It is unusual for a college football season to enter the middle of October with the Oregon Ducks and Dan Lanning having worse College Football Playoff odds than the USC Trojans and Lincoln Riley. To be clear, USC does not have great playoff odds, but Oregon's chances are on life support after a 17-15 loss to the UCLA Bruins.
Dan Lanning and Oregon in trouble
Oregon has two losses as of October 12. The Ducks must run the table to have any chance of making the 2026 College Football Playoff. One of Oregon's remaining games is on the road at Ohio State. The Ducks, one could say, are roasted. It would be a massive surprise if they make the playoff. The odds right now have to be below five percent.
This wouldn't have happened with Will Stein
Look at what Will Stein is doing at Kentucky with the Wildcats. He's beating Texas A&M
and LSU and has UK playing good ball in Year 1 on the job. Can you imagine Oregon cratering on offense like this with Stein? It shows that the offensive coordinator spot specifically, and coordinators generally, mean so much to college football success (or failure).
Drew Mehringer
The obvious pothole Dan Lanning stepped into this year was hiring from within his program, a "loyalty hire," if you will. Lanning promoted Drew Mehringer on his staff to the offensive coordinator position. It has been a disaster. Oregon's offense has looked far worse than expected going into the season.
UCLA loss
On Saturday, Oregon's offense essentially scored only nine points, since six points came from a touchdown scored on a drive starting at the UCLA 1-yard line. That's essentially a defensive touchdown, though not technically on the scoresheet. Oregon's offense couldn't have played much worse. Again: Would this have happened under the elite coordinators Lanning previously hired, Will Stein or Kenny Dillingham?
Lincoln Riley and Alex Grinch
USC has never recovered from Lincoln Riley bringing in Alex Grinch as his defensive coordinator from Oklahoma and then retaining him for the 2023 season after the disastrous Cotton Bowl loss to Tulane. The "loyalty hire" is not the right hire unless the loyalist is an elite coach in his own right. Drew Mehringer is to Oregon what Alex Grinch was to USC. Dan Lanning is paying the price for making the kind of move which has severely hurt Lincoln Riley's career and reputation.
The future
You can bet that Lanning will conduct a national search for his 2027 offensive coordinator. It's fun for USC fans to see Oregon in agony like this, but the sobering reality is that the Ducks will probably be better next year if only because Lanning is too smart to not hire a quality coordinator.
On the other hand ...
There is a more pessimistic view for Oregon, though, one USC fans hope will come to fruition: Oregon might have missed its big chance this year in a Big Ten which is down. When Dante Moore goes to the NFL and it's Dylan Raiola's show in 2027, the Ducks might not have a quarterback who can deliver elite results, even with an upgrade at offensive coordinator.
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This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: Dan Lanning stumbles because of Lincoln Riley-style mistake | Opinion
