Justin Herbert is having the worst season of his career. It could cost Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh his job.
Herbert was supposed to be the centerpiece of a throwback offense. Operating behind a rebuilt offensive line and with a strong tailback rotation behind him, the best case scenario was a 2023 Michigan Wolverines redux, only with a Super Bowl on the line instead of a national title. Instead, Herbert has looked like the NFL version of J.J. McCarthy rather than the real thing.
That sounds like exaggeration. It is not. He's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. Pro Football Reference pegs his on-target throw rate at a robust 49 percent. The Chargers are 0-4 and the dream hire of Harbaugh has left the team with a 22-18 record,
zero playoff wins the last two seasons and a miniscule chance to even make it back in January.
This, amazingly, did not make him the grossest quarterback of Week 4. Let's talk about it.
There's no perfect metric for a quarterback's impact, but expected points added (EPA) helps measure their ability to swing the outcome of a game through the air, on the ground and through avoiding negative plays. Last year, EPA told us Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford were a cut above the rest of the league's quarterbacks in the regular season, netting 151.3 and 120.3 EPA, respectfully. No one else in the league topped triple digits. Unsurprisingly, those two led playoff teams and finished second and first, respectively, in MVP voting.
We can use EPA to help dissect which quarterbacks underwhelmed the hardest in their debut. By comparing their Week 4 EPA across their 2025 averages, we get a better idea of whose fans should be most annoyed. And so, we end up with a "worst QBs" list that doesn't include Jameis Winston or Cam Ward, simply because their standards are subterranean. You have to be at least decent in the past — or otherworldly awful on a given week — to wind up in the gross QB rankings.
We'll also look at completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which gives you a good idea of which quarterbacks are making tough throws (and, in some cases, being bailed out by exceptional catches). All data come from NFL Pro.
We'll also keep a running tally of the times each quarterback lands here. We'll score that placement track meet style — 10 points for first place, then eight, six, four, two and one — in order to figure out who was truly 2026's grossest passer.
Honorable mention: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- 2025 EPA/game: 7.1
- Week 4 EPA: -2.6
- Difference: 9.7 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: Two percent
- Week 4 CPOE: Zero percent
- Difference: Two points worse
Stafford threw a pair of early interceptions and it didn't matter because the 2026 Eagles are merely an exercise to see what kind of sandwich has the most satisfying impact when whipped at Nick Sirianni.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
- 2025 EPA/game: 0.6
- Week 4 EPA: –9.8
- Difference: 10.4 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: 3.1 percent
- Week 4 CPOE: -3.1 percent
- Difference: 6.2 points worse
Week 4 was a clash of familiar and new maladies for Herbert. He's still struggling in offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel's offense, which leans on quicker throws and timing routes that made more sense for a lineup with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle rather than one defaulting to Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris in place of an injured Ladd McConkey. He also had to deal with the loss of his two starting tackles as both Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, arguably the league's top bookends when healthy, both exited a 30-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks due to injury.
This has created a situation in which Herbert is getting blitzed less than ever in his career but pressured at an all-time high. The Seahawks only sent extra rushers on every one in five dropbacks. They still generated pressure 55 percent of the time (a season high) while sacking him four times.
Strip-sack @UchennaN_42. Recovery @derick_hall9 . Seahawks ball.
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 4, 2026
THE DARK SIDE 😮💨
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/CGIJi8mBPW
This doesn't mean Herbert's problems are not his own. There's no excusing this decision:
20-YARD RETURN ON THE PICK 😮💨 @ErnestJones
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 4, 2026
Welcome to The Dark Side.
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/eOq36faKS2
He has yet to have a game with more touchdown passes than interceptions. After completing 43 percent of his deep throws last season he's down to 27 percent through four weeks. His on-target throw rate isat a ghastly sub-50 percent. These are the numbers of a player set to vacate his spot to a future franchise quarterback, not one getting paid $52.5 million per year. The flip has switched for Herbert, only it's gone from "underrated darling" to "overrated mess" through the first quarter of 2026.
