It's going to be interesting to see how the national view of the Oregon Ducks is shaped this coming week. On Saturday afternoon, Dan Lanning's team gutted out a tough victory over the Boise State Broncos, 34-27, but they didn't quite look like the national championship contenders they've been billed to be while doing it.
Part of that could be because Boise State is a better team than we initially gave credit for, and part of it may be because it was Week 1, and growing pains are expected for everyone. Regardless of the result — a win is always better than a loss — there seems to be a feeling amongst college football analysts and fans that the Ducks may not be as mighty as once perceived.
ESPN's Football Power Index is among that group. In the
updated numbers released Sunday, Oregon dropped from No. 4 in the nation to No. 8, and their expected win percentage against several upcoming opponents fell. The Ducks are still favored to win a majority of their games, but it's fair to say ESPN is less high on Lanning's squad than a couple of days ago.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN, and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 2 at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 93.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 90.8%
Analysis: Despite Oklahoma State looking pretty bad in Week 1, losing to the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes 24-10, Oregon's win percentage has dropped against Eric Morris' team. Drew Mestemaker was average, at best, throwing for 241 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. If the Cowboys could only score 10 points against Tulsa, it's fair to wonder how successful they will be against the Ducks.
Week 3 vs. Portland State Vikings
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 99.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 99.0%
Analysis: In a strange sense, 99.0% doesn't seem like quite enough as far as win percentage goes? The Ducks are 6-0 all-time against the Vikings, and I don't see any reason why this year would be any different.
Week 4 at USC Trojans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 58.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 67.3%
Analysis: I'm not surprised to see the odds drop against USC. The Trojans have looked very good so far this year, albeit against weak competition, but they look primed and ready to give the Ducks a test at the end of September down in Los Angeles. This will be a season-defining game for both teams.
Week 6 vs. UCLA Bruins
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 92.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 96.7%
Analysis: UCLA looked very solid on Saturday night against Tosh Lupoi and the California Golden Bears, and the offense has an explosiveness that we haven't seen in quite some time. It will be interesting to see how UCLA progresses over the next few weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this percentage drop, with a potential game between two undefeated teams in Week 6.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 86.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 92.0%
Analysis: Nebraska didn't do enough in Week 1 to make me a bit concerned about this game. Nebraska struggled a bit at home with Ohio, and there continue to be some issues with Matt Rhule and his offense. I don't think Oregon will have any trouble here.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 81.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.0%
Analysis: I think Illinois is going to be a better team than many people think this year in the Big Ten, and they looked pretty good in their Week 1 victory. This game on the road might end up being tough for the Ducks, but ESPN feels confident that they will come out with a win.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 95.1%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 96.8%
Analysis: Bringing Chip Kelly and the Northwestern Wildcats to Eugene on Halloween night is going to be quite a bit of fun. Northwestern looked good in their first game with Aiden Chiles and Kelly running things, and they could be a surprise team in the conference this year. That being said, I think Oregon has more than enough talent to win this game at home.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 19.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 28.4%
Analysis: To be honest, I'm not at all shocked that the win percentage dropped as much as it did here. Oregon didn't look fantastic vs. Boise State, and Ohio State looked great, granted, against Ball State. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the nation, and they're going to be a tough out this season. Playing them in the Shoe is going to be no easy task.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 86.2%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 83.9%
Analysis: One of the only win percentages that increased for Oregon this week; thank you, Michigan. The Wolverines looked terrible at home, needing a controversial last-second Hail Mary to beat Western Michigan late on Saturday night. The offense was out of sorts, and Bryce Underwood was never able to get things going. Oregon gets this game at home, and unless the Wolverines make massive strides between now and then, it might be an easy one.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 89.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 93.1%
Analysis: This is the trap game of all trap games, coming on the road, sandwiched between Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington, and taking place on a Friday night. Regardless, Oregon is expected to roll, and while the Spartans looked solid in Week 1, they have a big talent deficit to Oregon.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 86.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 89.6%
Analysis: You always throw out the records in a rivalry game, but Oregon and Washington haven't been closely matched since back in 2023, and ESPN doesn't seem to think that will change this year. We will see what transpires between now and late November, but on paper, it appears that the Ducks have the upper hand here.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 4.4%
Previous FPI %: N/A
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 15.1%
Previous FPI %: 24.2%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 54.3%
Previous FPI %: 64.7%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 10.3%
Previous FPI %: 17.7%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 4.8%
Previous FPI %: 9.8%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: ESPN FPI drops Oregon Ducks out of top 5 after Boise State win
