For the second time in three years under Manny Diaz, Duke has started the season 3-0, as the Blue Devils took care of Tulane and Stanford while pulling off an upset at Illinois in Week 2.
An improved defense and the running of star back Nate Sheppard have been vital to the successful early stretch. Sheppard leads the nation in all-purpose yards (196.7 per game) and rushing yards (176.00 per game), and ties Florida’s Jadan Baugh and UCLA’s Wayne Knight with eight touchdowns.
After Saturday’s matchup against William & Mary, the Blue Devils have a bye before returning to conference play for the rest of the season, and according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Duke will enter all but two games as favored.
Here is how ESPN’s FPI has the rest of the season
playing out.
(Ratings as of Tuesday, Sept. 21.)
Week 4: William & Mary - 99.0 percent
The Tribe should be fodder for the Blue Devils this Saturday, but don't expect Duke to overlook them. Early trouble in games against Elon the past two seasons shows what can happen when you aren't exactly focused.
Week 6: at Georgia Tech - 64.5 percent
I don't know what to make of the Yellow Jackets, but a home against an undefeated Duke team could be motivation for them.
Week 7: UNC - 67.8 percent
The Tar Heels came out of a lightning delay at Clemson and totally collapsed, losing a winnable game in what was an off-the-field nightmare week for Bill Belichick's program.
Week 8: at Virginia - 43.8 percent
Duke's odds rose from 27.3 percent last week to the current percentage after the Cavaliers' loss to West Virginia.
Week 9: Boston College - 89.6 percent
The Eagles struggled against FCS member Maine in a 22-16 win. That doesn't inspire much in Bill O'Brien's squad.
Week 10: at NC State - 65.9 percent
The Wolfpack had a 99.9 percent chance of winning this past Saturday's game against Vanderbilt with the ball and less than 10 seconds left. Everyone knows what happened next.
Week 11: at Miami - 10.7 percent
Miami wasn't exactly dominant in a victory over Wake Forest, but it is still difficult to see many teams battling the Hurricanes outside of a few. Can Duke be one of them?
Week 12: Clemson - 65.2 percent
The odds for a second straight win over the Tigers continue to go up as Dabo Swinney's team continues to struggle.
Week 13: at Wake Forest - 58.1 percent
Could a win against the Demon Deacons possibly be what puts Duke in the ACC title game for the second year?
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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Projecting rest of Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN FPI rankings
