Having suffered three losses before the calendar flipped to November, the Oregon Ducks find themselves scrapping and clawing to make the Big Ten championship game, hoping to give themselves a shot at the College Football Playoff. It's not an enviable spot to be in, as the Ducks need to receive some help in order to reach the conference title game — but it's the spot that Oregon has put itself in.
They've done their part in digging themselves out of a hole, winning two straight must-wins against Northwestern and Ohio State. The wins must continue in the final three regular-season games, home contests against Michigan and Washington and road date with Michigan State. If they don't go 3-0, nothing else matters and the Ducks will be packing their bags
for a no-name bowl game in roughly a month.
If they don't get some help, and the CFP Committee doesn't deem them worthy of receiving an at-large bid to the 12-team field, that same result will occur. Help is very much needed, and Week 11 is the most important week of them all.
Last week, there were ten teams with two or fewer losses in Big Ten play. Now, after Minnesota and Northwestern loss, that number is down to eight. Oregon is joined by five other teams with exactly two conference losses and hoping to be joined by a sixth after Week 11. Tiebreakers will almost certainly come into the picture.
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's break down the four games that matter towards Oregon's chances of making the Big Ten title game in Week 11, assuming the Ducks take care of business against the Wolverines.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 4 UCLA Bruins (Friday)
When: 6:00 p.m. PT | | Friday
Where: Rose Bowl | | Pasadena, CA
TV: Fox
Why it matters: This one's simple: UCLA wins and Illinois is essentially eliminated from the Big Ten title race with their third loss. The reason this matters for the Ducks is that the Fighting Illini hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Ducks in Champaign in October, Oregon's third loss of the year and second in conference. If Illinois miraculously wins on Friday night at the Rose Bowl over the undefeated Bruins, Duck fans should worry just a bit, but not too much. The Fighting Illini still have to play Iowa and Northwestern to finish the year. As long as they don't go undefeated, the Ducks will be fine. UCLA is basically a shoo-in as a representative in the Big Ten title game, so them winning on Friday doesn't mean anything for Oregon.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Maryland Terrapins
When: 9:00 a.m. PT
Where: SECU Stadium | | College Park, MD
TV: FS1
Why it matters: Wisconsin is another squad with two conference losses, and the tiebreaker scenario could get quite complicated. Assuming Oregon wins out, the Ducks and Badgers have the same 2-1 record against common conference opponents. From there, it'd go to the record against the highest-finishing conference opponent, but both teams would've beaten the same common opponents (USC and Michigan State) and lost to the same opponent (UCLA). Then, the tiebreaker would go to the cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, something that won't be certain until the end of the regular season. To eliminate all of that potential confusion, an upset from the Terrapins would help the Ducks out tremendously.
No. 18 USC Trojans vs. No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers
When: 12:30 p.m. PT
Where: Memorial Stadium | | Bloomington, IN
TV: CBS
Why it matters: This is the biggest one, and it's unfortunate that it's at the same time as Oregon's bout with Michigan. Duck fans, it might be worth rocking the two TV set-up if you're able to, as it holds a ton of weight in terms of the Ducks' Big Ten title chances. The Hoosiers are currently 5-1 in conference. If they win out, they face UCLA in the conference championship. But a loss to USC would knock them down to the two-loss crew and give Oregon the tie-breaker, as the Ducks would have a better record against common opponents thanks to their win over the Trojans. Oregon winning on Saturday is big, but arch-rival USC winning in Bloomington would put the Ducks in the driver's seat for the Big Ten title game. Just this week, Duck fans will have to root hard for the Trojans.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Iowa Hawkeyes
When: 4:30 p.m. PT
Where: Kinnick Stadium | | Iowa City, IA
TV: NBC
Why it matters: Iowa is in a similar spot as Wisconsin, holding two conference losses with a relatively light remaining schedule of Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska remaining. With the same record against common opponents, the tie-breaker with Oregon (assuming both the Ducks and Hawkeyes win out) would go to the record against the highest common opponent in the standings. That's likely to be Ohio State, a team that Oregon beat and Iowa lost to. But if the Buckeyes crumble down the stretch, that could change and put the Ducks in jeopardy of losing a tie-breaker to Iowa. This would be another miraculous upset, but Purdue getting a win at Kinnick Stadium would further clear the path for Oregon.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Four games that matter for Oregon's Big Ten title chances in Week 11
