didn't blitz especially often, which left crowded secondaries for Prescott to search for space. The Packers' front did a solid job of collapsing his pockets and forcing him to throw on the move -- his 2.9 second average between snap and throw was his highest of the season so far. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon did great work disguising his coverage, sneaking his backs into places where they could create havoc and crush potential scoring drives.
Gimme dat pic.twitter.com/4Q9b72ZGHy
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 19, 2026
For the second straight week, Prescott threw a single touchdown against two interceptions, recorded a passer rating in the 60s and lost to a team with "Bay" in its name. Those interceptions counted for -8.4 EPA on their own in Week 6. Each boosted Green Bay's win probability by double digits.
Prescott started the season on a heater, giving him more room to fall down the gross quarterback ranking hole. On Sunday night, an unheralded Packer defense stood up to his all-star receivers in coverage and produced the pressure needed to derail a predictable passing game.
1. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
- 2026 EPA/game: 6.9
- Week 6 EPA: -14
- Difference: 20.9 points worse
- 2026 CPOE: -0.5 percent
- Week 6 CPOE: 1.1 percent
- Difference: 1.6 points better
The Chicago Bears had a simple blueprint against Penix. They swarmed Bijan Robinson, bracketed Drake London and threw extra defenders into his pocket whenever possible, effectively daring the young quarterback to beat them by exploiting single coverage elsewhere
That is not what Michael Penix Jr. did. Through he threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, he struggled against a blitz-heavy Chicago pass rush. Kyler Gordon had three sacks Sunday, which is incredible even before you consider Kyler Gordon is a cornerback.
WELCOME BACK, KYLER GORDON
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 18, 2026
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/mLaoOqQgPt
Penix was sacked five times. He was sacked on third down thrice. He was strip-sacked twice. He faced a near 50-percent pressure rate and looked exactly like the player who'd been wonderful from a clean pocket and an absolute disaster from a messy one.
This was anathema on a day when the Falcons' quarterback was tasked with rallying his team back from an early deficit. 13 of his 33 passes traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He completed only four, largely leaning on Jahan Dotson with his top playmakers blanketed.
Through four games, Penix has averaged -0.67 EPA per dropback, 27th best among starting quarterbacks. His EPA from a clean pocket is 0.4, sixth-best in the NFL. There's a tightrope to be walked here, but the Falcons will be stuck struggling with the balance until they figure things out or give up entirely.
Still too-early FTW Gross QB rankings after Week 6
1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 18 points
2. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 16
3. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 14
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 13
t-5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 12
t-5. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12
7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 11
t-8. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 10
t-8. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: 10
t-8. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins: 10
t-8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 10
t-12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 8
t-12.. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 8
t-12. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: 8
15. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 7
16. Geno Smith, New York Jets: 6
t-17. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 4
t-17. Jameis Winston, New York Giants: 4
19. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
t-20. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 1
t-20. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 1
t-20. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 1
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL quarterback ranks: What's wrong with Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford?
