Los Angeles will face another disappointing team for the second week in a row as they continue to search for their first win of the season.
Here are a few reasons to be optimistic that the Chargers can topple the Texans.
Defensive regression
After ranking second in defensive EPA/play and defensive DVOA last season, Houston's defense has plummeted to 23rd in EPA/play and 17th in DVOA through eight weeks this year. That's been one of the main reasons the Texans sit at 2-5 after entering the season as sneaky Super Bowl contenders, and they're coming off a game allowing 27 points and 4 rushing touchdowns to the Giants, who started backup quarterback JJ McCarthy (although Houston did have a bye after that game and before playing the Chargers this week). With offensive
coordinator Mike McDaniel moving to the booth to try to give the offense a spark, LA might see a bit more success than they would be expected to, even before the season started in this matchup.
Running back rotation
Head coach Jim Harbaugh hinted at a change to the running back rotation when speaking to the media on Tuesday, saying that the Chargers could "go with the hot hand, so to speak" at the position after mostly keeping touches even between Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal. McDaniel also said that the team has "had some strong consideration and conversation about adjusting the exact flow" in the backfield. LA ranks 18th in rushing yards per game with 111.1 and Houston is 11th-best defensively with 98 yards per game allowed, but New York found success with a similar approach on the ground last time the Texans played. The Giants gave Cam Skattebo 17 carries, netting 124 yards, but Devin Singletary, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and quarterback Jameis Winston also recorded rushing touchdowns.
Similar struggles
As much as the Chargers have struggled to run the ball, Houston's problems have been worse after an offseason with similar messaging. The Texans signed former Colt Braden Smith and former Brown Wyatt Teller in free agency and drafted guard Keylan Rutledge in the first round (both Teller and Rutledge were favorites of Chargers fans this offseason). Rutledge, who had never played center, was moved to the pivot position, but poor results have since sent him back to guard. Meanwhile, in LA, second-round pick Jake Slaughter, who had never played guard, was repping at left guard until center Tyler Biadasz suffered a season-ending injury. The Texans are 29th in rushing yards per game at 84.7 and are still uncertain if starting running back David Montgomery, who they traded for this offseason, will play, as he's still recovering from a groin injury.
Strong out of halftime
Would you believe that Los Angeles ranks 10th in offensive EPA/play in the third quarter? As bad as the Chargers offense has been all-around, they've moved the ball out of halftime, while the Texans rank 24th in defensive EPA/play out of the break. The problem, of course, is that Los Angeles goes right back to being the league's worst offense in the fourth quarter. But if the Chargers can hang around through the first half - their defense is third in the NFL in defensive EPA/play in the opening quarter - and maybe even build a lead in the third quarter, they might be able to ride their defense to their first win.
This article originally appeared on Chargers Wire: 4 reasons for optimism for Chargers against the Texans in Week 9
