I knew the Week 4 schedule would be brutal coming in. I didn't realize I'd lose almost all my coin flip games as the NFL's parity machine spun onward.
Fortunately the rest of our staff picked up my slack. Now we're back with another tricky week, a return to London and what should be a validating first win for a Houston Texans team whose defense has inexplicably fallen to pieces.
Welcome back to For The Win's straight-up, moneyline NFL picks column. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. The two seasons that followed? Ehhhhh, we don't like to talk about that. But I'm back and hopeful I'll either be good enough to rejoin the top 25 or, barring that, be so destructively bad you're left with no choice but to fade my picks all
the way to prosperity.
Joining me for 2026 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Wajih AlBaroudi, who is off this week, and Jeff Smith) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski and Andrew Joseph). Here are our Week 5 picks.
and:
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) .jpg you can click to expand:
Let's break out three games to talk about.
Survivor pick of the week: Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over the Miami Dolphins
The Bengals have a wonderful opportunity to snap a two-game losing streak, and Miami is the perfect team to face if you don't have your two Pro Bowl wide receivers in the lineup due to injury. The Dolphins have a bottom-five defense through four games. Joe Burrow could use a feast day.
- Last week: 1-0
- Season to date: 2-2
Hardest favorite to back: New England Patriots (-3.5) over the Las Vegas Raiders
Drake Maye got on track last week, maximizing his receiving corps and getting big returns from Romeo Doubs and, wildly, Efton Chism III (NOBODY BEATS THE CHIZ!). The Raiders were arguably one special teams fumble away from 4-0 and a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Neither side is especially trustworthy. Let's dig in a bit more.
Why I like this pick:
Maye roared back to life in Buffalo, using his legs to create plays rather than forcing throws into coverage from the pocket. He and Doubs were on the same page for these scramble drills, creating the downfield rhythm that unclogged the offense.
The Patriots have given up the league's second-fewest yards to tight ends this season and cut off Dalton Kincaid last week. That's bad news for a Raiders offense that leans heavily on Kirk Cousins' favorite target: his tight ends. Cousins' low-impact, low-risk passing game has a shelf life, and the tape is building on what he's doing right -- giving New England the data necessary to stop it.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Patriots have given up a ton of pressure without being blitzed especially often. Maxx Crosby's presence means Las Vegas will be able to create havoc in the pocket without sacrificing a QB spy to cut off the runs that were vital to his Week 4 performance.
The Raiders have a defense that looked elite in the first three weeks before cracking against the Kansas City Chiefs -- a reasonable slip. The Patriots have a good defense that may be without top corner Christian Gonzalez again. After getting roasted by Keon Coleman last week, Las Vegas could maximize returns from its underwhelming receiving corps. The Patriots' run defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed and now faces a dynamite young tailback combination of Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington, who could rack up over 150 rushing yards between them.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 3-1
Upset pick of the week: Cleveland Browns (+2.5) over the New York Jets
Let's start here. The Deshaun Watson redemption arc is gross. This is not a man devastated by injury. This is a man whose behavior an NFL investigation deemed "predatory." Cleveland fans turned on him not just because of his poor play (and it was extremely poor) but for his lack of accountability and tone deaf response to just about everything. He's benefitted from a small sample size and a lack of film for defensive coordinators to study -- not just from him, but the young playmakers around him.
A good defense can put him back in stasis. Fortunately for Cleveland, the New York Jets do not have a good defense.
Why I like this pick:
The Browns have a genuinely exciting young core. Denzel Boston has been a dynamic downfield threat. Harold Fannin Jr. and KC Concepcion have tremendous run-after-catch chops. Even if Watson is having a tough day he has talent around him that can boost his offense.
The Jets will likely be without Breece Hall and Adonai Mitchell, limiting their playmaking around Geno Smith. Smith himself took a significant step backward last week, completing only two passes that traveled more than seven yards downfield despite facing a stabilizing, but still flawed, Chicago Bears defense.
Why I don't like this pick:
The Browns have one of the league's worst run offenses, which means Aaron Glenn won't have to worry about stacking the box and can drop seven into coverage repeatedly to clog Cleveland's passing lanes. Cleveland also has a soundly below average run defense, so there's a chance Braelon Allen can turn this game into a slog at home.
- Last week: 0-1
- Season to date: 1-3
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 5: Patriots hold serve, Browns keep rolling?
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