It's been a roller-coaster of a season for the Oregon Ducks, with many highs and lows experienced through the first nine weeks. The Ducks entered with championship aspirations, felt early doubt and frustration, and then hope despite turmoil as backup quarterback Dylan Riola appeared to be the answer following Dante Moore's injury.
However, then came the pitfalls. The lowest of lows were felt in losses to UCLA and Illinois, but after a win over No. 20 Northwestern on Saturday, it appears that the Ducks might be on a bit of an upswing once again. While some mid-season chaos takes place in the Big Ten, there technically remains a chance that Oregon can make a run at the conference title game and sneak into the College Football Playoff. That much
has been reflected in the numbers according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
Of course, for any of that to happen, the Ducks will need to win out, starting with a tough game on the road this week against the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 16.9%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 13.1%
Analysis: This matchup certainly looks a lot different than we expected going into the season. What once was projected as a top-five matchup and a potential national championship preview is now a matchup between No. 11 Ohio State and an unranked Oregon, with both teams starting backup quarterbacks. The Ducks have seemingly found a rhythm with their offense under new play-caller Jay Johnson, while the Buckeyes struggled, to say the least, with true freshman QB Luke Fahey under center vs. USC. It feels impossible to forecast what this game will look like.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 78.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 77.1%
Analysis: Michigan's struggles are continuing, and while they got a win over Rutgers with Tommy Carr under center, to say there is confidence in Ann Arbor right now would be an overstatement. We will see what both of these teams look like going into mid-November in Autzen, as both have seemingly changed week to week.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 82.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 81.2%
Analysis: Of all the games remaining on Oregon's schedule, this is undoubtedly the most winnable, but it's not going to be easy, coming on a short week on the road, between matchups against Michigan and Washington. As far as talent goes, the Ducks will have the edge; they just need to be coached up and ready to play.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 82.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 85.8%
Analysis: This game got a little more interesting over the weekend. There is technically a chance, assuming that other factors play out as needed, that the Ducks are playing for a potential spot in the Big Ten Championship in this game, and will need a rivalry win to get it done. That sets up for an explosive meeting in Autzen between two teams that hate each other with a passion.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 6.9%
Previous FPI %: 4.8%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 2.6%
Previous FPI %: 0.7%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 4.2%
Previous FPI %: 1.9%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 0.3%
Previous FPI %: 0.1%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 0.1%
Previous FPI %: 0.1%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks' CFP chances double after Northwestern win, per ESPN FPI
