The Oregon Ducks and the No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats are set to meet in Eugene for the very first time this weekend, and the stakes are varied for two teams going in different directions.
Oregon has already made several changes on offense this season, most recently letting go of offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer, and the season is lost after suffering a third loss last week on the road at Illinois. Dante Moore is not coming back to save the Ducks this season, so Oregon is essentially playing for pride and momentum at this point.
Meanwhile, Northwestern enters with just one loss and is in the thick of both the Big Ten and College Football Playoff races, and a win over the Ducks would go a long way toward cracking the 12-team field. David Braun
has led the turnaround, and Chip Kelly has adapted his offensive scheme to fit his personnel like a glove. The Wildcats are coming off a 42-14 schlacking of Rutgers last week, but now they enter the toughest part of their schedule, with Oregon, Iowa and Ohio State on deck.
The Ducks are still slight favorites this week at home, but all momentum is in Northwestern's favor. Oregon is expecting to get a host of receivers back in the mix this week, which could lead to more explosive plays this week, but the offense remains a mystery.
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday afternoon in a Halloween matchup from Autzen Stadium for the Ducks against the Wildcats.
Dylan Raiola vs. Aidan Chiles
Edge: Northwestern
Aidan Chiles has been one of the biggest surprise success stories this season, while Dylan Raiola has been one of the biggest failures so far this season. Chiles has played well off the run game, often making throws on the move and being decisive over the middle, tossing just one interception. Meanwhile, Raiola was forced into action earlier than anticipated and has struggled to be accurate and keep the ball out of harm's way. Simply put, I think Chiles is in a system that is tailored to his strengths, while Raiola just hasn't been clean in his first season in a new offense. Chiles is the easy choice here.
Oregon RBs vs. Northwestern RBs
Edge: Northwestern
Both of these teams use three backs, as Oregon has begun to incorporate freshman Brandon Smith more in recent weeks, while Gavin Sawchuk has been a regular part of Northwestern's rushing attack, so there is added depth to the room beyond the listed players. The Ducks took a step in the right direction last week on the ground with both Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr., but Northwestern wants to run the ball and has done so at an efficient clip all season long. The Wildcats have struggled to run the ball on the road at times this season, but facing an Oregon defense that struggled to stop the run a week ago, this is a favorable matchup for Northwestern.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. Northwestern Pass Catchers
Edge: Oregon
Northwestern has been more selective with its passing game this season, in part because of how successful the Wildcats have been on the ground. Without Luke Dehnicke in the lineup, Chiles has really relied on Griffin Wilde to lead the way, and he has led Northwestern in receiving yards in all but one game this season. Despite the uncertainty under center, there is no denying Oregon's talent out wide. Evan Stewart, Messiah Hampton and Jalen Lott are all expected to return this week, so the Ducks will have depth once again. This is an easy pick, but Wilde remains one of the most overlooked pass catchers in the conference.
Oregon Defense vs. Northwestern Defense
Edge: Slightly Oregon
Both defenses have done a good job in recent weeks of bending and not breaking, particularly Northwestern, which has been one of the best red zone defenses in the country this season. Both teams have also had issues against the run at times this season, but the Ducks grade out as a better defense in most categories, and I feel more confident in Oregon getting off the field on critical downs. Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei have turned up the heat on the edge and can force Chiles to get off his spot and play out of structure, which he can do, but any amount of discomfort that Oregon can inflict early on is a win. Northwestern can generate pressure as well, but I think the Ducks' defense is more well-rounded in this matchup.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When Northwestern Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Northwestern
It's anybody's guess as to what Oregon's offense will look like this week. Dan Lanning wanted to change things up and be more aggressive, leading to Jay Johnson calling the plays, but how much can really change in a week? Is Raiola going to suddenly become more accurate and immune to a pass rush? I have my doubts.
The Ducks should be able to put some resistance on Northwestern's versatility rushing attack and give the offense opportunities to win this game, but I'm not sure the dam will last all four quarters, similar to how it broke in the second half last week against Illinois. My biggest question for Northwestern this season has been whether or not Chiles could win games for the Wildcats when the ground game isn't working. Oregon's defense is a big test, but so far, with the exception of an up-and-down outing against Indiana, he has shown that he is ready for the moment.
Northwestern's play in the trenches has been stellar this season, but Oregon's defensive line is the best it has seen this season. On the other side, Oregon's wideout depth is the best the Wildcats have seen, but there is no guarantee that the Ducks can use those weapons to reach their explosive potential. I think Kelly is going to have a big day keeping the Ducks guessing, and the Wildcats run the ball late to win the game.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for Oregon Ducks vs. Northwestern Wildcats
