Duke will look to rebound this week after back-to-back losses have completely reset expectations for the season. Here are the keys to Friday night’s ACC Championship rematch at Virginia.
Nate Sheppard’s status
After the roller coaster of chaos that the last two weeks have been, the Blue Devils will need to try their best to get back to basics, and that starts with the ground game.
Star running back Nate Sheppard was limited due to injury against North Carolina last week, and it showed. The Tar Heels honed in on him, holding Sheppard to just 77 yards.
A healthy bell cow back would be just what the doctor ordered for Manny Diaz’s team, as UVA allows 152.7 yards per game on the ground, good for 88th in the country.
Third down
Third down is always a key factor in deciding which team
wins, and there’s a paper-popping stat heading into this matchup that heavily leans in Duke’s favor.
The Cavaliers rank a staggering 120th in the nation in third-down conversion rate, while the Blue Devils slot in at ninth in the FBS in opponent third-down conversion rate at 29.2%.
If Duke’s defense can exploit this point of weakness, the Blue Devils’ chances of winning could rise drastically.
Limiting turnovers
Duke is plus-two in the turnover margin so far, but will need to shore up in that department against a Virginia squad that ranks 15th in the nation in turnover margin.
The Cavaliers haven’t been as opportunistic in recent weeks, but this is still something to monitor.
Penalties
Stressing Duke’s heavy penalization throughout this season has become a mainstay of this column at this point.
The Blue Devils, who rank 123th in penalty yardage per game this season, have seen flags derail them all year long, especially in their loss against Georgia Tech.
Duke has to start cleaning these up if it wants to start stacking wins the rest of the way. UVA checks in at 38th in this statistic nationally.
The red zone
Virginia has been awful in the red zone this year, and Duke has the defense to exploit that.
The Cavaliers rank 124th in red zone offense, scoring on 74.1% of trips, while Duke’s red zone defense is 42nd in FBS.
This large gap presents itself as a great opportunity for the Blue Devils to steal some possessions and keep UVA off the board.
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Duke vs. Virginia: 5 keys to the Blue Devils, Cavaliers matchup
