The stakes are different from preseason expectations, but not any lower. Playoff eligibility and Big Ten bragging rights are on the line between two of the premier programs in the conference as the No. 23 Oregon Ducks head on the road this week to take on the No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Sweeping changes to Oregon's offensive game plan and staff led to a second-half rally to knock off Northwestern in Eugene last week with a 34-26 win. The Ducks threw the ball downfield and ran the ball efficiently with several different backs, and finally, Oregon's offense looked like it had been reborn.
Meanwhile, Ohio State stumbled on the road coming off a bye and starting a freshman quarterback for the first time, falling 30-18 on the road against USC. While
the offense wasn't in its usual explosive form, it was the defense that surprised many, as the Trojans were more physical than the Buckeyes and won the line of scrimmage from whistle to whistle.
The Ducks and Buckeyes have had some battles over the years, typically with a Rose Bowl or even a national championship on the line, but Oregon has won two of the last three matchups, including the most recent meeting in Columbus in 2021 as underdogs. Heading back to The Buckeye State for the first time since, the Ducks are underdogs once again, but they might hold the momentum in a clash of rosters rich with blue-chip recruiting talent.
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday afternoon for the Ducks on the road against the Buckeyes.
Dylan Raiola vs. Luke Fahey
Edge: Oregon
What a turn of events. If we asked this question a week ago, it would be much harder to pick Dylan Raiola. But the Nebraska transfer had his best day as a Duck last week, throwing for 336 yards and three scores, and he rides into the matchup on a high. Luke Fahey actually played well against USC, but he was under pressure all night long, and the Ohio State offense is still more limited without Julian Sayin. He has the best target to throw to in this game, but I do think Raiola's recent success in Oregon's more aggressive offense makes him the safer pick here.
Also, Raiola has played at Ohio Stadium before. He took the Cornhuskers into Columbus as a freshman and nearly knocked off the Buckeyes in a late-October matchup, but he threw an interception on the final drive while trying to win the game. This could be another redemption spot.
Oregon RBs vs. Ohio State RBs
Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State is missing Ja'Kobi Jackson, who is missing time after having surgery, but the Buckeyes still have a pair of great backs in Bo Jackson and Isaiah West. Jackson is the one to watch here, coming off a 121-yard day against the Trojans, and he has a great combination of shiftiness and power, like Jordon Davison. Unfortunately, the Ducks will be without Davison this week after he suffered an injury against Northwestern. If Davison were available, I would probably lean in Oregon's favor here. Dierre Hill Jr. will need to step up, but the Ducks do seem to have something promising in freshman Brandon Smith, who broke out last week. Shining against Northwestern is different than doing so against Ohio State, however, so while there is plenty of reason to be confident in Oregon's run game this week without Davison, the Buckeyes do have the 15th-best run defense in the country.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. Ohio State Pass Catchers
Edge: Slightly Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith could win this category alone for the Buckeyes. Of the numbers listed above, Smith accounts for 62 catches, 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns. He does it all, and nobody has really been able to stop him. Devin McCuin is a tough cover as well, as he can move around the formation a bit, and Chris Henry Jr. is a massive freshman target that has been used almost exclusively for big plays this season. Dakorien Moore has been fabulous this season, Evan Stewart torched the Buckeyes when he last met them in 2024, and Jamari Johnson is a field stretcher from the tight end spot, so this was a tough call, but Smith's impact on a defense is undeniable.
However, Oregon might get star wideout Jeremiah McClellan back this weekend, as he was listed as probable on the first Big Ten availability report on Wednesday. McClellan hurt his foot in pregame warmups on Sept. 18 against Portland State and has not played since. If he winds up returning this week, that would be a massive get for Oregon's offense in the vertical passing game, and makes this category even more of a toss-up.
Oregon Defense vs. Ohio State Defense
Edge: Oregon
The numbers would support Ohio State's defense is this spot, and that's a fair argument, but we just saw the Buckeyes get pushed around by USC, while the Oregon defense has been pretty solid for the past several weeks after a slow start to the season. Now, Oregon is the one that has to defend Smith. Still, I think the Ducks' pass rush is a big separator here, as the edges and interior rush have flourished lately and could have a big impact against Ohio State's struggling offensive line and young quarterback. The Ducks have also been more aggressive at forcing turnovers through the air, and I do think they could get their hands on a pass this Saturday.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When Ohio State Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Ohio State
Oregon clearly has a better chance to win this game than it appeared even a week ago. However, a lot of this game depends on which version of Raiola shows up on Saturday, and so far, the only consistent thing about Raiola this season has been his inconsistency. He still isn't mechanically sound or playing mistake-free, but his willingness to chuck the ball downfield last week and do so accurately was a welcome sight.
The Ducks have faced more fearsome pass rushes than Ohio State's this season, but I do think the Buckeyes can force Raiola into a turnover or two that will have Oregon playing catch-up throughout. The Ducks should be able to force Fahey into similar mistakes, but Smith is the biggest factor in this game. Oregon has a better secondary to defend Smith than they did in 2024, but if the Ducks overcompensate, Fahey could just as easily find one of Ohio State's other dangerous weapons.
The trench battle is worth watching, as Oregon seems to have found momentum lately on both sides of the ball, whereas the Buckeyes were bullied last week and have missed more tackles than usual. Still, I lean with Ohio State here because Oregon hasn't proven it can avoid the self-inflicted errors this season, even in a win last week. Ohio State is better suited to capitalize on miscues, so I will slightly give the edge to the Buckeyes in the matchup.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
