There is a definite "now or never" feeling in and around the USC football program. Lincoln Riley has arrived at what feels like a "last chance saloon" against Oregon this week. Part of the very uneasy feeling consuming the Trojans is the fear that this next stretch of games will be much like the 2023 season. We don't enjoy making this comparison. We don't like that you now have to remember that awful year. However, the parallels are impossible to ignore:
Early cupcake blowouts
USC looked really good in 2023 against Stanford and Nevada. USC looked really good in 2026 against Fresno State. There were moments early in each season when it seemed the Trojans were on the right track.
Late September road struggles
2023 USC went to Arizona State and Colorado and won ugly, sloppy games. 2026 USC went to Rutgers
and won an ugly, sloppy game. The Trojans remained unbeaten but convinced no one they were ready for the big time.
2023 Notre Dame
USC arrived at its huge 2023 game at Notre Dame and got punked. Caleb Williams was running for his life. The Irish were unquestionably better and tougher than USC. The fear is that Oregon will deliver a similar result. The hope is that the Trojans can make a sharp right turn and go in a very different direction compared to 2023.
Domino effect
Once 2023 USC started losing big games, it continued to do so. Utah, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA followed the Notre Dame loss, giving Lincoln Riley a 7-5 record. If he goes 7-5 this year, he's gone. Done. Toast. Is USC about to bring the Riley era to an end in 2026?
2023 Washington game vs 2026 Oregon game
The 2023 Washington game was the 52-42 loss in which USC wasted a great Caleb Williams performance. One can easily imagine something similar on Saturday against Oregon, with Jayden Maiava lighting up the Coliseum and scoring 42 points but losing because the defense gets eviscerated. If USC allowed 35 to Rutgers, what's Oregon going to do?
Manhood moment
It really is put-up-or-shut-up time for Lincoln Riley and USC. No more whining, no more explanations or excuses, no more word salad to avoid assigning accountability to the person at the top of the pyramid. Play physical football. Play smart. Show resilience when things get tough. Sacrifice. Hold together under pressure. Win.
UCLA writer weighs in
"USC is 4-0 but they’re not riding an upward trajectory as they head into an absolutely crucial game against Oregon this week," UCLA Wire editor Dylan McNeill wrote. "Rutgers held their own against the Trojans even if USC never trailed in the game. The new-look USC defense wasn’t firing on all cylinders, giving up 460 yards of offense to a Rutgers team that lost to UMass earlier this month. While it’s not the performance that the team will want heading into the Oregon game, it will be USC’s first chance to play through a bit of controversy."
Expect a shootout
"At least the Trojan offense continued to look great," McNeill continued. "Jayden Maiava played another clean game but it's hard to get past USC defense getting only one sack and allowing 35 points to a weak Rutgers program. A tight win against Rutgers doesn’t doom any chances of a potential playoff run but it was signs of a familiar past. A past where the USC defense couldn’t get the stops to make a serious run."
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This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: The big fear for Lincoln Riley and USC: 2026 will turn out like 2023
