A return to Autzen Stadium on Halloween is sure to bring out some scares for the Oregon Ducks. The offense has been a nightmare for weeks, and the Ducks finally made a change this week by letting go of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer. But is that enough to turn things around with a ranked opponent coming to town?
The Northwestern Wildcats' defense has been very consistent this season, both in terms of its production and plan of attack. The Wildcats have an aggressive front seven and are determined to not give up big plays in the secondary. It sounds straightforward, and it has led to success this season, but there might be some opportunities for the Ducks to take advantage of.
Dylan Raiola is expected to continue to be the starting quarterback
for Oregon this week, and the Wildcats will definitely try to get some pressure on the Nebraska transfer again this week. However, the Ducks could have opportunities to win on the ground behind a new and improved offensive line, which had success running the ball last week on the road against Illinois. When Northwestern has gone on the road this season, they have occasionally struggled to stop the run.
Let's take a look at what Northwestern does on defense schematically, who to look out for, and what the Ducks might be able to do to put points on the board.
What does Northwestern do well on defense?
The Wildcats change the picture occasionally, but they primarily operate out of a 4-2-5 defense with an aggressive set of linebackers. Kobie McKenzie and Braydon Brus play fast downhill and are sound tacklers against the run. Head coach David Braun and defensive coordinator Tim McGarigle work in tandem to run the defense, and they are known for aggressive blitzes that generate pressure, although not always translating into sacks.
Northwestern also has a very experienced secondary and often sits with two high safeties and plays quarters defense. They have an opportunistic secondary that can create turnovers and force offenses into long-distance situations on third down, leading to a 37.2% win rate on third downs.
Taking away deep passes is a priority, which makes sense as to why the Wildcats sit in a quarters defense. They force offenses to take what they can get underneath, but given Oregon's lack of passing success, they could play closer to the box this week. No matter how they play in the open field, Northwestern is great at bending and not breaking, ranking sixth in the nation with a 68.8% conversion rate in the red zone.
Players to Know
S Robert Fitzgerald
The senior safety was a second-team All-Big Ten selection last season, and he's only improved this season with Northwestern. Robert Fitzgerald is the veteran leader of the Wildcats' defense, totaling 49 tackles, two interceptions, two deflections and a fumble recovery in five games this season. Fitzgerald had a pick-six in his last game against Ball State, but missed Northwestern's games against Michigan State and Rutgers, and the defense suffered as a result. If Fitzgerald returns this week, he is a dangerous player that the Ducks need to account for.
LB Braydon Brus
Brus leads the Wildcats this season with 62 tackles and four sacks, as well as one interception and a fumble recovery. Brus can play inside and rush off the edge as a linebacker and is an athletic player in the middle of the defense that can cover a lot of ground. He's a sound tackler as well and has been a key to Northwestern's success against the run this season.
CB Ore Adeyi
The Wildcats don't allow many big plays, thanks to the preventative measures their defense takes, but Ore Adeyi is still targeted often and often holds up. He leads the defense with six deflections and an interception this season while managing 31 tackles. Adeyi is in his fifth season at Northwestern and has played plenty of football in Evanston. The Ducks could target him on the perimeter, but he has often done his job in single coverage.
Are the Ducks built to score on Northwestern?
The Ducks can score, but it will take a quality approach. Northwestern doesn't make a ton of mistakes and knows how to get guys on the ground. Still, despite the strong play from their linebackers, the Wildcats haven't been challenged by many run-first offenses this season, often forcing teams into passing situations on third down and winning by keeping the ball in front of them. Oregon could pound the rock on the ground with Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. to make the Wildcats break up front in a tough road environment.
Northwestern also blitzes to force quarterbacks into mistakes. Raiola is certainly susceptible to mistakes against the blitz, but with new ideas in the play-calling department, the Ducks could try to take advantage of Northwestern's blitz tendencies by throwing into the pass rush and having hot routes underneath the defense to chip away and stay in manageable situations on third down.
By playing with two high safeties, Northwestern is good at making sure receivers aren't running by them for deep throws, but that doesn't mean the Ducks can't catch a matchup against a linebacker and create explosive plays over the middle. The Wildcats allow a 61% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, so there will be opportunities to throw over the middle and make a defender miss for big plays. Oregon can win this game if the passing game is more vertical and less horizontal.
What should we expect?
I expect Northwestern to break its routine and play more in the box, but given Dan Lanning's comments about hoping to push the ball downfield more often with Jay Johnson calling plays, I do still expect the Wildcats to sit in their two-high safety look and play quarters. Once again, the big X-factor in this matchup is how the Ducks handle the pressure. I do think the Wildcats will harass Raiola, but if the Ducks can air it out downfield and connect on a big play or beat the blitz with a throw toward the rush to a hot route, McGarigle will have to adjust the look.
I also think Oregon could play Chip Kelly's scheme against the Wildcats, using lots of misdirection and winning between the tackles on the ground. Tommy Tofi's inclusion on the offensive line at left guard last week led to more running success against Illinois, and I think that could continue this week, even against Northwestern's fierce linebacker group.
The Ducks are expecting to get several receivers back in action this week, including Evan Stewart, so there should be more chances to stretch the field and throw over the middle. Northwestern is susceptible to big plays, but the Ducks don't need to force the action. As long as they play clean and try to push the ball vertically, rather than throwing screen after screen, there will be opportunities to win downfield.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: What should the Oregon Ducks expect from Northwestern's defense?
