Complete and utter chaos took place in the college football world on Saturday, with five of the top seven AP Top 25 teams suffering losses, and eight of the top 25 teams in the nation losing. While the Oregon Ducks were fortunately not one of those top-25 teams to lose, they did see their ranking go down a spot in the ESPN Football Power Index after a 17-14 comeback win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Oregon stayed put at No. 25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll after the win, but they did see some of their season-long probability numbers go up, according to the FPI, including chances to win the Big Ten Conference, make the College Football Playoff, and ultimately make the national championship game.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see how Oregon's
season plays out, considering the concerns that remain at the quarterback position and the overall stagnation of the offense that we've seen over the past two weeks. However, there's certainly a path to the postseason if they can figure some things out on that side of the ball.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 77.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 78.0%
Analysis: Can Oregon find a way to win on the road next week, and has the QB situation improved at all? That's the major question right now, given Dante Moore's status and what we've seen lately. There should be no concern that Oregon's defense can get the job done, but the offense will need to put up 14-17 points and win on the road.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 76.9%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 75.8%
Analysis: Northwestern looked human for arguably the first time this year, struggling to put away a Michigan State team that is near the bottom of our Big Ten Power Rankings. While they still have a very good offense under Chip Kelly, I think it's the defense that Oregon looks at and feels confident about, seeing as the Ducks' defense should be able to hold up well against the Wildcats.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 16.2%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 17.0%
Analysis: Oregon's win percentage dropped here, but it's fair to wonder what the numbers would look like if QB Julian Sayin is confirmed out with an apparent arm injury suffered on Saturday vs. Indiana. Head coach Ryan Day said after the game that Sayin is expected to miss a few weeks going forward, which would put his status against the Ducks into doubt. If he can't go when Oregon comes to town, this game suddenly became much more winnable.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 81.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 82.6%
Analysis: It appears that the Bryce Underwood era has come to an end for the Wolverines, and where the offense goes from here is anyone's guess. While this closing stretch looked like potentially the toughest for the Ducks at the start of the year, the sting has been taken out a bit thanks to how these opponents have performed thus far.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 84.1%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.3%
Analysis: All preseason, this has been billed as the "trap game" for Oregon, with it coming on a short week, and played between games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. However, the Spartans have been very uninspiring so far this year, so I don't think the Ducks should have much of a problem.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 88.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 90.3%
Analysis: Washington got a nice win over Purdue this past week and started to look like they had a little bit of juice, but it remains to be seen what this offense can produce over the course of the season, with some uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position. Ultimately, it feels as if the Ducks will be favored by double digits here in a rivalry game where they will have no issue creating juice, regardless of the stakes.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 3.1%
Previous FPI %: 4.2%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 5.3%
Previous FPI %: 3.9%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 12.7%
Previous FPI %: 9.6%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 1.4%
Previous FPI %: 0.9%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 0.6%
Previous FPI %: 0.4%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks move down in ESPN FPI ranking despite victory
