2026 Longhorns Schedule: Best/Worst case scenarios for each Texas game

While the Longhorns might be better in 2026 than in 2025, Texas' schedule is one of the toughest in the nation. We have detailed UT's most dangerous games this year and the three games the Longhorns simply must win. But there are good and bad results and there are worst case and best case outcomes for each game.

Of Texas' eleven regular season games, the Longhorns face seven ranked opponents. UT's slate is a gauntlet that even great teams would struggle with.

The Horns have games at LSU, at Texas A&M and a Week 2 tilt against No. 1 Ohio State in Austin. Texas could lose any or all of those games and still sneak into the college football playoffs. But optics matter. Especially compared to other programs fighting for a CFP spot.

Here is a look at

best case and worst case scenarios for each Texas Longhorns game:

Sept. 5: Texas State Bobcats (Austin)

Sep 13, 2025; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Texas State Bobcats head coach G. J. Kinne before the game between Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas State Bobcats. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 98.4%

Best Case: Texas scores on every possession and the defense pitches a shutout. Arch Manning has huge numbers and is a spectator on the bench by the end of the third quarter.

Worst Case: The Longhorns offense looks pedestrian. Sarkisian has said more than once this fall that the offense has looked sloppy. If that carries over into this game with Manning and Company struggling to score, that will be bad.

Sept. 12: Ohio State Buckeyes (Austin)

Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day reacts against the Texas Longhorns in the second half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 53.7%

Best Case: A win by ten or more would really set the Longhorns up for a legitimate run at the national title. If Texas can get a convincing win over the No. 1 Buckeyes, confidence will be through the roof.

Worst Case: A blowout loss where it looks like Texas has actually gone backwards from last year's 14-7 loss in Columbus. The questions and the pressure will only get worse.

Sept. 19 UTSA Roadrunners (Austin)

Nov 6, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; UTSA Roadrunners head coach Jeff Traylor against the South Florida Bulls during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 98.6%

Best Case: This game is a lot like the Texas State matchup, except the Roadrunners aren't as good as the Bobcats. A blowout where everyone looks dominant.

Worst Case: Last year's 27-10 win over UTEP is a good template. Texas didn't look good. Manning didn't look good. UTEP only won one more game the rest of the way, yet UT had a lot of trouble putting them away. If that happens again in the final non-conference game before the SEC schedule begins, it will be rough in Austin.

Sept. 26: Tennessee Volunteers (Knoxville)

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel during the Vols' spring football practice in Knoxville on March 17, 2026.

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 75.5%

Best Case: A win by 21-points or more. The Longhorns go on the road for the first time and crush the hopeful Volunteers in Neyland Stadium.

Worst Case: Last year's Florida game would be a good comparison. In 2025, Texas opened its SEC slate on the road against a rebuilding Florida team that eventually fired its coach. A loss to Tennessee would be a big blow and, like the Gators game, seriously hurt Texas' chances at the CFP.

Oct. 10 Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas)

Head coach Brent Venables walks on the field during an Oklahoma (OU) football practice in Norman, Okla., on Wednesday, March 25, 2026.

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 75.6%

Best Case: A convincing win over UT's Red River Rivals is always the best case scenario. If Texas wins by 14-points or more it will be a good day at the offense for Sark's team.

Worst Case: A bad loss. OU believes they are on the rise and are ranked in the preseason top 10. A big loss to the Sooners would prove them right.

Oct. 17: Florida Gators (Austin)

Jul 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Florida Gators head coach Jon Sumrall speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 87.8%

Best Case: Avenge last year's crippling loss in a dominant way by hammering the Gators by three touchdowns.

Worst Case: A loss at home to Florida would be devistating, but it can happen if the Longhorns play like last year.

Oct. 24: Ole Miss Rebels (Austin)

Jan 8, 2026; Glendale, AZ, USA; Mississippi Rebels head coach Pete Golding against the Miami Hurricanes during the 2026 Fiesta Bowl and semifinal game of the College Football Playoff at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 83.8%

Best Case: Limiting Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels offense to 10-points or less, while Arch Manning and the offense put up 21-points or more.

Worst Case: Ole Miss shows the college football playoff committee it is better than Texas with a big win at DKR. That would be bad.

Oct. 31: Mississippi State Bulldogs (Austin)

Nov 28, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby looks on before the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 95.8%

Best Case: Domination. The 35-0 kind of domination over one of the SEC's worst programs.

Worst Case: Any loss to a lower tier conference team would be devastating. Especially at home.

Nov. 11: Missouri Tigers (Columbia)

Nov 15, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Eliah Drinkwitz reacts to play against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first half of the game at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 81.9%

Best Case: An easy Saturday in Columbia. Erasing any doubts with a big 21-point win.

Worst Case: Unless Texas is undefeated, losing this classic trap game would probably end UT's CFP ambitions and a bad omen before a tough stretch run.

Nov. 14: LSU Tigers (Baton Rouge)

Dec 1, 2025; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU president Wade Rousse, left, LSU new head coach Lane Kiffin and LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry stand together at South Stadium Club at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 64.0%

Best Case: A solid win over the fighting Lane Kiffins would be huge for Texas as the end of the season approaches. It might also sway Five-star WR recruit Easton Royal to stick with his Longhorns commitment and not flip to in-state LSU.

Worst Case: A humiliating loss at night in Death Valley would haunt Texas and Steve Sarkisian for years.

Nov. 21: Arkansas Razorbacks (Austin)

Jul 23, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Ryan Silverfield speaks to the press during SEC Football Kickoff Media Day at the Tampa Marriott. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 95.5%

Best Case: This game is very similar to the Mississippi State game, except the Hogs are a designated rival. UT crushes Arkansas by four or more TDs.

Worst Case: Any loss to a poor Arkansas team at home is worst case.

Nov. 27: Texas A&M Aggies (College Station)

Nov 30, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko reacts during the second half against the Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns defeated the Aggies 17-7. at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor: Texas 65.1%

Best Case: Texas' domination of the rival Texas A&M continues. Manning has a signature game and the Aggies cry for another year. Best, best case would be if A&M misses the CFP because of this game.

Worst Case: A loss of any kind to A&M is apocalyptic. More than a decade of Aggie hate pours out for months and Texas is knocked out of the playoff by the Ags.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: 2026 Longhorns Schedule: Best/Worst case scenarios for each Texas game