The Oregon Ducks certainly looked better on Friday night in an 84-0 win over the Portland State Vikings, but as Dan Lanning stated after the game, that's how things were expected to go against an FCS school in the non-conference part of the season.
Going forward, though, the real tests begin for the Ducks, starting with a massive game against the USC Trojans this coming Saturday, with a lot on the line. It could end up being season-defining for both teams, win or lose, and have a major role to play in the College Football Playoff race.
After a loss to Oklahoma State in Week 2, the Ducks did well to get back on the horse this past week, though it's hard to take anything away from the outcome.
Ultimately, the national media appeared to take notice,
bumping Oregon up two spots to No. 16 in the US LBM Coaches Poll,and one spot in the AP Top 25 to No. 20. ESPN's Football Power Index also moved the Ducks ahead of USC and improved their win percentage against all but one team on their schedule.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Week 4 at USC Trojans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 54.1%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 41.8%
Analysis: The game between Oregon and USC was billed as a headliner before the season started, and it's somehow gotten even more interesting over the past two weeks. With the Ducks' loss to Oklahoma State and the Trojans' narrow win over Rutgers, neither fan base is quite sure what to make of their team, and a lot of questions will be answered in this primetime matchup in Los Angeles.
Week 6 vs. UCLA Bruins
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 85.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 82.7%
Analysis: The Ducks picked up some confidence here, according to the FPI. UCLA has looked solid so far this season, but there is still room to go before they can be up near the top teams of the conference. I think this will end up being a fun game, but as for an upset, I don't see it at this current moment.
Week 7 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 73.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 66.5%
Analysis: Nebraska continues to impress, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and while I don't think this is going to be an ultra-competitive game, I do think that it will be closer than we expected before the season started.
Week 8 at Illinois Fighting Illini
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 73.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 72.0%
Analysis: I have a feeling this game might be a bit trickier than fans are expecting at the outset. Illinois is a solid team, and going on the road seems to be a struggle for this Oregon team, at least early on. Again, we will wait to see where Oregon's season is headed at this juncture of the season, but this could end up being a competitive game.
Week 9 vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 84.4%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 90.6%
Analysis: The only game on the schedule where Oregon's win percentage actually dropped after Week 3. Northwestern looks very impressive so far, and the duo of Aiden Chiles and Chip Kelly has been fruitful so far. We will see how sustainable that is, but at this point in the season, we can at least prepare for an entertaining showdown on Halloween night.
Week 10 at Ohio State Buckeyes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 16.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 10.4%
Analysis: Ohio State showed nothing in Week 3 that makes you think they aren't among the best teams in the nation, and assuming that Oregon can handle business and get back to competent play over the next month, this game should remain as one of the marquee matchups of the year. However, ESPN doesn't have much faith in the Ducks' ability to go on the road to the Horseshoe and win it.
Week 11 vs. Michigan Wolverines
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 73.6%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 69.3%
Analysis: Michigan has been a hard team to figure out so far this year, but it feels safe to say that they haven't looked as good as expected with Kyle Whittingham at the helm. By the time November rolls around, they could be a completely different team with more cohesiveness, but at this point, I think Oregon should be able to walk out with a win.
Week 12 at Michigan State Spartans
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 79.7%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 76.9%
Analysis: Credit to Michigan State, they've played well so far this year, and stood tall against Notre Dame this weekend in a tough game. I think the talent disparity will be there against the Ducks, but with it being a trap game on a short week in East Lansing, you never know.
Week 13 vs. Washington Huskies
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 87.1%
Previous FPI Win Percentage: 83.7%
Analysis: I don't think it's harsh to say that Washington hasn't met its standard yet this year through three weeks, and while there is a ton of time for things to turn around and get better, I don't expect this to be a year with a classic Ducks-Huskies matchup.
Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 1.8%
Previous FPI %: 4.4%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 9.2%
Previous FPI %: 15.1%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 20.6%
Previous FPI %: 54.3%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 3.0%
Previous FPI %: 10.3%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 1.3%
Previous FPI %: 4.8%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon sees win percentage jump vs. USC Trojans in ESPN FPI
