The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles are moving in different directions. Our expert panel believes they'll keep charting that course -- at least for Week 6.
The Eagles return home after a trip to London, nursing an offense that was underwhelming even before injuries took Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith off the field. Philadelphia is staring down a four-game losing streak with an inconsistent Carolina Panthers team headed north fresh off their bye. With unimaginative playcalling proliferating through Nick Sirianni's offense, a loss at the Linc could bring the boo-birds flocking to the Eagles' chagrin.
The Packers had their doors blown off in primetime in Week 3, but recovered to beat an underwhelming Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 and
then the Tyson Bagent-led (for three-plus quarters) Chicago Bears. Another flawed opponent waits in the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has one of the few defenses less trustworthy than Chicago's. Another huge Jordan Love performance could stake Green Bay's claim as a postseason heartbreaker (for its own fans, but still).
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Wajih AlBaroudi and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 6 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Indianapolis Colts (-7) over the Tennessee Titans
I've already dunked you out of your survivor pool and into the slop reserved for the losers -- twice. This means the Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders are all off the board over the first five weeks of the season. Fortunately, we've still got two glaring "PICK AGAINST" teams in the league.
With the Miami Dolphins off, that duty falls to the Titans. The Colts are down bad early in 2026 as Daniel Jones works his way back to full strength. They aren't down *this* bad... right?
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 3-2
Hardest favorite to back: Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers is having a tidy revival, throwing three touchdown passes in each of his last three games. Even better, he did it without Michael Pittman or Roman Wilson in the lineup for Week 5. But the Steelers aren't in the circle of trust yet...
Why I like this pick:
Rodgers is pressure averse and has defaulted to a quick-hit offense, but the Buccaneers are limited up front. While Tampa Bay has a top five defense, Todd Bowles' team also has a bottom-four pressure rate despitea top-three blitz rate. If you send extra rushers at a four-time MVP and miss, he's going to carve you up even at 42 years old.
I am enjoying the Jalon Daniels rise, but I fear it will end like similar stories in recent years -- Tommy DeVito, Nick Mullens, etc. His 4.1 air yards per pass were the lowest in Week 5 (just ahead of, coincidentally, Aaron Rodgers, who was also at 4.1). His presence and the Bucs' lack of explosive plays from their wideouts suggest the team can flatten its defense to stretch sideline-to-sideline in the short/intermediate range on passing downs and dare the former Kansas star to beat Pittsburgh downfield.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Buccaneers have fielded a top five defense and just shut down an explosive Dallas Cowboys offense. Pittsburgh's Week 5 win was carried by big plays from Warren, but now he faces a defense that ranks fifth in expected points added (EPA) allowed on rushing plays and is giving up only 3.3 yards per carry (second-best in the NFL).
Bucky Irving carried Tampa in Week 5 and now gets to face a below-average run defense. He had 175 yards from scrimmage last week despite facing stacked boxes in one-third of his handoffs. He has the chops to do this again.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 4-1
Upset pick of the week: Atlanta Falcons (+3) over the Chicago Bears
Yes, Caleb Williams' return concerns me. As does a very angry Bears team coming off a blowout loss against their arch rival. Even so, I've liked what I've seen enough from Atlanta to commit a cardinal sin; placing my faith in the Falcons.
But if Michael Penix Jr. can't play and three hours of Tua Tagovailoa are foisted upon us, scratch this pick. My backup upset for Week 6? The Carolina Panthers, fresh off a bye, against a spiraling (and returning from London) Philadelphia Eagles.
Why I like this pick:
Michael Penix is one of the league's best quarterbacks from a clean pocket and a disaster from a crowded one. The Bears, even against the Packers depleted offensive line, pressured Jordan Love 35 percent of the time, which would be solid enough if it didn't come with a 35 percent blitz rate. Sending extra defenders at Penix means dump-offs to Kyle Pitts and, importantly, Bijan Robinson -- the last guy you want to face one-on-one in the open field.
Atlanta's defense has rounded back into form despite missing several young key contributors. Unless Chicago finally jump-starts Colston Loveland, the Falcons have the secondary talent to limit big plays downfield. That unit ranks seventh in EPA allowed per snap. The Bears rank 20th and are especially vulnerable against the run -- which, again, features the most explosive back in football.
We also saw Chicago get torched repeatedly downfield in Green Bay. Now that unit has to corral one of the best "[expletive] it, he's down there somewhere" wideouts in the game in Drake London.
Why I don't like this pick:
Atlanta's blocking hasn't been great, and a panicky Penix isn't going to be calmer in the pocket while nursing a rib injury. Caleb Williams has heard nothing but chatter since leaving Week 3 with a hamstring strain and has a penchant for coming through when it means the most to him. The Falcons' defense has been overachieving, and while that may be sustainable, this would be right around the time opposing coordinators start cracking them if not.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-4
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks, Week 6: More Eagles misery and a true Packers revival?
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