When the UCLA Bruins roll into Autzen Stadium, rarely is it not a memorable game. The Oregon Ducks have a new look rolling into the ranked Big Ten showdown that very few saw coming during the preseason. Dylan Raiola will likely man the ship for the Oregon offense, while Dante Moore recovers from a concussion, and the Ducks will try to stay on course and avoid another October letdown.
Last season, the Ducks earned a big road win over Penn State before heading into the bye week. After the bye passed, the Ducks were stunned at home by Indiana, which went on to win the national championship. UCLA might not have quite the same ceiling this season, but Dan Lanning noted the clear similarities between both teams coming into the game.
UCLA isn't a pushover.
The Bruins have been one of the nation's top scoring offenses this season, led by James Madison transfer running back Wayne Knight and quarterback Nico Iamaleava in his second season in Los Angeles. The defense often throws plenty of pressure at opposing quarterbacks, and even though they don't always get home, they inflict enough damage to force mistakes, ranking third in the country with 12 takeaways.
Oregon is a double-digit favorite on Saturday and seeking a sixth consecutive win over the Bruins. UCLA hasn't beaten the Ducks in Eugene since 2004, and the Ducks have always played well when debuting a new uniform against the visiting Bruins. Oregon will debut the "Origin of Speed" uniform set on Saturday.
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday afternoon in an old Pac-12 matchup.
Dylan Raiola vs. Nico Iamaleava
Edge: Oregon
Maybe this is controversial, considering Dylan Raiola is the backup quarterback likely to play in this game for Oregon, but given what we have seen this season from both offenses, I trust Raiola in a big moment more than Nico Iamaleava. UCLA has leaned on the ground game to good effect, but Iamaleava hasn't been tasked with winning a game for the Bruins yet this season. He also takes a lot of unnecessary hits as a runner, and that's a bad idea against Oregon's defense. Even without Dante Moore, I give the edge at quarterback to the Ducks.
Oregon RBs vs. UCLA RBs
Edge: UCLA
Wayne Knight is the engine that drives the UCLA offense, but the Bruins have several capable runners, including Jaivian Thomas, who is often featured as a third back. Knight has already scored nine times this season and has found success both between the tackles and off the edge, so he should continue to run well against Oregon. The Ducks haven't run well this season, but did a better job against USC, running the ball to control the clock, and Dierre Hill Jr. scored twice. Still, UCLA has the edge here because of the depth in the room and the overwhelming production so far.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. UCLA Pass Catchers
Edge: Oregon
For the same reason I gave UCLA the edge at running back, the Ducks earn the edge here. Even without Jeremiah McClellan, Oregon has so much depth out wide, whereas UCLA hasn't needed to throw the ball a ton. The Bruins will be without Mikey Matthews, so someone like Aidan Mizell will need to step up. Semaj Morgan, a Michigan transfer, is the biggest weapon, and Knight plays a big role in the passing game as well for the Bruins, but the Ducks' receivers have not disappointed this season. Dakorien Moore has caught a touchdown in every game, Evan Stewart looks like his old self, Jamari Johnson dominated in his return against USC, and Messiah Hampton has been a delightful surprise as a freshman. Oregon has the weapons to take the top off the UCLA defense.
Oregon Defense vs. UCLA Defense
Edge: Oregon
UCLA is one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country when it comes to creating turnovers, but sometimes that has left the secondary exposed. Oregon's secondary has faced better competition this season and has been beat at times, but I trust the Ducks to slow down Iamaleava and the Bruins through the air. This game will come down to the trenches. Oregon's defensive line hasn't played up to its potential this season and has been undisciplined on the edges, while UCLA has done a great job of stopping the run. Still, I think Oregon's ability to get off the field on third down shouldn't be overlooked, and if the Ducks can force UCLA into third-and-long situations, Oregon has a great chance to win on critical downs. The Ducks' defense is also battle-tested against better offenses, whereas the best offense UCLA has seen this season so far is Purdue, which scored 38 points.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When UCLA Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Oregon
Oregon has been in this spot before, while this is a massive "prove-it" spot for UCLA. The Ducks have the better roster and seem to play better as the games go on. I trust Raiola to make the simple plays, as he did against USC, and while Iamaleava is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country, I haven't seen him lead a win yet this season. The running game will be there for UCLA, but at times, Iamaleava will have to take control on the road in Autzen Stadium. Easier said than done.
Defensively, the Bruins are statistically the superior unit, especially holding Maryland without a touchdown on the road. However, Oregon is the best offense the Bruins have seen this season, and the Ducks have the speed to expose some of the problems in the secondary. UCLA's front seven will play a big factor against Raiola, but the Ducks have lots of ways to get rid of the ball quickly and mitigate the risk inside.
Oregon's defense held its own against USC late, despite giving up several big plays. The secondary has finally found its grouping on the perimeter, so it will be up to the defensive line to put pressure on Iamaleava, and the safety room, led by Koi Perich and Aaron Flowers, to take a big step forward after the bye week.
In Autzen Stadium for a ranked matchup, there is plenty on the line for both teams. I'll take Oregon's talent and experience to win out in the biggest moments of the game.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for No. 13 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 21 UCLA Bruins
