The Oregon Ducks certainly looked better on Friday night in an 84-0 win over the Portland State Vikings, but as Dan Lanning stated after the game, that's how things were expected to go against an FCS school in the non-conference part of the season.
Going forward, though, the real tests begin for the Ducks, starting with a massive game against the USC Trojans this coming Saturday, with a lot on the line. It could end up being season-defining for both teams, win or lose, and have a major role to play in the College Football Playoff race.
After a loss to Oklahoma State in Week 2, the Ducks did well to get back on the horse this past week, though it's hard to take anything away from the outcome.
Ultimately, the national media appeared to take notice,
bumping Oregon up two spots to No. 16 in the US LBM Coaches Poll,and one spot in the AP Top 25 to No. 20. ESPN's Football Power Index also moved the Ducks ahead of USC and improved their win percentage against all but one team on their schedule.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 6 vs. UCLA Bruins
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 84.9%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.6%
Analysis: Going into the season, it didn't seem as if this matchup against UCLA was going to be marquee, but after what's transpired over the first four weeks of the season, all of a sudden this is looking like one of the more interesting games of the season. The Bruins are red-hot, and they are going to come to Eugene to try and knock off the Ducks. Of course, it is likely that Dylan Raiola gets the start with Dante Moore in concussion protocol, but this one has all of the makings of a great game.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 75.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 73.7%
Analysis: This game just got a lot more interesting if it's Dylan Raiola who is playing under center, rather than Dante Moore. Raiola getting a chance to face his former team will have a ton of storylines baked in, but as far as on-field drama, I don't know that there will be a ton. I think Oregon is the much better team on paper.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 77.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 73.7%
Analysis: Illinois looked decent against Ohio State this past week, and with this game taking place on the road, that has to factor in. However, the Ducks will likely have either an experience and comfortable Raiola under center, or Dante Moore returning. I think they've got a good shot.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 85.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 84.4%
Analysis: This is another game that has becoming incredibly intriguing over the past few weeks as Northwestern puts together a nice little start to the season behind Aiden Chiles and Chip Kelly's play-calling. While they couldn't take down Indiana this past weekend, they certainly game the defending champions a fight, and should no longer be considered an "easy out" for anyone in the Big Ten.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 22.2%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 16.7%
Analysis: Oregon proved on Saturday night that it could go on the road in a tough environment and come out with a win. Now, Ohio State is obviously much better than USC, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but I think this game is starting to look better than it did a few weeks ago.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 82.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 73.6%
Analysis: Michigan has been a hard team to figure out so far this year, but it feels safe to say that they haven't looked as good as expected with Kyle Whittingham at the helm. By the time November rolls around, they could be a completely different team with more cohesiveness, but at this point, I think Oregon should be able to walk out with a win.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 85.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 79.7%
Analysis: Michigan State has had an up and down year so far, and while this game comes as a potential trap with a short week and in between some big games, I think Oregon should be able to handle the Spartans with relative ease.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 91.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 87.1%
Analysis: Hilariously, Oregon's 91.7 win percentage over Washington is the highest percentage they have against any team remaining on the schedule. This is expected to be a game where the Ducks roll, and after what we saw from Washington on Saturday night, I think that's a fair expectation.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 6.1%
Previous FPI %: 1.8%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 19.1%
Previous FPI %: 9.2%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 41.1%
Previous FPI %: 20.6%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 6.6%
Previous FPI %: 3.0%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 3.2%
Previous FPI %: 1.3%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks' CFP chances double after win over USC, per ESPN FPI
