Why isn't Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning better than he is? It's the question that Longhorns fans have probably been wondering for a while, but certainly after Saturday's debacle in the Red River Shootout. Manning threw two critical interceptions in the fourth quarter Saturday that all but handed the Oklahoma Sooners a 27-24 win.
Is everyone just wrong about Manning? The coaches, the fans, the recruiting services, the scouts and the media all see a player that should be the best quarterback in college football. Maybe the best QB in the last few decades. But he is not that. At least, not yet. There's a very real chance he never will be. But he also can become the QB experts expected in the future.
Unreachable Expectations
The expectations for Arch Manning might
be higher than any QB in history. He was the No. 1 recruit and has the name and family legacy to go with it. He looks the part. He's big. He has a strong arm. But for some reason, two plus two isn't equalling four.
Manning has a few things working against him. One is the weight of these lofty expectations. The assumption he'll be dominant all the time is something he can never live up to, even if he was playing better than he is. If you compare him against the other three great Longhorns QBs of the 2000s, he stacks up evenly. But the world expects more.
To those who think Arch is the problem or is just an “average” QB…consider this comparison against legendary Texas QBs: pic.twitter.com/FtvCwOMP5l
— 🤘🏻 Bryan Armstrong 🎹 (@barmstrong1516) October 11, 2026
High School Competition
Manning had below average competition in high school. He went to a private high school in Louisiana. His parents didn't send him to a football prep academy like IMG or Mater Dei. He didn't grow up in high level Texas high school football, which has produced dozens of innovative offensive-minded coaches and quarterbacks. He stayed home and was a private school kid.
Manning went to Isidore Newman in New Orleans. His uncles Eli and Peyton, as well as his father Cooper, all went to Newman. While it is a great school academically, it isn't anywhere close to high level high school football. Louisiana produces great players. But almost all of those went to public schools where the level of play is much better.
This offenses in his league weren't as complex and the defensive schemes were more basic. Manning relied on his superior athleticism to win at Isidore Newman. He didn't have to read complex defenses.
Certainly, that has inhibited his growth in college. As a result, Manning's timeline might be different than a QB that comes out of Texas or Florida. Last season might have been the equivalent of a senior year in high school. This season might be more like a college freshman year. Next year? We'll see. (more on that later)
Offensive line problems
In many ways, a bigger mystery than Manning's struggles is the offensive line issues. UT's line has a future top ten NFL draft pick and a handful of veterans and transfers that should be playing much better than it is. Offensive line coach Kyle Flood is a renowned line coach. But his lines have struggled for two years straight. Texas flounders run blocking and in pass protection.
If you watch Saturday's game against OU, Manning is under pressure on almost every play. When he's not being chased and can have a couple seconds to survey the field, he is much better. Manning had some great passes in Red River. Most happened with another second or two of time.
Obviously, great quarterbacks have to deal with pressure. But sustained pressure forces mistakes.
Coaching
Is the most famous recruit to ever sign with Texas being developed properly? Is he being used properly? Sarkisian has a reputation as a quarterback guru. An offensive mind that gets QBs drafted. But is he still?
Sark has had two starting quarterbacks at Texas, Quinn Ewers and Manning. Ewers had regressed so much by the end of his third year he was drafted in the seventh round. Manning looks like he's regressing as well. He's tentative and indecisive and often ends up making the wrong choice.
Manning is a good runner. But there seem to be no plays that utilize Manning's running ability and it even seems he's discouraged by the coaches from running. That limits the New Orleans native and takes a vital weapon away from him. Arch seems to thrive in an up-tempo, hurry up offense. But UT only goes up-tempo if it is really needed.
Sarkisian has brought Texas back to relevance, but he might be the wrong voice or the wrong play-caller to get the most out of Manning.
Season isn't over yet
Here's some optimism. The season isn't over yet. When the Longhorns schedule was announced, the entire country saw it for what it was ... one of the hardest in the nation. To start the season, Texas had seven ranked opponents. To think Texas would finish the year undefeated was a pipe dream.
Oklahoma started the year in the top ten. Sure, the Sooners have struggled so far. But one of OU's losses was at Georgia. The Bulldogs are now the No. 1 team in the nation. The other Oklahoma loss was at Michigan. Even if the Wolverines are having a down year themselves, it is still tough to win at the Big House.
But Texas wasn't supposed to lose to the 2-2 Sooners. It was thought the losses would come to Ohio State or at LSU. The Red River loss gives UT very little margin for error. We saw last year that three losses will probably leave a team on the outside looking in on the College Football Playoff.
The good news is, Texas slate looks easier than it did at the beginning of the year. Florida has lost two in a row. LSU has lost two in a row. Texas A&M has lost three out of four. In fact, Ole Miss now looks like UT's toughest game and it's in Austin, where Manning plays better. Oddly, the next two toughest games on the Longhorns schedule might be Missouri and Mississippi State.
Another season in Austin
Most think Manning will turn pro after the season. Dozens of mock drafts have forecast Manning getting picked No. 1 or soon after. Even now, experts believe a team at the top of the draft will fall in love with Arch and take him earlier than his stats would suggest.
But there's a good chance Manning won't enter the 2027 NFL Draft. Even if he was lighting the college football world on fire. No Manning has ever left college early. Everyone thought his uncle Peyton would forego his senior year at Tennessee and go pro. He didn't. The same was true with Eli. The Mannings believe in staying in school until the end.
Fans should stop assuming this is Manning's last year at Texas. And if he stays for his senior season, his development should have caught up with his reputation.
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This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Why isn't Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning better?
