Oregon CFP chances: Ducks' path to College Football Playoff

The calendar has turned to October, and we are officially less than a month away from the first official College Football Playoff rankings, set to be released on November 3. For the Oregon Ducks

, this next stretch of games will be critical as they look to prove they are still the national championship-contending team many viewed them as going into the season, despite the early loss to Oklahoma State.

As we look toward the postseason in college football, it's not too early to consider what must happen for Oregon to get into the playoff for a third consecutive year. With a loss on the record already, the wiggle room has shrunk a bit, but the Ducks are still well in control of their own destiny, so long as they take care of business.

But how does

the season need to play out from here, and what scenarios might Oregon run into down the road? How many games can the Ducks afford to lose this year and still have a shot at a playoff spot?

We break it all down in our path to the College Football Playoff:

The Four Scenarios

In our view, four scenarios could reasonably get the Ducks into the College Football Playoff, though the final result would require a lot of outside help. Here's a look at the potential paths:

12-1 Record — Big Ten Championship Victory

CFP Lock?: Yes

Obviously, the Ducks would lock in a College Football Playoff spot if they win the Big Ten Championship game as an automatic bid. The question then becomes how high of a seed they could end up being. If they win out from here, it would mean wins over Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan, Northwestern, and Washington, including an additional team in the conference title game — likely either Indiana or a rematch against Ohio State. If the Ducks can pull all of that off, it's hard to imagine they'd be any lower than a No. 2 seed.

11-2 Record — Big Ten Championship Loss

CFP Lock?: Yes

While Oregon may not get a top-4 seed here, it's easy to lock them into a CFP spot regardless. At 11-2, with their second loss coming in the conference title game, that means the Ducks picked up wins over Ohio State, UCLA, Michigan, Northwestern, and Washington along the way. Going to Indianapolis for an extra game and losing is not something that the committee would penalize Dan Lanning's team for. I'd imagine — dependent on how the rest of the field shakes out — that Oregon would get a top-5 or top-6 seed in this scenario.

11-1 Record — Miss Big Ten Championship

CFP Lock?: Yes

The likelihood of this scenario is incredibly small. If Oregon manages to run the table over the next couple of months and end the year with an undefeated Big Ten record, it's almost a given that they would get into the conference title game, because it would come with wins over Ohio State, UCLA, and Nebraska — two of the other undefeated teams in conference play thus far. However, if there are multiple undefeated teams by the time December rolls around, we could get into tiebreaker scenarios, and there is technically a chance that Oregon gets bumped out. In the end, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world; the Ducks would have all the confidence in the world, a playoff spot locked up, and one less game of tread on the tires.

10-2 Record — Lose One Conference Game

CFP Lock?: Maybe

Depending on who they lose to in this scenario, it's pretty easy to see Oregon getting into the playoff. If Ohio State beats the Ducks, that's a good loss. If it's someone like UCLA, Northwestern, or Nebraska, that is tougher to justify, but it would also mean that Oregon went on the road and beat Ohio State. It also depends on how the loss happened. Was it a close, down-to-the-wire loss, or a blowout at home? All of these things will be taken into consideration if it does happen, but I think that the Ducks have a better chance than not of getting in with a 10-2 record, though it may make them a double-digit seed.

9-3 Record — Lose Two Conference Games

CFP Lock?: No

College Football Playoff lock? Definitely not. Still possible? Technically, yes. Again, it would all be dependent on who the losses come to, and how they played out. Close losses to teams like Ohio State and UCLA would be much easier to justify than blowout losses or stumbles against Washington and Northwestern. In the end, it matters what happens across the rest of the CFB landscape in this scenario, but be sure of one thing: If Oregon loses three games, they're going to need a lot of help to get into the postseason.

The Swing Games

Going into the year, Oregon had a relatively tough schedule, with a decently hard non-conference schedule, and a tough finish to the year in Big Ten play. Since then, though, the strength of schedule has increased exponentially. We know how strong the non-conference games against Boise State and Oklahoma State now look, and with teams like USC, UCLA, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington all playing at or near a top-25 level so far this season, it's fair to say that there are fewer "easy wins" than originally perceived for the Ducks.

