An afternoon trip to Champaign is on deck for the Oregon Ducks' stumbling offense, which might be just what the doctor ordered, facing an Illinois defense that has already made several sweeping changes during a trying season in the Midwest.
Illinois made a coordinator change on defense a few weeks ago after a blowout loss to Ohio State, and things haven't been much better since. The Illini have wins over UAB and Southern Illinois, as well as an overtime victory over Michigan State heading into the bye week. However, in losses to Ohio State, Duke and Purdue, the Illini have allowed an average of 32.3 points.
In an odd turn of events, the stoppable force that has been Oregon's offense the past two weeks will meet the movable object that is Illinois'
defense, which could lead to a mundane collision or a breakthrough for one side. The Ducks will likely roll into the game without their starting quarterback Dante Moore, meaning it will once again come down to Dan Lanning to decide on the backup that will get under center.
Despite some of the unit's struggles, Illinois does some interesting things defensively that could give the Ducks some trouble. Let's take a look at what Illinois does on defense schematically, who to look out for, and what the Ducks might be able to do to put points on the board.
What does Illinois do well on defense?
Illinois' defense hasn't been great this season, even since firing Bobby Hauck midseason and switching to Roger Cooper as the play-caller and defensive coordinator. The Illini run a 3-3-5 defense, stacking their defensive linemen and linebackers while primarily playing out of a nickel look in the secondary. Lanning noted this week how difficult the 3-3 stack can be to game plan for because of the varying pressures and rotations the defense can do in the secondary to change the picture for the quarterback.
The Illini use a lot of twists and stunts up front while often blitzing a linebacker or defensive back to disguise the pressure. The defensive formation also allows for a late shift and pre-snap movement to counter offensive motion in an attempt to confuse the quarterback before the snap about what type of coverage they are facing. Despite the poor numbers the Illinois defense has put up this season, they have a lot of unique wrinkles that force an opposing offense to play fundamentally sound, rather than overly aggressive in any particular area.
There is also plenty of athleticism and experience on this defense. More than half of the regular starters and rotational pieces are seniors with great speed and ability. There is no shortage of experience on the defensive side that can be difficult for a struggling offense to take on, especially on the road. Both linebackers in the middle of the defense, Ismael Kante and James Kreutz, are seniors among the team leaders in tackles and lead the Illini in tackles for loss, figuring out ways to play behind the line of scrimmage and create negative plays.
Players to know
DE Will Holmes
For a team that ranks dead last in the Big Ten with five sacks, Will Holmes is the primary pass rusher to keep an eye on. Holmes is often on the move and rarely rushes from an on-set position. He can float around the defense, twist and stunt at the snap, and he is one of the better pressure generators in the conference, tied with Oregon's Teitum Tuioti for seventh in the Big Ten with 19 pressures. He only has one sack this season, but Holmes is a solid player up front.
S Matthew Bailey
Matthew Bailey is a three-year starter for the Illini and a hulking defensive back in the secondary, standing at 6-foot-2 and 225 pounds. He leads the defense with 41 tackles and had a long pick-six earlier this season against Southern Illinois. Bailey led the Illini in tackles the past two seasons and is excellent at stepping up from his safety position and fitting against the run. As a last line of defense, Bailey is as sound a tackler as there is in the Big Ten.
CB Juice Clarke
Illinois' pass defense has been dreadful this season, and Juice Clarke has been beat at times this season. But Clarke is as feisty as they come, notably going toe-to-toe and jawing with Jeremiah Smith the past two seasons. He will be the Illini's top cover corner this weekend against Oregon's prolific receiving core, although the group is expected to be without key weapons in Jeremiah McClellan and Evan Stewart. Clarke has 26 tackles this season and leads the team with six deflections.
Are the Ducks built to score on Illinois?
Even the worst version of this Oregon offense should be able to score on this Illinois defense. The Illini have allowed 31.4 points and allow 248.3 passing yards per game this season, which ranks 114th in the nation. The Illini also allow 126.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 49th in the country, so the Ducks could be able to build on some of the success they had in the fourth quarter last week against Nebraska, using the run game to ultimately come back and win the game.
No matter who is under center for Oregon, whether it is Dylan Raiola or Brock Thomas making their second start of the season, there should be more opportunities downfield. Thomas is clearly limited in his ability to push the ball, but Raiola could force Illinois' defense to respect both facets of the offense on the ground and through the air. There are creative pressures that Cooper can disguise and scheme to throw at Oregon's quarterbacks and inexperienced offensive line, but even with some of that creativity, the Illini defensive line has not found much success this season, managing just five sacks to this point.
Illinois also only has three takeaways this season, so there is less of a threat when it comes to Raiola's decision-making and occasional carelessness with the ball in his hands. This is a game where Oregon's offense can absolutely get right and put up a bunch of points, so long as the Ducks play sound and don't try to force the action and let the home crowd make an impact on the game.
What should we expect?
I expect the Illini to stick to the 3-3 stack and try to find ways to get after the quarterback. Illinois could be extra aggressive up front to help support their own backup quarterback, Michael Clayton II, much like Oregon's defense has improved its play since Moore has been sidelined. That could be a point of emphasis after the Illini had the bye week to prepare for the Ducks, hoping to create more turnovers and short fields for the offense.
I think Oregon will try to take advantage of Illinois' deficiencies against the pass, but the battle on the ground will be one to watch. The Ducks' offensive line appeared to take a step forward in the second half against Nebraska, but Illinois has great tacklers and experienced eyes in the second and third levels of the defense that are great fits against the run, so it could develop into a very physical battle on the ground.
Oregon has the assets to score quickly and often against Illinois, even with just decent quarterback play, so it will come down to whether the Illini are able to force turnovers and make the Ducks beat themselves. Oregon will also be relying on freshmen receivers like Messiah Hampton, Jalen Lott and Gatlin Bair, so the Ducks will need to spread the defense out and make the simple plays to win. The Ducks don't have to score fast; they just need to find ways to score touchdowns instead of field goals, which has been a struggle lately.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: What should the Oregon Ducks expect from Illinois' defense?
