Do you trust your eyes, or do you trust the algorithm?
On Saturday afternoon, the Oregon Ducks suffered an embarrassing loss to the UCLA Bruins at home, committing seven turnovers while failing to capitalize on an impressive defensive performance, resulting in their second loss of the season and all but knocking them out of the College Football Playoff race.
The defeat was enough to knock Dan Lanning's team down 12 spots in the US LBM Coaches Poll to No. 25 — the lowest mark in Lanning's tenure — and all the way out of the Associated Press Top 25. However, ESPN's Football Power Index appears to be unwavering when it comes to the Ducks' standing as one of the top teams in the nation.
On Sunday, Oregon remained at No. 9 in the FPI, exactly where
they were going into the game. Their percent chance to win the Big Ten, make the CFP, and win the championship all dropped dramatically, but as far as their standing among the other top teams in the nation, Oregon remains.
Take that for what it's worth.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per ESPN FPI: 66.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 73.7%
Analysis: Based on what we saw from Nebraska over the weekend in their close loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, I feel as if their win probability should be quite a bit higher, especially considering how the Ducks looked. We still don't know what the QB situation looks like for Oregon, but unless it gets dramatically better, then the Ducks could be locked into a dogfight here against the Cornhuskers.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 78.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 81.5%
Analysis: The season has not gone as planned for Illinois so far this season, but they get Oregon at home, and who knows what the Ducks look like at this point, particularly at the QB spot. After a close win over Michigan State this past weekend, the arrow is slightly up for the Fighting Illini, but it still feels as if an average Oregon team should be able to win this game on the road.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 75.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 78.6%
Analysis: Outside of the game at Ohio State, this may be the contest that I feel the least confident about for the Ducks. Not only is it a look-ahead spot with the Buckeyes a week away, but Northwestern has looked fantastic this season, reinvigorated by Chip Kelly taking over as the offensive coordinator. Oregon's going to have a tough matchup here.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 17.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 19.8%
Analysis: Even at full strength, the Ducks were going to have a really tough time with the Buckeyes, who look like one of the best teams in the nation. Now, with Oregon in disarray, there's a good chance this ends up being a blowout in Columbus.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 82.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 86.4%
Analysis: Michigan has not looked as good as we expected ahead of the year, but there appears to be a lot of that going around. Fortunately, Oregon gets this game at home, but it should be a tough, physical matchup late in the season, but there will probably be a lot less riding on it than we expected early in the year.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 85.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 88.2%
Analysis: All preseason, this has been billed as the "trap game" for Oregon, with it coming on a short week, and played between games against Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington. However, the Spartans have been very uninspiring so far this year, so I don't think the Ducks should have much of a problem.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 90.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 91.0%
Analysis: Washington continues to have a hellish season unfold in front of them, and a blowout loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes at home is just the latest in missteps. There's a real chance that they struggle to reach seven wins this year if things don't turn around quickly, but an even realer chance that this game between the Ducks and Huskies has little more than bragging rights riding on it in late November.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 4.2%
Previous FPI %: 5.5%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 3.9%
Previous FPI %: 16.1%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 9.6%
Previous FPI %: 39.0%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 0.9%
Previous FPI %: 5.2%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 0.4%
Previous FPI %: 2.3%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon falls in polls, but ESPN FPI still has Ducks in top 10
