Here we go. Lincoln Riley is now on very thin ice at USC football after the typically sloppy, undisciplined loss to Dan Lanning and Oregon. We all saw how inconsistent and unimposing Oregon was this time. This was not a case of Oregon being an elite team and USC not having the stars who could keep up with the Ducks. This time, it was a matter of USC having a real chance to beat Oregon but once again committing terrible mistakes to let the game slip away. USC athletic director Jennifer Cohen has to confront the task she hoped she would never have to deal with: Negotiate the endgame and eventual exit for Lincoln Riley.
No point in firing Lincoln Riley now - that can wait
There is no point in firing Lincoln Riley today or this week. We can all see this is a sinking ship, but USC bothered to give Riley a fifth
season in 2026. Gary Patterson did not come to Los Angeles to take over the full football program. He came here at Riley's invitation to help out. The other reason why Cohen and USC shouldn't fire Riley right now is that they should wait until USC loses its third game of the season, the game which officially knocks the Trojans out of the College Football Playoff. That third loss could be against Ohio State on October 31. It could be at Indiana in November. It is now very likely to arrive, but until it does, Riley can be given a chance to see if he can create a Harry Houdini-like escape from this dire situation. No one expects he will, but he was given the 2026 season. This year can be allowed to run its course.
Lincoln Riley buyout is currently prohibitive
USC insiders know that Lincoln Riley's current buyout number, in the area of 70-72 million dollars, is prohibitive. USC can't pay that large a sum. Cohen has to get in her office and consult major donors and power brokers inside the program.
Reduce the buyout number
Cohen has to map out a significant buyout reduction which enables USC to absorb some costs but retain enough money to be able to hire an elite replacement as head coach. This is also part of why USC shouldn't fire Riley during the season. Letting this season plays out will make it easier to negotiate terms for an endgame in late November or early December. Cohen will have to play hardball, but she has to be smart about it.
Why giving Lincoln Riley a sixth season in 2027 makes no sense
We keep seeing the penalties and the dumb plays that get in the way of USC's ascent to the top of college football. This is Year 5 under the same head coach. Lincoln Riley has had five whole years to get this thing right. Can you begin to imagine Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, or other blue-blood programs giving a coach five seasons without making the College Football Playoff? No way. Not a chance. No. Lincoln Riley continues to fail, and USC cannot continue to tolerate failure. Other programs wouldn't. USC and Cohen not putting their foot down (as soon as the Trojans lose their third game this year) would be tantamount to tolerating more failure.
Setting the standard
When we contemplate why Lincoln Riley's time needs to be up at USC, consider that he finally did make what were - on paper - the right moves regarding his football program. He brought in an experienced defensive mind, Gary Patterson, as coordinator. He brought in a new strength coach, Trumain Carroll. He brought in a new linebacker coach, Mike Ekeler, when Rob Ryan failed in 2025. Even when the "right" moves get made, the overall product doesn't significantly improve. Why? It's obvious: The guy at the top, the guy who creates the culture and sets the tone for everything else happening in the program, is still in charge. That's what USC has to root out. That's where USC needs to change more than anywhere else.
Behind the scenes
While USC doesn't have to hire a new football coach now, the process of working toward a negotiated buyout settlement - quietly getting the gears to turn - can focus Jen Cohen's attention on a replacement coach. We're not going to have a full discussion about a replacement until Riley loses a third game, but Cohen does have to begin to map out that plan. Who is her first call? Second? Third? Fourth? Those discussions should be happening behind closed doors, with money being part of the picture.
Kalen DeBoer
One name to keep an eye on for USC when the time comes to replace Lincoln Riley: Kalen DeBoer. Like Lincoln Riley, DeBoer is an offense-first coach who, at his best, gets on the same page with his quarterback and is able to unlock an offense's full potential. We mention DeBoer for one reason only: Jen Cohen hired DeBoer at Washington to replace Jimmy Lake, who failed in a brief tenure following the departure of previous head coach Chris Petersen. If DeBoer's seat gets hot at Alabama, he could find an escape route to USC and reunite with Cohen. We will see what the coming months bring.
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This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Lincoln Riley buyout is prohibitive - so USC, Jen Cohen must reduce it
