It's not often that the Oregon Ducks are facing a make-or-break game in September, but that's the situation the Ducks have on the road this weekend in Los Angeles, with the undefeated USC Trojans facing a similar bout of desperation.
After an early loss, Oregon's postseason hopes are on life support, while USC's inability to surpass Oregon in recent years and make the College Football Playoff has been magnified, leading to an all-or-nothing game for the Trojans as well.
The expectation is plenty of points and fireworks at the Coliseum on Saturday, as both defenses are still searching for answers. The Ducks were ripped apart on the road against Oklahoma State, by air or on the ground, while the Trojans went shot for shot with lowly Rutgers last
week. It's setting up to be a rivalry matchup where offenses thrive, but the first big stop might provide enough of an edge to win the game.
Oregon is a slim road favorite and is seeking a fifth straight win over USC. Mutual recruiting targets for both programs will be in attendance, so there are stakes beyond the field of play as well. The Ducks saw the ball go through the hoop often against Portland State, so there is confidence that the offense will show up on the road this time, especially if tight end Jamari Johnson returns to the field.
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday night in a rivalry matchup with everything on the line.
Dante Moore vs. Jayden Maiava
Edge: USC
While Dante Moore might have a higher ceiling as a pro prospect, Jayden Maiava has simply been tremendous to start the season, so I'll give the Trojans the edge here. Maiava has distributed like a point guard and been able to spread the ball to multiple receivers with ease, while making good decisions. Moore has distributed well too, but he has been flustered by different looks he saw against Oklahoma State, and the offensive line at Oregon hasn't protected him. Maiava does have an extra game under his belt this season, but he leads the nation in passing yards and touchdowns. I trust Maiava's ability to stay clean and deliver an on-target and on-time ball more often than Moore, but this is still a very close matchup.
Oregon RBs vs. USC RBs
Edge: Oregon
Oregon hasn't run the ball to the best of its ability this season, but I still trust Jordon Davison in short-yardage situations more than almost any back in the Big Ten, and Dierre Hill Jr. is a great change-of-pace back out of the backfield on third down with his receiving ability. There is an even split in the Ducks' backfield, whereas King Miller has taken a much bigger share of USC's carries, and for good reason. He's topped 100 yards on the ground in the last two games. However, neither back has much upside in the passing game, and although Oregon's offensive line and the running game as a whole have been poor this season, I do like the matchup for the Ducks on the ground and the ability to move the chains in short-yardage spots.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. USC Pass Catchers
Edge: Oregon
Both sides are down key targets. Oregon will be without Jeremiah McClellan, who broke his foot pregame against Portland State, and potentially Johnson if he can't go. USC is likely to be without star freshman Trent Mosley, who leads the Trojans with four touchdowns, and has already ruled wideout Corey Simms out for the contest. This is the first big game for some of USC's top targets, which at the moment are freshmen Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Mark Bowman. Tanook Hines roasted the Ducks last season, but he's still rounding into form this year. Oregon's combination of experience and ability to create yards after the catch is the difference here. Dakorien Moore has been off to a great start this season, and Evan Stewart is still a vertical threat. Even without McClellan, freshman Messiah Hampton has looked up to the task this season. I'll take the Ducks out wide.
Oregon Defense vs. USC Defense
Edge: Oregon
Let's be honest: neither defense has been all that great this year. Oregon hasn't been able to create as much pressure as many thought they would, returning a veteran defensive line, and the secondary was ripped apart by Oklahoma State. USC was just torched by Rutgers, and they also had some trouble at home against Louisiana. Based on what's been showcased this season, I trust USC's pass rush more, especially against Oregon's offensive line, but I think the Ducks have better playmakers at linebacker and in the secondary. If this game features lots of passing and points, as we expect, it could come down to which set of corners is willing to play physically at the line of scrimmage and win. Brandon Finney had a tough time in this game last year, but I think this is a game where he and the Ducks' secondary can make enough plays down the stretch and at the line of scrimmage to win. USC's defense also can wear out faster, so if Oregon's offense can stay on the field in the first half, the fourth quarter could really become a grind for the Trojans.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When USC Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Oregon
This is tough. USC has the hotter quarterback and the benefit of playing at home, but I do think Oregon's roster is better all-around and well-suited to win in a shootout if the offense can start quickly. The Ducks have already faced adversity this season and are very much playing with their backs against the wall. USC has plenty on the line as well, including recruiting prospects in the area and the temperature of Lincoln Riley's seat as head coach.
I just don't think Oregon's offense makes the same mistakes twice. There was no rhythm or backup plan against Oklahoma State. There has to be one this time around. The USC pass rush can get home on Moore, so the Ducks need to execute in the running game and with quick passes to neutralize that threat. That should open the passing game downfield for Moore and Oregon's receivers.
Defensively, the Ducks will likely be tested vertically again, but Oregon's talent in the secondary is so deep, I think there is a chance the Ducks can force a turnover or two and take advantage of a short field to have an edge late. In a game with potential for offensive fireworks, it's the defenses that will be under the microscope, and I think Oregon's is just a little bit better and has already been challenged.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for No. 20 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 USC Trojans
