Duke opened the 2026 college football season with a resounding 17-3 victory over Tulane. The Blue Devils were led by running back Nate Sheppard, who rushed for 227 yards and two touchdowns on 35 attempts, while the Duke defense kept the Green Wave in check, allowing just 54 rushing yards.
The task gets tougher for Manny Diaz’s team this week as they travel to Champaign, Ill., to battle Illinois.
How will the rest of the 2026 season play out for Diaz and his squad? While the game isn’t played on paper, here’s how ESPN’s Football Power Index sees the schedule going for the Blue Devils and the chances of them winning each game.
(Ratings as of Thursday, Sept. 10.)
Week 2: at Illinois - 38.6 percent
This Saturday's matchup features two teams who love to run the ball and play defense.
It could be low scoring.
Week 3: vs. Stanford - 82.4 percent
The Cardinal didn't put up much of a fight against Miami. Don't expect Duke to have many problems with them either.
Week 4: vs. William & Mary - 97.5 percent
Week 6: at Georgia Tech - 47.0 percent
It was a bad loss for Brent Key and the Yellow Jackets to open the season against Colorado.
Week 7: vs. UNC - 50.7 percent
The Battle for the Bell is shaping up to be better than most thought heading into the season.
Week 8: at Virginia - 26.4 percent
Are the Cavaliers for real? We will find out more next week when they host West Virginia.
Week 9: vs. Boston College - 81.0 percent
Week 10: at NC State - 62.1 percent
Dave Doeren's days as head coach of the Wolfpack might be coming to an end.
Week 11: at Miami - 5.4 percent
Darian Mensah looked great in the opener, and his connection with Malachi Toney could be one of the most lethal in college football.
Week 12: vs. Clemson - 51.1 percent
A week ago, the Blue Devils were given a 27.5 percent chance of beating the Tigers. After how Dabo Swinney's team looked against LSU in the opener, opinions have changed surrounding Clemson.
Week 13: at Wake Forest - 46.9 percent
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Projecting rest of Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN FPI rankings
