Saturday night under the lights of Autzen Stadium will undoubtedly be the most important game of the season for the Oregon Ducks. Not only because it is the next game, but the manner in which the Ducks' offense responds to a horrendous showing will set the tone for the rest of the season.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers' defense could be a nightmare matchup, however, for an Oregon offense that doesn't have a starting quarterback set in stone. While Dante Moore is not expected to return this week, the Ducks will have to make a decision between former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola or Eugene local Brock Thomas.
Like UCLA, Nebraska knows how to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the Cornhuskers know how to finish the job and bring down passers
for sacks. Given Oregon's lack of stability at both quarterback and along the offensive line, it's not hard to see Nebraska having success on Saturday night.
Still, the Cornhuskers aren't without their faults, and Oregon's talent could still come through and create big plays to compete and win the game. Oregon's offense has typically been at its best late in games, whereas the Nebraska defense folded in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to Indiana. While the odds might seem stacked against the Ducks, there will be opportunities for the offense to thrive.
Let's take a look at what Nebraska does on defense schematically, who to look out for, and what the Ducks might be able to do to put points on the board.
What Does Nebraska Do Well on Defense?
The Cornhuskers have done a good job defending the pass and forcing incompletions this season, allowing quarterbacks to complete just 54% of passes so far this season. They have also slowed down rushing attacks early in games. That was a key for their defense against Indiana, holding the Hoosiers to just 65 yards and forcing them to throw the ball in the second half.
Nebraska also has the best third-down defense in the country, allowing opposing offenses to convert on just 19.7% of their attempts. Oregon's offense has struggled on third downs this season, including going just 1-for-12 on third downs against UCLA and typically facing long distances. Nebraska forces difficult situations on third downs with its front seven and its balanced approach against the pass and run.
The pass rush is Nebraska's biggest strength, managing 18 sacks so far this season. The Cornhuskers always have a plan and can win by rushing just four by using twists and stunts. However, defensive coordinator Rob Aurich has also done a good job of disguising and delaying blitzes from the second level. Nebraska gets its linebackers and corners involved in the pass rush, so the heat can truly come from anywhere.
Players to Know
DE Williams Nwaneri
A former five-star recruit, Williams Nwaneri is finally starting to meet his potential in his second season with the Cornhuskers. Nwaneri has two sacks and three tackles for loss so far this season, but he is one of the most consistent pressure forces on Nebraska's defense. At 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds, Nwaneri is a massive physical threat and is second on the team with five hits on the quarterback. Whether he lines up inside or on the outside, he will be a challenge for the Oregon offensive line to handle without some help.
LB Owen Chambliss
Senior linebacker Owen Chambliss is a tackling machine in the middle of the Nebraska defense. He had 109 tackles and four sacks last season at San Diego State. Chambliss has not been as big a part of the pass rush plan this season, but he does lead the team with 31 tackles. Chambliss also has an interception and is an athletic linebacker who can take away the middle of the field. Oregon wants to get the ball to Jamari Johnson more often this week, and Chambliss will be a big part of Nebraska's plan to stop him.
NB Donovan Jones
Donovan Jones is a jack-of-all-trades player for the Cornhuskers. As a nickel defender, Jones has the speed and size to keep up with any of Oregon's receivers from the slot and plays very well close to the line of scrimmage. Jones leads Nebraska with four deflections and has one interception and a forced fumble. He also has 26 tackles and two sacks, so the Ducks will need to block him well when throwing quickly into the flat. Jones knows how to evade blockers and is a sound tackler.
Are the Ducks Built to Score on Nebraska?
No matter who is under center for the Ducks, if Oregon's offense plays to its potential, it can score on anybody. Nebraska has played quality defense this season, but explosive plays and busts in coverage have plagued the Cornhuskers at times this season. It was the biggest reason the Cornhuskers blew a two-score lead last week at home against Indiana, and it could be the reason the Ducks score this Saturday.
Nebraska has only allowed 94.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 18th nationally, but its defense has been worn down over the course of a long and physical game. To start fast, the Ducks need to establish the run game early on and stick with it. If at first Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. don't succeed, the Ducks can go completely away from it, even if Raiola or Thomas are having success in the air. The ground game could be the way Oregon closes out a win in the fourth quarter, but the Ducks will need to make Nebraska respect their rushing attack and think about it throughout the game.
Oregon's ability to score might come down to who is under center and how the Ducks alter their game plan. There should be an emphasis to get the ball to Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart more often, and quick passes could negate the Nebraska pass rush. However, nothing came easy last week, and the Cornhuskers have a much more fearsome pass rush coming to town this week. Whoever is at quarterback will need to have a plan and know where his hot routes are to throw into the blitz and avoid pressure.
What Should We Expect?
It's hard to say. Oregon's offense this season has been predicated a lot on scheming players open along the sideline or throwing screen passes and trying to set up blocks downfield. But that was sniffed out last week and led to several turnovers, and Dan Lanning has vowed to make changes to the process on offense this week. That could include a change in play-caller, new plays, or a different type of attack.
I wouldn't expect Oregon to do the same thing as last week again, so the Ducks might take more chances in the passing game against single coverage. So much of the Ducks' offense is well thought out to get players open, but Nebraska has proven to be a smart defense and won't let a quarterback hold the ball long enough for those plays to work. Nebraska is physical in the secondary, but also heavily penalized. Giving Moore, Stewart and Johnson chances against single coverage could be a winning formula.
Oregon's fourth-quarter offense this season has been aggressive and could take advantage of some of the mistakes Nebraska has made late in games this season. I expect the Ducks to take the shots they don't typically take this week, going for broke and going for the biggest plays possible in a must-win game. Nebraska is going to bring pressure against Oregon's ever-shuffling offensive line, and that will be the Cornhuskers' best plan to force more incompletions and force the Ducks into difficult spots on third down.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: What should the Oregon Ducks expect from Nebraska's defense?
