It's been a week filled with change for the Oregon Ducks, and although they might not be in the hunt for the College Football Playoff anymore, Saturday's game at home remains a proving ground for what may be in store for the rest of the season.
No. 20-ranked Northwestern rolls into Autzen Stadium for a chilly Halloween matchup with an offense that should give the Ducks plenty of scares, led by former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly, with whom the Ducks might be dreaming of a reunion in the offseason. A potent rushing attack with a dynamic quarterback running the show, it sure does sound like an old-school Oregon offense.
Yet, the Ducks will need to find a way to slow down the Wildcats and generate some offensive firepower of their own after Dan Lanning
began the week of preparation by shifting gears, parting ways with longtime assistant and first-year offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. Oregon's offense has been miserable since Dante Moore went down. Since the star quarterback isn't going to rescue the Ducks this season, it's on Dylan Raiola and Oregon's talented group of playmakers to even the odds.
Let's take a look at three keys to help Oregon get back on track with a Halloween victory over Northwestern.
Contain Chiles & Northwestern's Ground Attack
This is a bit of a 2-for-1 deal here, but Aidan Chiles is such a dangerous player in the option game because of his size and running ability. It has worked this season because of Northwestern's three-headed backfield with Caleb Komolafe, Joseph Himon II and Gavin Sawchuk, and Kelly's adaptation of the Wing-T offense.
Tons of misdirection will make Oregon's discipline on the edge and at linebacker critical. If edge rushers get too far upfield, the Wildcats will take advantage. If the linebackers focus on the wrong set of keys, the ball is going the other way. Chiles has been lethal this season on RPO plays and off play-action, often throwing on the run and extending plays with his legs. The Ducks will need to cage him in and make him play from the pocket and limit the effectiveness of Northwestern's wide-split formations.
Northwestern has run the ball for 204.6 yards per game this season, which ranks 23rd-best in the country. It's the focal point of the offense and is what drives the passing game. Kelly is going to pull all of his tricks out of the bag in hopes of securing a win at Autzen Stadium for the first time since he stood on the opposite sideline, but if the Ducks are disciplined and can force the Wildcats to make Chiles drop back and take on the Oregon secondary, that's the best the Ducks' defense could ask for.
Sustain Drives
It's been bad for most of the season, but the Ducks have been relying on Bailey Ettridge to flip the field way too often lately. Oregon was averaging just 24 yards per drive against Power 4 opponents this season heading into the Illinois game, and that number didn't get much better in the loss. Oregon had seven drives of four plays or less against Illinois and was just 4-for-15 on third down.
Third down has been a massive issue this season for the Ducks to sustain drives, especially early in the game. The Ducks are converting at a 35% clip on the money down this season, but the Northwestern defense has allowed teams to convert 37.7% of the time on third down, so there is an opportunity to grow this week.
A huge portion of Oregon's offense depends on the play of Raiola under center, as well as Jay Johnson calling the plays this week, but the Ducks simply need to extend drives and tire defenses out. Whether it's on the ground with Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordon Davison or actually throwing a pass on a route that is beyond the sticks, the Ducks have to make a better effort on third down. Otherwise, the Northwestern run game is going to take over and run the Oregon defense into the ground.
Establish a New Identity
Building off the struggles on third down, Oregon's offense has to come out early on and set the tone. If Oregon wins the coin toss, they should take the ball. Let the offense set the tone and show just what exactly is changing after firing Mehringer at the beginning of the week.
The Ducks have arguably the nation's best group of receivers, led by Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart and Jamari Johnson, and aided by freshmen standouts Messiah Hampton and Jalen Lott. All of those guys can stretch the field. All of those guys can win a jump ball in single coverage. Yet, Oregon has spent much of the season scheming to set up blocks out wide and throw the ball horizontally, leaving very little to the quarterback and leading to a lack of explosive plays.
If Northwestern stacks the box, the Ducks have to show some aggression. Even if it results in incompletions, Oregon needs to make Northwestern respect its ability to throw the ball downfield and the talent of the wideouts who can go get the ball. The Wildcats have been susceptible to big plays this season on defense, by air and on the ground. Moore and Stewart can stretch the field out wide, and Johnson has had several highlights running the seam route throughout his career.
No, this isn't a video game where Jay Johnson can call four verticals every down, but the Ducks need to break their screen-pass tendencies, or their desire to only let Raiola make one read and throw. That's what has led to issues later in games as pressure builds in the backfield and Raiola is simply off the mark. Trust your receivers to win, because they absolutely can. And if they do, it will open up other parts of the offense to success.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Keys to victory for the Oregon Ducks vs. Northwestern Wildcats
