For the first time this year, Texas is an underdog. The No. 6 Longhorns go on the road Saturday night to take on LSU at Death Valley in Baton Rouge. Given the up and down nature of the 2026 version of Texas, UT could lose. If the Longhorns lose at LSU, can they still make the College Football Playoff?
Obviously, that depends on a lot of factors. Primarily is, how far would Texas fall after a loss? Indiana fell five spots this week and the Hoosiers didn't even play. So that question is a little difficult to project. But there are some early clues the college football playoff committee has given us.
Miami dropped six spots from No. 1 to No. 7 this week. Kentucky dropped five places from No. 6 to No. 11 after losing to Tennessee. So far, five or
six spots seems to be the number the committee will drop teams for a loss. If you take worst case scenario, Texas would drop from No. 6 to No. 12.
As you know, the top eleven spots make the tournament. No. 12 is left out on the bubble. But if Texas is No. 12 with two weeks to go, that's not the worst outcome. Even if Texas lands at No. 13, UT has a couple of weeks to move up.
There will be more losses in the teams above the Longhorns. Texas Tech could easily lose to Oklahoma State. Indiana might not beat USC. Utah has to travel to ranked Arizona. Notre Dame better not look at SMU as a gimme. And so on.
If Texas is going to lose another game, the best loss would be against LSU. If they lose to the Tigers, they still have a better than 50/50 shot at making it in. But Texas better not get blown out or lose to Arkansas or Texas A&M down the stretch.
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This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Can Texas still make CFP if Longhorns lose at LSU?