4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
- 2025 EPA/game: 0.4
- Week 4 EPA: –13.5
- Difference: 13.9 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: Three percent
- Week 4 CPOE: -10.9 percent
- Difference: 13.9 points worse
The swap from Kevin Patullo to Sean Mannion at offensive coordinator has yet to produce its desired results. That was always a risk when Nick Sirianni tabbed a man with only three seasons of coaching experience to lead -- or at least take the fall for -- his offense.
Hurts' frustrating start to 2026 has been a confluence of issues, including the departure of A.J. Brown, the lack of success from rookies Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers (who has yet to make a regular season appearance due to injury) and the health of DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. But he's also been entirely predictable. Almost half his passes go to the right sideline. Blitzing him, as the Los Angeles Rams did 60 percent of the time on Sunday, forces him to quickly offload the ball instead of stepping into throws downfield (that's where the run after catch skills of Goedert and a still-developing Lemon would have come in pretty handy). Not blitzing him works too, because the Philly offensive line isn't what it once was.
With a sub-60 percent completion rate and a -23.4 EPA -- fifth-worst in the NFL -- Hurts is slogging through the worst season of his career (albeit in a very small sample size). Mannion hasn't done him many favors.
Despite Saquon Barkley averaging 1.15 rush yards over expected (RYOE) before leaving Week 4 with a hamstring injury --seventh-best among running backs-- the Eagles offense has abandoned him at times, including after halftime in Week 3's loss to the Chicago Bears. What's just as concerning is the lack of play-action passes that can create the space Philadelphia's skill players need to operate, especially with a quarterback prone to pressure.
Hurts' play-action rate in his All-Pro 2022 was 30.1 percent. This year that's down to a career-low 17.4.
Hurts has been bad. The playcalling behind him and the injuries around him have piled onto that. This won't be a referendum on the quarterback's career. It might be for Sirianni and Mannion.
3. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
- 2025 EPA/game: 3.9
- Week 4 EPA: –14.5
- Difference: 18.4 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: 3.6 percent
- Week 4 CPOE: -9.9 percent
- Difference: 13.5 points worse
Instead of a battle between the 2024 offensive rookie of the year and the dual threat quarterback who led the Colts to a 7-1 start last fall, the fine people of London were treated to Athan Kaliakmanis and a version of Jones that harkened back to his lost, vaguely hilarious days as a New York Giant.
DAFE!!!
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 4, 2026
📺 #INDvsWAS @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/bqPO1Rm5fv
A more serious government would have considered this an act of aggression. Fortunately, the people of the United Kingdom were weaned on 2010s Jacksonville Jaguars games and instead enjoyed Week 4 much like the few fortunate enough to see Cats at a theater that served alcohol. Unfortunately for the Colts, there is not enough alcohol in the state of Indiana to pretend this did not happen:
another takeaway
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 4, 2026
📺 #INDvsWAS @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/SB6LNaqiCh
Through three weeks the Washington Commanders had fielded a bottom five pass defense. Then they faced Jones, who needed 34 passes to throw for 143 yards. Only five of those attempts traveled more than eight yards downfield. Since one of those was the back-footed underthrow seen above, that was probably a good thing.
Through four games, Jones has only thrown deep 3.8 percent of the time -- lowest in the league and significantly behind second-to-last-place Cam Ward at five percent. Alec Pierce's absence has played a role, undoubtedly, as does a lineup filled with shorter range targets meant to thrive in the space his downfield targets create.
Josh Downs has picked up some of that slack -- his average target has risen to a career-high 9.7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- but on Sunday he had just 16 receiving yards across 30 routes run. Keenan Allen's 2.4 yards of separation per target are a career low. Tyler Warren's air yards per target are down from 5.5 as a rookie to just 2.2 in 2026.
The Colts have to figure out if Jones is the cause of this mess or merely a symptom of an offense that truly couldn't afford to lose its newest highest paid receiver after trading the former highest paid receiver, Michael Pittman, to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Indianapolis has supported him with the same play-action heavy offense that boosted him in 2025. But with Jonathan Taylor receding from Superman levels, he's had much less success. His average target distance has plummeted and, while it's early, he looks like a less mobile version of the guy who was run out of New York (after finessing a significant contract extension. Hmmmmm).
2. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals
- 2025 EPA/game: -2.2
- Week 4 EPA: –24.3
- Difference: 22.1 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: 3.5 percent
- Week 4 CPOE: 8.3 percent
- Difference: 4.8 points better
Want to see what -9.5 expected points added looks like?
BANKS CLOSED ON SUNDAYS
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 4, 2026
📺: CBS/Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/Adh3ijHUwo
Brissett racked up -12.3 EPA over the final four snaps of the game after driving to the New York Giants' four-yard line with seconds to play in a 30-24 game. Three incompletions and a pick-six took Arizona's win probability from 44 percent to zero, reminding us all why the journeyman is an acceptable fill-in but not a full-time answer.
In the first three quarters of 2026 games, Brissett's 0.070 EPA per dropback ranks 17th in the NFL -- not great, but ahead of players like Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold. In the fourth quarter that's cut nearly in half to 0.036 EPA -- 24th-best. This isn't new -- and it's actually a modest improvement. Across 2024 and 2025, his -0.050 EPA ranked 46th out of 59 quarterbacks to play at least 50 snaps in the fourth quarter and overtime.
This is the curse of "good enough." Granted, it's one that's come with more than $83 million in career earnings. It's also what makes Brissett an asset for a covertly tanking team. The journeyman will keep things close and entertain fans. Eventually, however, he's going to slip up late, locking in the losses that build a bridge to his replacement.
1. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins
- 2025 EPA/game: 14.3
- Week 4 EPA: –11.7
- Difference: 26 points worse
- 2025 CPOE: 14.6 percent
- Week 4 CPOE: -12 percent
- Difference: 26.6 points worse
Willis escaped this list in Week 1 thanks to a meager sample size, then played inoffensively in Weeks 2 and 3 to stay off it. His 85-yard performance while barely completing more than half his passes in Minnesota, however, could not be ignored.
Plucked from the limited use run-pass options of the Green Bay Packers and surrounded by subpar and unproven talent, Willis has struggled. The Vikings, as Brian Flores is wont to do, blitzed on two-thirds of Miami's dropbacks, generating pressure on nearly half his snaps. That forced the young veteran to scramble repeatedly; his 3.48 seconds average from snap to throw was highest in the league in Week 4 and his highest mark of the season.
This would be a problem for any quarterback. Willis worked deftly from a crowded pocket last season, recording a 144.2 passer rating and more than 12 yards per attempt in four games in Green Bay -- but that was only across 13 snaps (three sacks, seven completions and 104 net yards). This year he's completed less than 46 percent of his passes when pressured. Teams are getting used to him, certainly, but his top receivers are Malik Washington, Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas (who missed the last two weeks due to injury). That's not a lineup filled with trustworthy scramble drill performers.
.@UnoErra picks up another one!
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 4, 2026
📺: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/NT8qg6PtdE
Willis attempted to sling his team back into a rockfight of a game with the time and space created with scrambles. The combination of Flores' pod-of-angry-orcas blitzes and limited established receiving help meant that while nine of his 17 passes traveled at least 10 yards downfield, only two were completed.
The Dolphins have two objectives for Willis this fall. Either he steps up and shows he can be a franchise quarterback for the youngest team in the NFL, or he fades, delivers a top three 2027 NFL Draft pick and settles into a high value backup role for whomever is drafted next spring. He's trending toward the latter, but Miami isn't giving him much room to succeed.
Still too-early FTW Gross QB rankings after Week 4
1. Drake Maye, New England Patriots: 18 points
2 Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts: 16
3. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: 14
t-4. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 12
t-4. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 12
6. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: 11
t-7. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: 10
t-7. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins: 10
9. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals: 8
10. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: 7
t-11. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 2
t-11. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 2
t-13. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: 1
t-13. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 1
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Justin Herbert's implosion, Eagles' failures and the Week 4 Gross QB ranks
