The 7-2 Duke Blue Devils have a 35% chance of making the College Football Playoff, the 12th-best according to Polymarket. That staggering statistic comes from the huge opportunity the team has this weekend as it travels to Coral Gables to face the ACC-leading Miami Hurricanes.
Here are the keys to one of the biggest games in Duke football history.
Nate Sheppard vs. Miami's run defense
With Malachi Toney out for Miami, Nate Sheppard is undoubtedly the best player who will take the field in this game Saturday, and he’s been on an absolute tear recently after getting healthy.
In the last two games, the sophomore running back has totaled 350 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns- making him a cheat code.
What makes this matchup compelling is how good the Hurricanes have been against the run.
Miami ranks No. 1 in the country in rush defense, holding Notre Dame to 93 yards last week.
But the Canes haven’t met a back like Sheppard this year, and this will be a matchup that likely goes a long way in deciding a winner.
No Malachi Toney
Miami’s outstanding receiver ranks top-3 in the nation in receiving yards, receptions, and receiving touchdowns, something the Hurricanes will sorely miss this week.
And to make matters worse for Miami, the Blue Devils have a week of tape on how the offense operates without its All-American pass-catcher.
He'll be replaced by a committee for Miami the rest of the way, however, a familiar face will get a lot of the targets in Toney’s absence: former Blue Devil Cooper Barkate.
After eclipsing 1,000 yards last year at Duke, Barkate followed Mensah to Miami, where he’s been largely an understudy for Toney. Now, the fifth-year player will take centerstage in a high-flying Hurricane offense, and will face a defense that practiced against him every day for a year.
In his first game in his new role, Barkate had a season-high nine catches for 75 yards, and a pair of touchdowns in his squad’s upset loss at Notre Dame.
Other receivers who’ll look to help pick up slack are Vandrevius Jacobs and Daylyn Upshaw, who have a combined 479 yards on the year. Standout tight end Elija Lofton will also be a player to watch after he led the Canes in receiving yards a week ago with a season-high 113.
Third down
Miami boasts one of the very best offenses in the country on third down, converting on 52.9%, which is good for fifth nationally. The Hurricanes’ ability to get out of a jam on the money down is a major factor in how they’ve gotten this far relatively unscathed.
Prior to this Saturday, Miami’s toughest opponent on third down was Clemson, which ranks 20th in third-down defense. Duke comes in at an impressive third, behind UCLA and Nebraska.
This is one of those unstoppable force versus immovable object inflection points that could ultimately decide who wins this thing.
Turnovers
These teams both pride themselves on keeping the ball out of harm's way with both squads being tied for fifth in the country in turnovers lost with five each.
Quarterbacks Darian Mensah and Walker Eget have combined for just five interceptions on the year, while the teams have combined for just three total fumbles.
With both teams looking to gain any possible advantage, it's possible that an uncharacteristic mistake in the turnover department could turn the tides of this game.
What the Blue Devils could have boding well for them is the fact that the cracks could be beginning to form for Mensah, who threw his second pick of the year last week.
The Darian Mensah effect
By now, we all know the story about former Duke, now Miami quarterback Darian Mensah. But what impact does that potential bad blood have on the field?
This is a massive wild card in the game because the answer could range from a huge advantage for either team to having little to no impact.
Mensah could wind up trying to do too much in an attempt to overcompensate for the noise surrounding his Kevin Durant style exit from Durham, while the Duke defense could be out for blood.
Duke and Miami will face off at 12 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium and will be broadcast on ABC.
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Duke vs. Miami: 5 keys to the Blue Devils, Hurricanes matchup