Here's a look at the biggest remaining swing games for Oregon:

vs. UCLA Bruins (Week 6)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 84.8%

Analysis: This is undoubtedly one of the hardest games remaining on Oregon's schedule, and while we don't exactly know how good UCLA is because of the level of competition they've played thus far, it's fair to believe that they are well-deserving of their top-25 ranking and undefeated record. Oregon is favored by double digits, but this is still going to be a big test, especially with Dylan Raiola expected to be under center while Dante Moore continues to recover from his concussion. With a win, the Ducks will prove that they belong in the conversation among the top teams in the Big Ten, and should improve their playoff hopes greatly.

vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Week 7)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 73.7%

Analysis: Who would have thought this would be a swing game before the season started? Nebraska has looked good so far, and they're undefeated so far. Of course, we're going to see how good they really are this weekend when they host the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers, but regardless, it's going to be an important game for the Ducks, particularly if Raiola is under center against his former team.

vs. Northwestern Wildcats (Week 9)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 78.6%

Analysis: This has become one of the most intriguing games of the year for Oregon, thanks to the turnaround we've seen from Northwestern. Chip Kelly is the offensive coordinator, and he's infused new life into things with Aiden Chiles running the show. Between now and this game on Halloween, Northwestern has three winnable games against Ball State, Michigan State, and Rutgers, so it's easy to see this being a ranked matchup when all is said and done. As far as resume goes, this would be a big win.

at Ohio State Buckeyes (Week 10)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 19.8%

Analysis: Obviously, the biggest game on the schedule, and a potential Big Ten Championship or College Football Playoff preview. We're getting more and more matchups between the Ducks and the Buckeyes now that they're in the same conference, and each one has had massive stakes thus far. I expect nothing different this year around, though a loss for either team won't be completely detrimental.

vs. Michigan Wolverines (Week 11)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 86.4%

Analysis: While Michigan may not be quite as dominant as we projected ahead of the season, this game is still going to be pivotal in mid-November. The Wolverines are a national brand, and hosting them in Autzen Stadium is going to draw a lot of eyeballs. We feel confident that the Ducks will be able to win this game, but it's still going to be one that needs to be circled and treated with the utmost care.

vs. Washington Huskies (Week 13)

ESPN FPI Win Probability: 91.0%

Analysis: A rivalry game — need I say more? Washington is dealing with their own problems this year, and who knows what form they've taken by the final week of the season. But regardless of the team on the field, this is going to be a big moment for Oregon, both in the history of the rivalry and in the need to close out the regular season on a high note.

What Oregon Fans Should Root For

The Ducks hold their own destiny in their hands, and should they win the remaining games on their schedule — even the remaining games on their schedule that they're favored to win — they will find their way into the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive season. However, if they get in a position where outside help comes into play, here are some teams that Oregon fans should be rooting for, and against.

Teams to Root For:

Any past or future opponents who could be notable at season's end:

• Boise State Broncos
• Oklahoma State Cowboys
• USC Trojans
• UCLA Bruins
• Nebraska Cornhuskers
• Northwestern Wildcats
• Ohio State Buckeyes*
• Michigan Wolverines
• Washington Huskies

*With Ohio State, it's a bit complicated. On one hand, you want the Buckeyes to be ranked as high as possible when Oregon goes into Columbus on November 7, as that would make a win look better, or a loss more justifiable. However, the Buckeyes are also a major Big Ten Championship competitor, and a potential at-large bid stealer as well. Leading up to Week 10, Duck fans should root for Ohio State, but if they were to lose to Nebraska, Northwestern, or Michigan after Oregon comes to town, it wouldn't be the end of the world.

Teams to Root Against:

Any Big-Ten competitors not on Oregon's schedule:

• Indiana Hoosiers
• Minnesota Golden Gophers
• Iowa Hawkeyes
• Wisconsin Badgers
• Group of 6 Teams Other Than Boise State*

*The Boise State win could end up being one of Oregon's most impressive of the year if the Broncos go on to win the Pac-12 and represent the Group of 6 in the College Football Playoff. That would be huge for Oregon's resume, should they need help at the end of the year when it comes to seeding. This means that teams like New Mexico, James Madison, North Dakota State, and Memphis, among others, are on the naughty list for Duck fans.

The Final Verdict

Oregon Gets In If...

• They finish 12-1, 11-1, 11-2, or 10-2
• In some of those scenarios, they will make it to the Big Ten Championship, in which case they would be guaranteed a spot with a win, or still grab an automatic bid with a loss. Long story short: If the Ducks finish the year with 2 or fewer losses, they are in.

Oregon is Out If...

• They lose three or more games this season, no matter who those losses come to.

Oregon doesn't need to be perfect from here on out, but the margin for error is relatively small, thanks to the September loss to Oklahoma State. Should they win out, it would remove any doubt, and even with one more loss, they should still be fine, thanks to their strength of schedule. However, anything past that, and things get dicey. Fortunately, the Ducks control their own destiny at this point, and don't have to worry about anything outside of their control.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon CFP chances: Ducks' path to College Football Playoff