Two great defenses and two offenses that have slumped this season will meet in Eugene. The No. 16 Oregon Ducks will play host to the Michigan Wolverines for just the second time ever, as the Ducks look to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The Ducks have overcome struggles on offense to begin the season, turning to Jay Johnson and finding success with Dylan Raiola under center. Michigan is hoping for a similar effect, firing offensive coordinator Jason Beck this week after he guided the Wolverines to one of the worst offensive performances in the nation.
Yet, the Wolverines' defense is among the nation's best, and Oregon's dominance on the road in a win last week over Ohio State could continue back at Autzen Stadium, potentially setting the stage
for a low-scoring defensive battle this weekend.
Michigan and Oregon are meeting for just the second time as Big Ten opponents and the second time in Eugene. Some of the biggest wins in program history for the Ducks have come against the Wolverines, and while a win on Saturday might not be of the same magnitude, it will keep the Ducks in the hunt for the conference title.
Plenty has been made of the NIL spending between the two programs this week, as Dan Lanning and Kyle Whittingham have traded both praise and veiled jabs regarding recruiting prowess. No matter the budget for each program, there will be plenty of blue-chip talent on the field this weekend, so who has the edge?
Let's dive into the numbers with each team's projected starters and take a look at the "Tale of the Tape" for the matchup. We will see if we can get a sense of how this game will play out on Saturday afternoon for the Ducks at home against the Wolverines.
Dylan Raiola vs. Tommy Carr
Edge: Oregon
Michigan is expected to start Tommy Carr this week once again, but Bryce Underwood is also expected to play in some fashion. Either way, Dylan Raiola is the easy choice here. After being benched against UCLA, Raiola has grown every week and continued to play well against high-caliber defenses. He has gotten fortunate a few times to avoid turnovers, and Michigan's front seven and secondary are both capable of forcing him into mistakes, but Raiola has proven to be able to overcome great defenses and lead Oregon to explosive plays, which neither Michigan quarterback has done.
Oregon RBs vs. Michigan RBs
Edge: Oregon
The Michigan backfield is in an odd place. Savion Hiter and Jordan Marshall were supposed to be one of the two backfield duos in the country this season, but not much has materialized. Both have started to lose carries in recent weeks to Bryson Kuzdzal, who also lost a fumble last week. No matter who gets the carries here, I feel better about Oregon finding a way to run the ball against a tough Michigan front, even with Jordon Davison remaining out. Dierre Hill Jr. and Brandon Smith have been great lately, whereas Michigan hasn't had much traction on the ground all season.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. Michigan Pass Catchers
Edge: Oregon
This is an easy one. Oregon has a potent passing attack that has only grown stronger in recent weeks with Raiola giving his wideouts more chances in Jay Johnson's offense. Dakorien Moore has become the go-to target that fans hoped he would be as a five-star talent, while Evan Stewart and Jamari Johnson help the Ducks stretch the field. I would expect Jeremiah McClellan to be more involved this week after taking it slow in his return last week, but JalenLott is also very capable. JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh are a great duo as well, but given the uncertainty around Michigan's offense right now, their ceilings are much lower. Hogan Hansen didn't play last week, but if the Wolverines can get him back, he is a solid third option at tight end.
Oregon Defense vs. Michigan Defense
Edge: Oregon
Both defenses have been stellar this season and played well lately, but I think Oregon has been better against better competition this season. The pass rush certainly took a hit this week with the loss of Teitum Tuioti, but the Ducks have enough depth and veteran experience up front to pick up some of the slack. Both secondaries have been tremendous lately, but I think the Ducks are the better unit and are more capable of getting off the field on critical downs. Michigan hasn't played many quality offenses this season, so the numbers might be inflated a bit, and at home, the Ducks' defense has played very well this season. I'll take Oregon's defense, but Michigan could make this game a low-scoring battle.
When Oregon Has the Ball
When Michigan Has the Ball
Who Has the Edge?
Lean: Oregon
Not a lot has gone Michigan's way this season, and while a change in offensive coordinator could lead to more success on that side of the ball, this doesn't seem like the spot for such a change. Oregon has all the momentum right now and should be able to find enough success on offense to win this game, even if it is low-scoring.
The Ducks will miss Tuioti on the edge against two mobile quarterbacks, but they could still force the Wolverines to drop back and throw often if the ground game is shut down between the tackles. Oregon's secondary should be tested by Buchanan and Marsh, but the Ducks have a good enough pass rush to make Carr play fast and make a mistake or two.
It will be important for Raiola to continue to play confidently and avoid giving Michigan short fields by way of turnovers or negative yardage. Raiola hasn't turned the ball over in his last two starts and kept Oregon on track, but the big down this week will be first down, hoping to keep the Ducks on schedule and avoid the long distances on third down that they frequently found themselves in against Ohio State.
Oregon and Michigan both have a ton of talent and rely at times on players winning their matchups in space, but I think Oregon's roster is a class above and could frustrate the Wolverines in all three phases. Michigan hasn't faced a big-play offense like Oregon this season, albeit holding Indiana to just 13 points with an injured quarterback. The Ducks' playmakers should continue to show up and help Oregon pull away to another win, even if the scoreboard doesn't put up a ton of points.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Tale of the Tape for Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines
