If it weren’t for Indiana’s historic run to the national title last season, the feel-good story of college football would likely have been Manny Diaz leading Duke to its first outright ACC title since 1962.
The Blue Devils benefited from a five-way tie for second place, earning a spot in the conference title game, where Darian Mensah and company outlasted Virginia 27-20 in overtime.
Unfortunately, Mensah and leading wide receiver Cooper Barkate departed for Miami via the transfer portal this offseason; the Blue Devils also lost some key defensive players, and pundits give Diaz’s squad an extremely low chance of repeating as conference champions.
How low? ESPN’s Bill Connelly ran a million simulations of the 2026 college football season and found
that Duke has just a 2.0 percent chance of retaining the ACC title trophy.
What’s amazing is that rival UNC, coming off a 4-8 season in Bill Belichick’s first year, has slightly better odds at 3.2 percent.
Think that is bad? Connelly doesn’t even list Duke’s odds of making the College Football Playoff because they were so low.
It’s been the story of the preseason as Duke enters its 2026 schedule with low expectations. The Blue Devils will see if they can do anything about that starting Saturday when they open the season against Tulane.
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: ESPN simulation gives Duke extremely low chance of repeating ACC title
