This isn't quite how the Oregon Ducks imagined the season starting, to say the least.
After entering 2026 with championship aspirations, and with as talented a roster as we have ever seen in Eugene, Dan Lanning's team has done nothing but subvert expectations so far, culminating in an embarrassing 39-31 lossto the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday afternoon in Stillwater.
It's an upset loss that has left the fanbase reeling, and the coaches searching for answers. The blame starts with Lanning, but spreads throughout his staff for not having the team prepared for seemingly the second week in a row.
The national media is taking notice, understandably, and the Ducks are currently freefalling in the polls after the loss. In the US LBM Coaches Poll,
Oregon has fallen to No. 18, its lowest rank since Lanning's first year in Eugene. ESPN's Football Power Index also dropped the Ducks down to No. 13, notably behind theUSC Trojans,who Oregon will see in two weeks.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN, and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 3 vs. Portland State Vikings
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 99.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 99.0%
Analysis: Oregon still has a 99% chance to beat Portland State on Friday, which is refreshing in a sense, but what matters is how they beat them. If this is a dominant showing that is never even close to competitive, fans might be able to finally catch a breath of fresh air in what's been a stressful two-week season. If it is anything short of that, though, questions will continue to be raised in Eugene.
Week 4 at USC Trojans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 41.8%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 58.3%
Analysis: This game was circled on the schedule before the season started as a chance to prove early on what either team could be in years with high expectations. Now it's being underlined for the Ducks as a potential make-or-break game that could completely alter their trajectory. With another loss, Oregon could very well be out of the playoff picture entirely, and up to this point, they've given no reason to believe that the Trojans shouldn't blow them out of the water in Los Angeles.
Week 6 vs. UCLA Bruins
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 82.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 92.4%
Analysis: Oregon is still expected to win this game handily after a bye week and a return home, but I don't think any Duck fan out there feels relatively confident at this juncture. UCLA has looked good through their first two weeks of the season under Bob Chesney, and there is absolutely a reality where they can come into Eugene and pull off an upset.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 66.5%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 86.0%
Analysis: Nebraska is one of the more impressive teams we have seen in the Big Ten this year, and they seem to have something with QB Anthony Colandrea, scoring 105 points through two games. We will see what Oregon looks like after the USC and UCLA games, and where their season is headed by the time this one rolls around.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 72.0%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 81.7%
Analysis: I have a feeling this game might be a bit trickier than fans are expecting at the outset. Illinois is a solid team, and going on the road seems to be a struggle for this Oregon team, at least early on. Again, we will wait to see where Oregon's season is headed at this juncture of the season, but I have this circled as a potential loss if things don't drastically improve.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 90.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 95.1%
Analysis: We didn't get to see Northwestern this past week, as they were on a bye, but Chip Kelly's offense looked solid in Week 1 with Aiden Chiles under center. The Wildcats don't strike me as a team that can come into Eugene on Halloween night and upset the Ducks, but we'll see what transpires between now and then.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 10.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 19.7%
Analysis: Despite Ohio State losing on Saturday and blowing a 20-point fourth-quarter lead over the Texas Longhorns, they still showed themselves to be a good team, and I'm not surprised in the slightest to see their win expectancy over the Ducks is this high. Maybe Oregon turns things around between now and November, but a matchup once billed as marquee is currently up in the air.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 69.3%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 86.2%
Analysis: Credit to Michigan for getting an upset win over No. 11 Oklahoma on Saturday, though I don't think either team feels particularly great about how they played, especially on offense. Bryce Underwood is clearly still a work in progress, so we should wait and see what he looks like by November before getting a great feel for this game.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 76.9%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 89.8%
Analysis: This game is already being circled as a trap game on Oregon's schedule, coming in between matchups against Ohio State, Michigan, and Washington, and falling on a short week Friday night. On paper, this should be a game that Oregon wins handily due to all of the talent on their roster, but there are going to be tough circumstances around it.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 83.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 86.3%
Analysis: If there's any positive note for Oregon this year, it's that the Huskies have looked almost as bad as the Ducks. They squeaked out a 16-14 win over the Utah State Aggies on Saturday, and generally have not looked inspiring. Maybe both teams turn things around and play a meaningful game late in the year, but at this point, there's little to be inspired about in this matchup.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 4.4%
Previous FPI %: 4.4%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 15.1%
Previous FPI %: 15.1%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 54.3%
Previous FPI %: 54.3%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 10.3%
Previous FPI %: 10.3%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 4.8%
Previous FPI %: 4.8%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon falls behind USC Trojans in ESPN FPI after upset loss
