The Oregon Ducks are flying to Champaign for the first time in 33 years this Saturday to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini for a battle between two backup quarterbacks. However, not all backup quarterbacks are created equal, and Illinois might be at a distinct disadvantage in this matchup, despite being at home.
Dante Moore still isn't ready to return for the Ducks while he recovers from a concussion he suffered nearly a month ago at USC, leaving Dylan Raiola or Brock Thomas to take over under center for the third week in a row. The two veterans have had bright moments in the fourth quarter of the past two games, but the Ducks' offense as a whole has taken a significant step back.
Illinois is rolling with a backup quarterback as well after
Katin Houser went down with a broken left hand, but the Illini's offense has been solid all season long. Michael Clayton II even led the Illini to an overtime victory as he entered in relief of Houser against Michigan State.
Illinois had the week off to prepare Clayton for the starting role, while Oregon staged a fourth-quarter comeback against Nebraska to escape with a late-night 17-14 victory. There is some mystery as to how the Illinois offense will look with Clayton making his first career start against an Oregon defense that has looked like the stout unit many expected coming into the season. Illinois' defense has been awful, so conversely, it could be an opportunity for the Ducks' offense to set things right.
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday afternoon in the first Midwest trip of the season for the Ducks against the Fighting Illini.
Dylan Raiola vs. Michael Clayton II
Edge: Oregon
Raiola has had his struggles, but his experience and ability to push the ball downfield against Illinois' poor secondary gives Oregon a clear advantage under center. Clayton, to his credit, looked great in relief against Michigan State, and he is a pocket passer who doesn't run much like Raiola. But Raiola seemed to get some confidence back last week against Nebraska, and it's hard to see a freshman quarterback having much success in his first start against an Oregon defense that is rolling right now.
Oregon RBs vs. Illinois RBs
Edge: Oregon
Illinois is missing a key piece in Ca'Lil Valentine, who is down for the season with an injury, but Aidan Laughery has established himself as the lead back in the offense. He is up to 391 yards rushing this season and was featured more as a pass catcher out of the backfield against Michigan State, so he isn't someone to ignore. Still, although Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. haven't had gaping holes to run through this season, they are the better duo in this game, and I trust them to run through Illinois' front seven. This is a homecoming game for Hill, so I expect him to get a heavy dose of touches this week, particularly in the passing game.
Brandon Smith is also worth keeping an eye out for this week for Oregon. He picked up a bunch of carries in the fourth quarter against Nebraska and looked good, so his role could be increasing.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. Illinois Pass Catchers
Edge: Oregon
Given the state of Oregon's receiving room, this is closer than some might expect. Collin Dixon and Hudson Clement are quietly among the best receiving duos in the Big Ten. Dixon is fourth in the conference with 47 catches for 608 yards and nine touchdowns, while Clement has been a steady contributor with 27 grabs for 404 yards and one score. They will be tough to defend on the perimeter, so it will be interesting to see how Oregon plans to defend them. I'm still going to give Oregon the slight edge here because of the overall talent and depth in the room. Dakorien Moore has been tremendous this season, as has Jamari Johnson when given opportunities. Freshmen will be called upon in this game without Evan Stewart available, and Messiah Hampton and Jalen Lott have appeared to be up to the task so far. Very close, but I'll lean with the Ducks.
Oregon Defense vs. Illinois Defense
Edge: Oregon
This one is a slam dunk in Oregon's favor. Illinois fired defensive coordinator Bobby Hauck after a loss to Ohio State, and things have not gotten much better with Roger Cooper calling plays. The Illini have been decent against the run, but offenses have taken whatever they've wanted from the Illini through the air. Meanwhile, Oregon's defensive line has developed into a terror lately and is keeping teams out of the end zone, often setting up the offense in good field position. The Ducks' defense is rolling right now, so this is an easy pick.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When Illinois Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Oregon
Both teams have had a disappointing season, albeit with much different expectations coming in, but Oregon has more upside on offense and the clear-cut better defense loaded with talented players flying around. Illinois will test Oregon's secondary in this game with Dixon and Clement, but like Oregon's offense in recent weeks, there might be limitations to what the Illini can do on offense while functioning with a backup quarterback.
The Ducks should be able to get pressure on Clayton and force the Illini to pivot to the run game, and given how Jerry Mixon, Devon Jackson and the linebackers have been flying around lately, that's an area I feel good about for the Ducks. We saw last week how the running lanes opened up for the Oregon offense when Raiola entered the game, and there was a passing threat. Illinois has been decent against the run, so that will be the big matchup to watch for Oregon's offensive line, seeing what unit rolls out there in Champaign and if they can get some push up front.
Oregon's offense has enough talent to dominate this game, provided it gets a half-decent performance from Raiola at quarterback. The young wideouts that are expected to lead the offense should have a field day against this Illinois secondary, and the running game could finally pop on the road. Champaign can be a tough place to play, but Oregon has the edge on the road in this matchup.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for Oregon Ducks vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
